2906 Blade Ave · Bakersfield, CA 93306

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1958 7,405 sqft lot $162/sqft · 18% below area Est $330k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great size home by B. C. Well maintained with wood ceiling throughout. Hot tub and patio in backyard. Sell as is, seller will not do repairs. No REO or short sale. Bring offer!

Key facts

• Big windows
• Large living area
• Built in cabinets

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AREA
• FIREPLACE
• BIG WINDOWS
• KITCHEN WITH APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST AREA
• BUILT IN CABINETS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer
• Home design: Pre-owned property; Vacant
• Construction: Slab foundation; Flat roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; R1 zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central A/C
• Interior features: Formal living room; Formal dining room; Breakfast area; Extended living room; Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Colonel Howard Nichols Elementary (931 students, 82% FRL); Chipman Junior High (727 students, 72% FRL); East Bakersfield High (reading 75%, 2,421 students, 89% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,546 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.70%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,228
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -18.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2906 Blade Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,664 (0%)	1mo	$245,000	$147	99
2901 Kaibab Ave	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,764 (+6%)	0mo	$332,000	$188	89
2907 Driller Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,529 (-8%)	2mo	$350,000	$229	79
3623 Redlands	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,684 (+1%)	3mo	$379,900	$226	74
3319 Candlewood Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-8%)	2mo	$355,000	$231	71
2712 San Pablo Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,862 (+12%)	3mo	$370,000	$199	69
2907 Gill Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,459 (-12%)	3mo	$345,000	$236	66
2905 Idaho St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+7%)	0mo	$360,000	$203	65
2925 Roanoke Ct	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,521 (-9%)	1mo	$310,000	$204	62
3816 Miami St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,593 (-4%)	1mo	$400,000	$251	60
4001 Harvard	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,809 (+9%)	2mo	$360,000	$199	53
3700 Candlewood Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,888 (+14%)	2mo	$394,000	$209	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-52,169
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-60,713
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93306

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,065 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,521/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,201

Max offer price $251,132

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $46	-5% $-30	+0% $-107	+5% $-183	+10% $-260
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-188	+0% $-107	+5% $-25	+10% $56
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-38	base $-107	+0.5pp $-177	+1.0pp $-248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3516 Dana St #3 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,750	$1.20	45d	1	0.31mi
3917 Columbus St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,500	$1.73	25d	1	0.61mi
3815 Columbus St Unit 36 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1291	$1,770	$1.37	4d	1	0.62mi
3815 Columbus St Unit 10 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1090	$1,650	$1.51	4d	1	0.62mi
3824 Christmas Tree Ln Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,975	$1.27	12d	1	0.69mi
4200 Boise St Unit 18A Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,525	$1.40	4d	1	0.69mi
3920 Christmas Tree Ln Unit 3932 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,350	$1.23	4d	1	0.71mi
2708 Occidental St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.5	1251	$1,925	$1.54	45d	1	0.73mi
3915 Costa del Sol Ln Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1626	$2,395	$1.47	45d	1	0.76mi
2661 Sunny Ln Unit C Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1211	$1,550	$1.28	16d	1	0.85mi
3012 Catalina Dr Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,500	$1.25	4d	1	0.86mi
2617 Auburn Ct Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1221	$2,100	$1.72	16d	1	0.98mi
2731 Bernard St Bakersfield, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	740	$1,425	$1.93	4d	10	1.03mi
1309 Telegraph Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,895	$1.58	12d	1	1.03mi
2508 Oswell St Unit Two Bedroom Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1650	$1,650	$1.00	4d	1	1.04mi
2401 Kayoming Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	3.0	1719	$2,500	$1.45	4d	1	1.18mi
5021 Panorama Dr Bakersfield, CA	4.0	3.0	1952	$2,700	$1.38	45d	1	1.28mi
927 University Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1077	$2,300	$2.14	4d	1	1.36mi
2705 Parkfield Ct Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1699	$2,029	$1.19	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-18
   historical Active - Contingent 876-char remark
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $270,000 Active 876-char remark
3. 2013-03-14
   soldstatus $125,000 176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (176 chars)

   Great size home by B. C. Well maintained with wood ceiling throughout. Hot tub and patio in backyard. Sell as is, seller will not do repairs. No REO or short sale. Bring offer!

