551 Summit Trl #157 · Granby, CO 80446

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · SingleFamily · 586 Days on market

Built 2020 Est $275k · 9% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your mountain retreat at Smith Creek Crossing, one of Granby's newest developments. This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has a beautiful open concept in the kitchen, living room, and dining room. The spacious primary bedroom with en suite bathroom and walk-in closet feels like a retreat and separate from the other 3 bedrooms of the home. The kitchen is nicely appointed with a center island for stool seating or enjoy the dining area and cabinetry for plenty of storage. Head down the hallway to the other 3 bedrooms, each with a sizable closet, 2 hallway storage closets, and a 2nd bathroom. A separate laundry area is centrally located with washer and dryer. The lot rent includes use of t

Key facts

• Built 2020
• Listed 586 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land is leased with a monthly land lease payment of $815
• HOA & community: Community spa/hot tub; Storage available; Snow removal

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Electric service on property
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level
• Exterior features: Close to clubhouse; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range/Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Washer/Dryer included; Refrigerator; Range/Oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Dishwasher
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer/Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $712 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 1.4% in Granby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#85 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• East Grand School District No. 2 (rural): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #17 of 86 in CO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 424 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in Grand County in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,247/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 105% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 586 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 586 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.36%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,666
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
551 Summit Trail Trl #22	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,586 (-7%)	12mo	$255,000	$161	75
551 Summit Trl #142	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-6%)	16mo	$255,000	$159	70
551 Summit Trail Trl #34	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-6%)	20mo	$285,000	$178	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $4,987
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $63,279
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80446

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,247 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $712

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,345

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 586 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 585 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 584 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 583 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 581 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 578 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 577 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 576 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 575 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 572 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 571 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 570 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 569 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 568 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 567 DOM
16. 2026-01-22
    price $250,000
17. 2026-01-21
    status Active
18. 2026-01-21
    historical
19. 2025-07-13
    status Active
20. 2025-07-13
    price $260,000
21. 2025-05-17
    status Active
22. 2024-10-12
    price $280,000
23. 2024-07-11
    listed $298,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥81°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$2,752
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,117
• − Management: −$3,117
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $4,953
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,189
• After-tax cash flow: $7,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Grand School District No. 2
• NCES district ID: 0804320
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,903
• Composite: 41.64/100
• National rank: #3424
• State rank: #17 of 86 in CO

Livability — Granby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #7574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Granby, CO
• County: Grand County · 5,874 people
• City population: 4,017
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 4,017
• Household income: $74,973
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 105.0

Population outlook (Grand County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,498 people
• By 2030: 14,215 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,225 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 12,186 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 10,196 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 8,326 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 19% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Portuguese 6% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grand

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.8% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: R+1.8 2016: R+13.5 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.78%
• Current HPI: 347.8691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-16.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $250,000 GCAR
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — GCAR
• 2026-01-21 Delisted — GCAR
• 2025-07-13 Relisted — GCAR
• 2025-07-13 Price Changed $260,000 GCAR
• 2025-05-17 Relisted — GCAR
• 2024-10-12 Price Changed $280,000 GCAR
• 2024-07-11 Listed $298,000 GCAR