1213 Morven St · Lancaster, CA 93535

$362,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,813 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1977 7,105 sqft lot Est $482k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large 4 bedroom home with an open floor plan that's perfect for everyday living and entertaining. You've got a formal living room, dining room, a spacious family room and a beautiful floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace that really stands out. There's also a built-in bar area - great for drinks, coffee, or whatever fits your lifestyle. Vaulted ceilings make the space feel even bigger and give you plenty of room for a large TV setup. Some updates have already been done; including freshly painted exterior trim, newer carpet in the bedrooms, roof repairs, and a newer water heater. This home has great potential and just needs a little TLC. With your personal touch, it could really shine!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Built in bar area
• Newer carpet

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• BUILT IN BAR AREA
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• NEWER CARPET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $362k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($576/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Lancaster Elementary (suburban): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #1,161 of 1,400 in CA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1169 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,070/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 2494% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($357k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $362k implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $306,997 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $482,258
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1213 Morven St	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,813 (0%)	1mo	$375,000	$207	99
44506 Tabler	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,892 (+4%)	2mo	$416,500	$220	69
44200 Gillan Ave	0.50mi	4/3.0	1,780 (-2%)	2mo	$495,000	$278	68
44520 Fenhold	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,043 (+13%)	2mo	$349,000	$171	63
1010 E Avenue J6	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,714 (-6%)	1mo	$429,995	$251	62
707 E Avenue J4	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,738 (-4%)	2mo	$420,000	$242	61
1503 E Kildare	0.58mi	4/3.0	1,717 (-5%)	1mo	$480,000	$280	59
836 E Pillsbury	0.35mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (-12%)	2mo	$485,000	$302	58
44840 Fenhold	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (-10%)	2mo	$440,000	$270	55
1017 E Avenue J5	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-9%)	1mo	$455,000	$276	55
44919 Fenhold	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,598 (-12%)	2mo	$420,000	$263	51
1605 Bluebell	0.74mi	4/3.0	1,637 (-10%)	1mo	$435,000	$266	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-64,305
• Equity at exit: $54,050

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-85,475
• Equity at exit: $31,342

Cash invested: $101,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1169
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,070 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,901
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,903/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,009

Max offer price $362,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $253	-5% $151	+0% $48	+5% $-55	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-195	-5% $-73	+0% $48	+5% $169	+10% $291
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $140	base $48	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,625
• Closing costs: $10,875
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1253 Morven St Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1813	$2,995	$1.65	16d	1	0.10mi
44732 12th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,600	$1.82	16d	1	0.25mi
44745 Christie Ave Lancaster, CA	5.0	3.0	2289	$3,095	$1.35	11d	1	0.30mi
44745 Christie Ave Lancaster, CA	5.0	3.0	2289	$3,095	$1.35	2d	1	0.30mi
766 E Pillsbury St Lancaster, CA	5.0	2.0	1604	$2,500	$1.56	11d	1	0.40mi
1545 E Avenue J5 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,899	$1.67	2d	1	0.57mi
718 E Avenue J4 Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,885	$1.66	2d	1	0.63mi
44103 Sundance Ct Lancaster, CA	5.0	3.0	2491	$3,800	$1.53	17d	1	0.66mi
1734 Lightcap St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,700	$1.84	2d	1	0.67mi
44908 Logue Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,495	$1.69	2d	1	0.67mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$3,000	$2.38	22d	1	0.75mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$2,895	$2.30	4d	1	0.75mi
45041 Colleen Dr Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1303	$3,100	$2.38	2d	1	0.76mi
44559 Aspen St Lancaster, CA	4.0	4.0	2375	$3,495	$1.47	5d	1	0.78mi
44107 Rodin Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1568	$3,000	$1.91	3d	1	0.82mi
44283 Raysack Ave Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1282	$2,400	$1.87	11d	1	0.86mi
44961 5th St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1248	$2,500	$2.00	2d	1	0.97mi
2141 E Nugent St Lancaster, CA	4.0	3.0	2260	$3,200	$1.42	19d	1	0.97mi
44302 Kirkland Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,250	$1.40	2d	1	0.97mi
43702 Rembrandt St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1272	$2,500	$1.97	19d	1	1.04mi
44514 Stanridge Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,646	$2.10	2d	1	1.06mi
233 E Nugent St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,599	$1.57	2d	1	1.06mi
43837 David St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,450	$1.88	2d	1	1.09mi
44538 2nd St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,380	$1.89	2d	1	1.11mi
44119 Kirkland Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1341	$2,750	$2.05	13d	1	1.12mi
44946 3rd St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1256	$2,395	$1.91	16d	1	1.15mi
43658 Rogier St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,450	$1.72	2d	1	1.15mi
44021 3rd St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1465	$2,900	$1.98	20d	1	1.22mi
44021 3rd St E Unit 44021 Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1465	$3,500	$2.39	2d	1	1.22mi
2500 Topaz Ln Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1274	$2,800	$2.20	24d	1	1.30mi
45402 5th St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1237	$2,775	$2.24	2d	1	1.32mi
44707 Cerisa St Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1714	$3,000	$1.75	11d	1	1.36mi
45428 Raysack Ave Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1244	$2,900	$2.33	2d	1	1.36mi
44709 26th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,300	$1.75	19d	1	1.42mi
2624 Via Verona Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.5	1563	$2,900	$1.86	2d	1	1.44mi
2636 Via Verona Lancaster, CA	5.0	2.5	2019	$3,800	$1.88	4d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   listed $362,500 Active
3. 1993-04-16
   soldstatus $112,000
4. 1979-08-14
   soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,903 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,903 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,306
• − Property taxes: −$3,903
• − Insurance: −$1,812
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,947
• − Management: −$2,947
• − Depreciation: −$10,545
• Taxable loss: −$5,621
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,349
• After-tax cash flow: $1,925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620880
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,440
• Composite: 24.73/100
• National rank: #13028
• State rank: #1161 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1547.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — TAAR
• 2026-03-18 Listed $362,500 TAAR
• 1993-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 1979-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,903 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.