7137 Western Mill Rd · Lawrenceville, VA 23868

$105,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1974

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special or Incredible Value for Buyers! Uncover the massive potential of 7137 Western Mill Road, a 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom detached farmhouse on a half-acre lot, priced as-is. Perfect for savvy investors seeking an equity-building project or homebuyers wanting an affordable property to customize, this 1,164-sq-ft single-level home features wood flooring, a pantry, natural gas heating, and a convenient first-floor bedroom and full bath. This blank canvas is ready for your vision—bring your design ideas and unlock its true value today!

Key facts

• Built 1974
• Listed 10 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Parking: Close to mass transit
• Utilities: Well water; Sewer: Other; Electric water heater
• Home design: Detached ranch; One story with one living level; Crawl foundation; 50' lot front
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Well; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom; Additional bedroom; Bedroom and full bathroom on first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Natural gas heating; Window/wall cooling
• Interior features: Security system; Walk-in closet
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Utility room; Utility closet; Pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $551 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#258 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brunswick County Public School District (rural): math 24% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #130 of 131 in VA (top 99%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Brunswick County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.51%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $42,081
• Equity at exit: $41,210

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $107,861
• Equity at exit: $59,186

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23868

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,473 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $214/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $775

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 546-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $105,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $214 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $861 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$647/yr (+$54/mo · 302.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$214
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,414
• − Management: −$1,414
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $5,173
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,241
• After-tax cash flow: $5,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100480
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -44.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,085
• Composite: 29.44/100
• National rank: #6520
• State rank: #130 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lawrenceville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #9024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,215

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,860 people
• By 2030: 13,946 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 12,029 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 10,370 · -30.2%
• By 2075: 7,708 · -48.1%
• By 2100: 5,718 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 27% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.5) · D 54.1% · R 45.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: 26.5pp · 2024: 8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.5 2020: D+15.0 2016: D+18.7 2012: D+25.3 2008: D+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Current HPI: 98.6309
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $105,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $214 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.