159 Yellow Pine Rd · Heflin, LA 71073

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

Built 2020 2.01 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * WOW, Just Reduced with a GREAT New Price * * This is a Gorgeous Modular Home on 2.0 Acres. This home was Built in 2020. It offers the Open Concept and Neutral Colors Throughout. Kitchen is STUNNING!!! Lots off Counter Space, Cabinets and Island. Stainless Appliances. Remote Master With Large Tub and Stand-Up Shower. Spacious Bedrooms With Large Closet Space.

Key facts

• 2.01 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2020

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-441/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Webster Parish (town): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #67 of 98 in LA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (math 17% / reading 12%, grade F, #516 of 646 statewide, top 82%, 422 students, 37% FRL); Lakeside Junior-Senior High School (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #98 of 265 statewide, top 38%, 557 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 61% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Webster Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Webster County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,388 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.79%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $21,706
• Equity at exit: $89,929

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $80,511
• Equity at exit: $138,591

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71073

• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,554 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,585/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,600

Max offer price $193,514

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $77	-5% $20	+0% $-37	+5% $-93	+10% $-150
Rent	-10% $-159	-5% $-98	+0% $-37	+5% $25	+10% $86
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $14	base $-37	+0.5pp $-89	+1.0pp $-141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-11
   listed $200,000 Active
3. 2022-01-14
   soldstatus Sold 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   * * WOW, Just Reduced with a GREAT New Price * * This is a Gorgeous Modular Home on 2.0 Acres. This home was Built in 2020. It offers the Open Concept and Neutral Colors Throughout. Kitchen is STUNNING!!! Lots off Counter Space, Cabinets and Island. Stainless Appliances. Remote Master With Large Tub and Stand-Up Shower. Spacious Bedrooms With Large Closet Space.

4. 2022-01-14
   soldstatus $188,000

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   * * WOW, Just Reduced with a GREAT New Price * * This is a Gorgeous Modular Home on 2.0 Acres. This home was Built in 2020. It offers the Open Concept and Neutral Colors Throughout. Kitchen is STUNNING!!! Lots off Counter Space, Cabinets and Island. Stainless Appliances. Remote Master With Large Tub and Stand-Up Shower. Spacious Bedrooms With Large Closet Space.

5. 2021-12-14
   status Pending 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   * * WOW, Just Reduced with a GREAT New Price * * This is a Gorgeous Modular Home on 2.0 Acres. This home was Built in 2020. It offers the Open Concept and Neutral Colors Throughout. Kitchen is STUNNING!!! Lots off Counter Space, Cabinets and Island. Stainless Appliances. Remote Master With Large Tub and Stand-Up Shower. Spacious Bedrooms With Large Closet Space.

6. 2021-12-14
   historical Active Contingent 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   * * WOW, Just Reduced with a GREAT New Price * * This is a Gorgeous Modular Home on 2.0 Acres. This home was Built in 2020. It offers the Open Concept and Neutral Colors Throughout. Kitchen is STUNNING!!! Lots off Counter Space, Cabinets and Island. Stainless Appliances. Remote Master With Large Tub and Stand-Up Shower. Spacious Bedrooms With Large Closet Space.

7. 2021-11-26
   price $210,000 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   * * WOW, Just Reduced with a GREAT New Price * * This is a Gorgeous Modular Home on 2.0 Acres. This home was Built in 2020. It offers the Open Concept and Neutral Colors Throughout. Kitchen is STUNNING!!! Lots off Counter Space, Cabinets and Island. Stainless Appliances. Remote Master With Large Tub and Stand-Up Shower. Spacious Bedrooms With Large Closet Space.

8. 2021-11-09
   price $215,000 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   * * WOW, Just Reduced with a GREAT New Price * * This is a Gorgeous Modular Home on 2.0 Acres. This home was Built in 2020. It offers the Open Concept and Neutral Colors Throughout. Kitchen is STUNNING!!! Lots off Counter Space, Cabinets and Island. Stainless Appliances. Remote Master With Large Tub and Stand-Up Shower. Spacious Bedrooms With Large Closet Space.

9. 2021-07-06
   price $220,000 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   * * WOW, Just Reduced with a GREAT New Price * * This is a Gorgeous Modular Home on 2.0 Acres. This home was Built in 2020. It offers the Open Concept and Neutral Colors Throughout. Kitchen is STUNNING!!! Lots off Counter Space, Cabinets and Island. Stainless Appliances. Remote Master With Large Tub and Stand-Up Shower. Spacious Bedrooms With Large Closet Space.

10. 2021-06-16
    listed $240,000 Active 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    * * WOW, Just Reduced with a GREAT New Price * * This is a Gorgeous Modular Home on 2.0 Acres. This home was Built in 2020. It offers the Open Concept and Neutral Colors Throughout. Kitchen is STUNNING!!! Lots off Counter Space, Cabinets and Island. Stainless Appliances. Remote Master With Large Tub and Stand-Up Shower. Spacious Bedrooms With Large Closet Space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,585 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,585 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,585
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,492
• − Management: −$1,492
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$946
• After-tax cash flow: $506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201890
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -39.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -38.00%
• Median HH income: $33,011
• Composite: 17.5/100
• National rank: #9055
• State rank: #67 of 98 in LA

Livability — Heflin

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #12512

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,686

Population outlook (Webster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,736 people
• By 2030: 36,203 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 32,988 · -12.6%
• By 2050: 29,743 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 22,346 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 15,045 · -60.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% White 42% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Webster

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 31.2% · R 67.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -26.3pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+31.1 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2022-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $188,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-14 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-12-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-12-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-11-26 Price Changed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2021-11-09 Price Changed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2021-07-06 Price Changed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2021-06-16 Listed $240,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+24.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,585 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.