2978 Elmwood Ct · Auburn Hills, MI 48360

$114,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 882 sqft · Condo public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1973 $400/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lake Living Without the Maintenance! Enjoy carefree living in this beautiful upper-level condo with access to stunning Voorheis Lake. Nestled in a highly sought-after community, this home offers the perfect blend of tranquility and convenience, just minutes from shopping, dining, entertainment, and award-winning Lake Orion schools. Recent updates include a new dishwasher, bathroom flooring, toilet, and carpet, making this home move-in ready. Whether you're enjoying the peaceful surroundings or taking advantage of the nearby amenities, you'll love the lifestyle this exceptional location has to offer.

Key facts

• $400 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-687/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (8.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $114k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Auburn Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#151 in MI, #3,766 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Webber School (math 70% / reading 76%, grade A, #50 of 1,397 statewide, top 4%, 518 students, 20% FRL); Waldon Middle School (math 45% / reading 61%, grade C+, #90 of 493 statewide, top 19%, 547 students, 26% FRL); Lake Orion Community High School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #46 of 713 statewide, top 7%, 2,174 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $788 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.

Recommended offer $103,885 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.15%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-21,909
• Equity at exit: $16,998

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-22,920
• Equity at exit: $9,857

Cash invested: $31,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48360

• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$598
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $628/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,389

Max offer price $103,885

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7	-5% $-25	+0% $-57	+5% $-90	+10% $-122
Rent	-10% $-161	-5% $-109	+0% $-57	+5% $-5	+10% $47
Rate	-1.0pp $0	-0.5pp $-28	base $-57	+0.5pp $-87	+1.0pp $-117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,500
• Closing costs: $3,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3355 Thornwood Trl Orion Twp, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	613	$1,317	$2.15	0d	19	0.57mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $114,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   price $114,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 606-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $120,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $628 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,192 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$564/yr (+$47/mo · 89.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,386
• − Property taxes: −$628
• − Insurance: −$570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,264
• − Management: −$1,264
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$3,316
• Taxable loss: −$2,425
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$582
• After-tax cash flow: $-105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Auburn Hills

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #3766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,514
• Population (ZIP): 12,250

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.18%
• Current HPI: 180.3844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $130,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $628 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.