545 Lewis Bray Rd · Burnside, KY 42519

$287,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1999 1.80 ac lot $145/sqft · 32% below area Est $529k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perched on a hill and just minutes from the beautiful waters of Lake Cumberland, this charming property offers the perfect blend of space, versatility, and scenic surroundings. Nestled on just under 2 acres, the home enjoys peaceful elevated views that create a relaxing, private setting while still being conveniently close to town and recreational amenities. The main residence features a spacious and functional layout with 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, ideal for families of all sizes. The heart of the home is the expansive living room that flows seamlessly into a well-appointed kitchen, offering an abundance of cabinet and countertop space, along with stainless steel appliances—perfect for everyday living and entertaining alike. Adding exceptional value and flexibility, the property also includes an attached studio apartment. Whether you're looking for a private in-law suite, guest quarters, or an income-producing opportunity, this additional living space opens the door to multiple possibilities. Step outside and enjoy the inviting covered back porch—an ideal spot for relaxing, grilling, or taking in the surrounding views. The porch conveniently connects to a large garage, providing ample space for vehicles, storage, or even a workshop. With its prime location near Lake Cumberland, generous acreage, versatile layout, and added income potential, this property is a rare find that offers both comfort and opportunity.

Key facts

• 1.8 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $288k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-518 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (31.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (45.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (45.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Burnside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#141 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pulaski County (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #17 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($270k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $97k; list at $288k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,794 (45.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.73%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $528,816
• List price: $287,500
• Delta: -45.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Lewis Bray Rd	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,738 (-12%)	8mo	$220,000	$127	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $36,311
• Equity at exit: $166,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $136,689
• Equity at exit: $289,858

Cash invested: $80,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42519

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,568 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,508
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,555/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,224

Max offer price $195,926

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-356	-5% $-437	+0% $-518	+5% $-600	+10% $-681
Rent	-10% $-642	-5% $-580	+0% $-518	+5% $-456	+10% $-395
Rate	-1.0pp $-374	-0.5pp $-445	base $-518	+0.5pp $-593	+1.0pp $-669

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,875
• Closing costs: $8,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $287,500 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $287,500 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $287,500 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $287,500 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $287,500 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $287,500 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $287,500 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $287,500 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $287,500 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $287,500 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $287,500 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $287,500 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $287,500 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $287,500 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $287,500 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $287,500 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $287,500 Active 65 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    price $287,500 1456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1456 chars)

    Perched on a hill and just minutes from the beautiful waters of Lake Cumberland, this charming property offers the perfect blend of space, versatility, and scenic surroundings. Nestled on just under 2 acres, the home enjoys peaceful elevated views that create a relaxing, private setting while still being conveniently close to town and recreational amenities. The main residence features a spacious and functional layout with 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, ideal for families of all sizes. The heart of the home is the expansive living room that flows seamlessly into a well-appointed kitchen, offering an abundance of cabinet and countertop space, along with stainless steel appliances—perfect for everyday living and entertaining alike. Adding exceptional value and flexibility, the property also includes an attached studio apartment. Whether you're looking for a private in-law suite, guest quarters, or an income-producing opportunity, this additional living space opens the door to multiple possibilities. Step outside and enjoy the inviting covered back porch—an ideal spot for relaxing, grilling, or taking in the surrounding views. The porch conveniently connects to a large garage, providing ample space for vehicles, storage, or even a workshop. With its prime location near Lake Cumberland, generous acreage, versatile layout, and added income potential, this property is a rare find that offers both comfort and opportunity.

19. 2026-03-26
    listed $289,900 Active 1456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1456 chars)

    Perched on a hill and just minutes from the beautiful waters of Lake Cumberland, this charming property offers the perfect blend of space, versatility, and scenic surroundings. Nestled on just under 2 acres, the home enjoys peaceful elevated views that create a relaxing, private setting while still being conveniently close to town and recreational amenities. The main residence features a spacious and functional layout with 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, ideal for families of all sizes. The heart of the home is the expansive living room that flows seamlessly into a well-appointed kitchen, offering an abundance of cabinet and countertop space, along with stainless steel appliances—perfect for everyday living and entertaining alike. Adding exceptional value and flexibility, the property also includes an attached studio apartment. Whether you're looking for a private in-law suite, guest quarters, or an income-producing opportunity, this additional living space opens the door to multiple possibilities. Step outside and enjoy the inviting covered back porch—an ideal spot for relaxing, grilling, or taking in the surrounding views. The porch conveniently connects to a large garage, providing ample space for vehicles, storage, or even a workshop. With its prime location near Lake Cumberland, generous acreage, versatile layout, and added income potential, this property is a rare find that offers both comfort and opportunity.

20. 2014-03-26
    soldstatus $96,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,555 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,472 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$918/yr (+$76/mo · 59.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,104
• − Property taxes: −$1,555
• − Insurance: −$1,438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − Depreciation: −$8,364
• Taxable loss: −$11,656
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,797
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,423/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pulaski County
• NCES district ID: 2104950
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,366
• Composite: 39.69/100
• National rank: #3906
• State rank: #17 of 165 in KY

Livability — Burnside

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,800

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,414 people
• By 2030: 65,828 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 65,972 · +0.9%
• By 2050: 65,108 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 61,647 · -5.8%
• By 2100: 53,613 · -18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.2) · D 16.9% · R 82.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -55.4pp · 2024: -65.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.2 2020: R+62.7 2016: R+66.7 2012: R+60.5 2008: R+55.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Current HPI: 358.2137
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+196.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $287,500 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $289,900 ImagineMLS
• 2014-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $96,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,555 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.