4. 2013-03-14
   soldstatus $125,000

   Show marketing remark (176 chars)

   Great size home by B. C. Well maintained with wood ceiling throughout. Hot tub and patio in backyard. Sell as is, seller will not do repairs. No REO or short sale. Bring offer!

5. 2013-02-08
   historical 176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (176 chars)

   Great size home by B. C. Well maintained with wood ceiling throughout. Hot tub and patio in backyard. Sell as is, seller will not do repairs. No REO or short sale. Bring offer!

6. 2013-01-30
   listed $125,000 176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (176 chars)

   Great size home by B. C. Well maintained with wood ceiling throughout. Hot tub and patio in backyard. Sell as is, seller will not do repairs. No REO or short sale. Bring offer!

7. 2010-01-12
   price $104,900

   Show marketing remark (233 chars)

   Very pretty NE 3bd 2ba home with used brick fireplace & indoor laundry. Charming wood ceiling & built-in bookcase. Double sinks in updated bath w/ spa tub. Separate living room & family room. Great yard. Call today!

8. 2010-01-12
   soldstatus $115,000

   Show marketing remark (233 chars)

   Very pretty NE 3bd 2ba home with used brick fireplace & indoor laundry. Charming wood ceiling & built-in bookcase. Double sinks in updated bath w/ spa tub. Separate living room & family room. Great yard. Call today!

9. 2009-09-20
   historical

   Show marketing remark (233 chars)

   Very pretty NE 3bd 2ba home with used brick fireplace & indoor laundry. Charming wood ceiling & built-in bookcase. Double sinks in updated bath w/ spa tub. Separate living room & family room. Great yard. Call today!

10. 2009-09-11
    listed $115,000

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    Very pretty NE 3bd 2ba home with used brick fireplace & indoor laundry. Charming wood ceiling & built-in bookcase. Double sinks in updated bath w/ spa tub. Separate living room & family room. Great yard. Call today!

11. 2005-08-02
    price $279,900
12. 2005-08-02
    soldstatus $266,000
13. 2005-08-02
    soldstatus $266,000
14. 2005-05-10
    listed $266,000
15. 2001-03-02
    soldstatus $98,500
16. 2001-03-02
    soldstatus $98,500
17. 2001-01-23
    price $105,000
18. 2001-01-23
    historical
19. 2000-12-27
    listed $98,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,521 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,521 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$2,521
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,983
• − Management: −$1,983
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$6,030
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,447
• After-tax cash flow: $166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bakersfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #21355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bakersfield, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 499,124
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 74,116
• Household income: $69,805
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2871.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 46% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.02%
• Current HPI: 358.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.24%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+148.7% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 2026-05-27 Sold (MLS) $245,000 GEMLS
• 2026-05-25 Pending — GEMLS
• 2026-05-18 Contingent — GEMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $270,000 GEMLS
• 2013-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-14 Sold (MLS) $125,000 GEMLS
• 2013-02-08 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2013-01-30 Listed $125,000 GEMLS
• 2010-01-12 Price Changed $104,900 GEMLS
• 2010-01-12 Sold (MLS) $115,000 GEMLS
• 2009-09-20 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2009-09-11 Listed $115,000 GEMLS
• 2005-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $266,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-02 Sold (MLS) $266,000 GEMLS
• 2005-08-02 Price Changed $279,900 GEMLS
• 2005-05-10 Listed $266,000 GEMLS
• 2001-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records
• 2001-03-02 Sold (MLS) $98,500 GEMLS
• 2001-01-23 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2001-01-23 Price Changed $105,000 GEMLS
• 2000-12-27 Listed $98,500 GEMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,521 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.