42631 W Venture Rd · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,130 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2003 5,624 sqft lot $141/sqft · 22% below area Est $384k · 22% under $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home plus separate Den/Office offers a comfortable and functional layout perfect for families, first-time buyers, or anyone looking to plant roots in one of the Valley's most affordable and fast-growing communities. At just over 2,100 sq ft, there's plenty of room to live, work, and relax. The home sits in an established neighborhood with an HOA that keeps the community looking sharp. Maricopa continues to attract buyers who want more space for their dollar, with easy access to shopping, dining, and a quick commute to the greater Phoenix area. Clean, solid, and ready for its next chapter, Updated Items: AC, Water Heater, Dishwasher, Microwave, All

Key facts

• 5,624 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Quarterly HOA covers street maintenance; Community amenities include golf, lake access, and biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction
• Exterior features: Desert front and back landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back; Automatic timer for front irrigation; Block fencing; Tile roof; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Has heating
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Kitchen island; Pantry; Full bathroom in primary bedroom; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-350 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pima Butte Elementary School (math 42% / reading 49%, grade D-, #333 of 1,109 statewide, top 30%, 428 students, 40% FRL); Maricopa Wells Middle School (math 13% / reading 23%, grade F, #143 of 218 statewide, top 66%, 934 students, 57% FRL); Maricopa High School (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #262 of 381 statewide, top 69%, 2,188 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 862 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,950 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $383,647
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -21.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42538 W Sunland Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,185 (+3%)	1mo	$300,000	$137	82
22085 N Van Loo Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,135 (+0%)	0mo	$340,000	$159	76
42447 W Chambers Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,110 (-1%)	2mo	$379,900	$180	75
43302 W Bunker Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,092 (-2%)	2mo	$430,000	$206	70
43423 W Venture Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	2,218 (+4%)	2mo	$370,000	$167	68
22723 N Aaron Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,938 (-9%)	2mo	$315,000	$163	68
21765 N Backus Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,104 (-1%)	1mo	$345,000	$164	63
43137 W Hillman Dr W	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,937 (-9%)	2mo	$385,000	$199	60
22392 N Balboa Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,950 (-8%)	0mo	$375,000	$192	60
42003 W Hillman Dr	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,858 (-13%)	3mo	$325,000	$175	54
22443 N Davis Way	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,210 (+4%)	2mo	$467,000	$211	50
42351 W Chisholm Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,919 (-10%)	2mo	$412,000	$215	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-45,875
• Equity at exit: $74,012

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-52,719
• Equity at exit: $79,107

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 862
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,505/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,483

Max offer price $238,033

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-180	-5% $-265	+0% $-350	+5% $-435	+10% $-520
Rent	-10% $-511	-5% $-431	+0% $-350	+5% $-270	+10% $-189
Rate	-1.0pp $-199	-0.5pp $-274	base $-350	+0.5pp $-428	+1.0pp $-507

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
42780 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,700	$1.14	25d	1	0.10mi
42706 W Hillman Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2185	$1,855	$0.85	5d	1	0.13mi
42622 W Hillman Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1819	$2,099	$1.15	18d	1	0.13mi
22303 Bishop Dr Unit 1545930P Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1496	$3,871	$2.59	14d	1	0.31mi
22306 N Van Loo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1918	$2,100	$1.09	6d	1	0.33mi
22427 N Van Loo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2314	$1,790	$0.77	7d	1	0.37mi
22427 N Van Loo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2314	$1,735	$0.75	0d	1	0.37mi
43194 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1937	$1,850	$0.96	16d	1	0.37mi
41889 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	3.0	1857	$1,845	$0.99	7d	1	0.50mi
41805 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	2210	$1,925	$0.87	7d	1	0.55mi
41793 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,695	$1.15	0d	1	0.56mi
41793 W Sunland Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,695	$1.15	14d	1	0.56mi
22499 N Dietz Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2130	$3,600	$1.69	3d	1	0.61mi
22427 N Vanderveen Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2855	$1,936	$0.68	7d	1	0.62mi
22463 N Dietz Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,000	$1.10	26d	1	0.63mi
42376 W Chisholm Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2312	$2,000	$0.87	7d	1	0.64mi
21619 N Van Loo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1938	$3,500	$1.81	5d	1	0.67mi
22641 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2169	$1,699	$0.78	46d	1	0.69mi
42187 W Chisholm Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2312	$5,500	$2.38	45d	1	0.69mi
21563 N Greenway Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$3,200	$1.97	0d	1	0.71mi
43914 W Adobe Cir Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2168	$2,070	$0.95	45d	1	0.75mi
22257 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,795	$0.99	45d	1	0.82mi
22257 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,795	$0.99	22d	1	0.82mi
22257 N Gibson Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1806	$1,795	$0.99	26d	1	0.82mi
21657 N Dietz Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2151	$1,899	$0.88	45d	1	0.85mi
43854 W Cahill Dr Unit 1545679P Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1689	$2,258	$1.34	16d	1	0.91mi
43878 W Wade Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1685	$1,750	$1.04	4d	1	0.94mi
41298 W Parkhill Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2037	$2,000	$0.98	45d	1	0.94mi
44171 W Adobe Cir Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2160	$2,100	$0.97	0d	1	0.97mi
43839 W Rio Grande Dr Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1462	$1,650	$1.13	7d	1	0.98mi
43207 W Lindgren Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1907	$1,699	$0.89	45d	1	0.98mi
41201 W Bravo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,799	$1.16	3d	1	0.99mi
21552 N Duncan Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1701	$1,825	$1.07	0d	1	1.00mi
21552 N Liles Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,850	$1.26	45d	1	1.01mi
21061 N Bustos Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1907	$1,749	$0.92	45d	1	1.01mi
43697 W Sagebrush Trl Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1981	$1,600	$0.81	26d	1	1.06mi
41192 W Rio Bravo Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1774	$1,789	$1.01	22d	1	1.08mi
40915 W Agave Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2152	$2,100	$0.98	45d	1	1.09mi
41570 W Dusty Creek Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,750	$1.12	45d	1	1.11mi
21357 N Liles Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	2635	$2,300	$0.87	13d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $299,900 Pending 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,900 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,900 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    price $299,900 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,900 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,900 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    price $315,000 637-char remark
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $324,900 Active 637-char remark
16. 2026-03-27
    historical
17. 2026-03-18
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
18. 2026-02-19
    price $330,000
19. 2026-01-02
    price $341,900
20. 2025-12-01
    listed $349,900 Active
21. 2015-01-18
    listed $153,800
22. 2015-01-18
    historical
23. 2006-03-02
    soldstatus $279,000
24. 2006-02-28
    soldstatus $279,000
25. 2006-01-23
    historical
26. 2006-01-01
    listed $285,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,505 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,505 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$2,505
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$9,630
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,311
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+5.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $299,900 ARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $309,900 ARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $315,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $324,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $330,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $341,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $349,900 ARMLS
• 2015-01-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2015-01-18 Listed $153,800 ARMLS
• 2006-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $279,000 Public Records
• 2006-02-28 Sold (MLS) $279,000 ARMLS
• 2006-01-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-01-01 Listed $285,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,505 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.