23 Willow Way · Indian Mountain Lake, PA 18210

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1973 0.39 ac lot Est $216k · 7% under $113/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MULTIPLE OFFERS, HIGHTEST AND BEST BY 5:00 pm TODAY Your classic Mountain Chalet 2-bedroom, 1 bath, loft has built in bunk beds for 4, all appliances super low taxes $1789 per year. Large shed, no grass to cut, fireplace with propane logs. Nice size screen in porch, Furniture is negotiable. Home in move in condition, located in short term rental friendly community with 5 lakes 2 pools, tennis, basketball, 24-hour security with guarded gates, near all major Pocono attractions

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Built-in bunks
• Large living area

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AREA
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• SCREENED PORCH
• LARGE SLEEPING LOFT
• BUILT-IN BUNKS
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.0% in Indian Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#1,349 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jim Thorpe Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #394 of 539 in PA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Penn-Kidder Campus (math 18% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,518 statewide, top 73%, 571 students, 62% FRL); Jim Thorpe Area Hs (math 62% / reading 75%, grade B, #53 of 437 statewide, top 13%, 565 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 38% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Jim Thorpe Area SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 457 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 180 units permitted in Carbon County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carbon County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $102k; list at $200k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.66%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,712
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Willow Way	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (0%)	0mo	$188,000	$187	95
182 Mountain Rd	0.36mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	2mo	$162,500	$169	74
66 Hunter Ln	0.38mi	3/1.0	980 (-3%)	12mo	$230,000	$235	68
29 Long Brook Way	0.25mi	4/1.0 (+1)	960 (-5%)	10mo	$205,000	$214	67
101 Mohawk Trl	0.39mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	9mo	$180,000	$188	66
103 Sycamore Cir	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,009 (+0%)	3mo	$245,000	$243	65
26 Grouse Trl	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,128 (+12%)	6mo	$265,000	$235	63
193 N Shore Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+1%)	11mo	$115,000	$113	58
102 Shore Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-11%)	10mo	$217,900	$242	57
109 Sycamore Cir	0.61mi	3/1.5	992 (-2%)	12mo	$225,000	$227	57
12 Larch Ln	0.64mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	9mo	$150,000	$156	55
9 Pine Tree Rd	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,072 (+6%)	6mo	$225,000	$210	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,675
• Equity at exit: $30,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $29,165
• Equity at exit: $19,019

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18210

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 457
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,790/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,764

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $517	-5% $461	+0% $404	+5% $347	+10% $291
Rent	-10% $224	-5% $314	+0% $404	+5% $494	+10% $584
Rate	-1.0pp $505	-0.5pp $455	base $404	+0.5pp $352	+1.0pp $299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35 Grouse Trl Albrightsville, PA	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,500	$1.79	16d	1	0.33mi
182 Mountain Rd Albrightsville, PA	3.0	1.0	960	$2,100	$2.19	4d	1	0.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $113 · $1,356/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   status Pending 479-char remark

   Show marketing remark (479 chars)

   MULTIPLE OFFERS, HIGHTEST AND BEST BY 5:00 pm TODAY Your classic Mountain Chalet 2-bedroom, 1 bath, loft has built in bunk beds for 4, all appliances super low taxes $1789 per year. Large shed, no grass to cut, fireplace with propane logs. Nice size screen in porch, Furniture is negotiable. Home in move in condition, located in short term rental friendly community with 5 lakes 2 pools, tennis, basketball, 24-hour security with guarded gates, near all major Pocono attractions

3. 2026-04-14
   listed $199,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (479 chars)

   MULTIPLE OFFERS, HIGHTEST AND BEST BY 5:00 pm TODAY Your classic Mountain Chalet 2-bedroom, 1 bath, loft has built in bunk beds for 4, all appliances super low taxes $1789 per year. Large shed, no grass to cut, fireplace with propane logs. Nice size screen in porch, Furniture is negotiable. Home in move in condition, located in short term rental friendly community with 5 lakes 2 pools, tennis, basketball, 24-hour security with guarded gates, near all major Pocono attractions

4. 2026-04-14
   listed $199,900 Active 479-char remark

   Show marketing remark (479 chars)

   MULTIPLE OFFERS, HIGHTEST AND BEST BY 5:00 pm TODAY Your classic Mountain Chalet 2-bedroom, 1 bath, loft has built in bunk beds for 4, all appliances super low taxes $1789 per year. Large shed, no grass to cut, fireplace with propane logs. Nice size screen in porch, Furniture is negotiable. Home in move in condition, located in short term rental friendly community with 5 lakes 2 pools, tennis, basketball, 24-hour security with guarded gates, near all major Pocono attractions

5. 2006-07-06
   soldstatus $102,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,790 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,474 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$684/yr (+$57/mo · 38.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,790
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,185
• − Management: −$2,185
• − HOA: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $1,780
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$427
• After-tax cash flow: $4,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jim Thorpe Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4212540
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $53,476
• Composite: 31.42/100
• National rank: #5988
• State rank: #394 of 539 in PA

Livability — Indian Mountain Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #1349
• US rank: #16713

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Indian Mountain Lake, PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,879

Population outlook (Carbon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,643 people
• By 2030: 59,840 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 55,413 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 50,843 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 43,326 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 37,126 · -39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Russian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carbon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.8) · D 32.2% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.9pp · 2024: -34.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.8 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+6.9 2008: D+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.89%
• Current HPI: 203.8099
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+96.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-04-14 Listed $199,900 PMAR
• 2026-04-14 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,790 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.