Is 3033 Helios Haven Dr in Brookshire, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.3% cap rate and $-630/mo modeled cash flow at a $319,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 3033 Helios Haven Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,691/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 29.28

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.5/30.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Rent growth +2.2/5.0
Schools +2.2/10.0
1% rule +2.1/10.0
DSCR +0.8/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$319,000

3033 Helios Haven Dr · Brookshire, TX 77423

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,408 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,420 sqft lot Garage $144/mo HOA · 5% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

GORGEOUS NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 2 STORY IN SUNTERRA LAKES! SIX BEDROOMS! GREAT LOCATION! This spacious 2,408 SQ FT home offers a fantastic floorplan with plenty of room for everyone! Welcoming foyer leads to a bright family room and gourmet island kitchen with abundant cabinetry, breakfast bar, walk-in pantry and dining area. Spacious primary suite offers a wonderful bath and generous walk-in closet. Four additional bedrooms are located upstairs, plus a sixth bedroom providing flexible space for guests, an office or game room. Convenient utility room inside! High ceilings, modern finishes, stainless steel appliances, covered patio and sprinkler system add comfort and convenience.

Key facts

Community pool
Covered patio
Walk-in pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $319k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-630 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (10.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (15.6% below list).
Recommended offer: $269k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1559 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $269,079 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.71% ✗
Cap rate: 4.29%
Cash-on-cash: -7.15%
DSCR: 0.68
GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $377,990
List price: $319,000
Delta: -15.61%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1056 Selene Sky Dr	0.11mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,733 (+14%)	1mo	$369,990	$135	67
1032 Selene Sky Dr	0.09mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,733 (+14%)	6mo	$377,990	$138	64
1008 Sunlit Cir	0.45mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,722 (+13%)	5mo	$375,040	$138	48
1060 Sunlit Cir	0.54mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,722 (+13%)	6mo	$380,790	$140	43
1116 Sunlit Cir	0.59mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,722 (+13%)	7mo	$380,790	$140	40
1096 Sunlit Cir	0.61mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,722 (+13%)	8mo	$299,990	$110	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -32.3%
Equity multiple: -0.03×
Total profit: $-109,163
Equity at exit: $56,360

10-year hold

IRR: -60.8%
Equity multiple: -0.67×
Total profit: $-176,714
Equity at exit: $32,682

Cash invested: $105,837 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 35 active · 8 under contract
Months of supply: 26.2 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $335,990 ($141/sqft)
Median days on market: 82 d
This list price: 26% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +11.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

Rents YoY: -1.0%
Active inventory: 1559
Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,691 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,982
Tax est. 1.5%: −$472 /mo · $5,670/yr
Insurance: −$157
HOA: −$144
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
Net cashflow: $-630

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,489

Max offer price $286,759

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-369	-5% $-500	+0% $-630	+5% $-761	+10% $-892
Rent	-10% $-843	-5% $-737	+0% $-630	+5% $-524	+10% $-418
Rate	-1.0pp $-440	-0.5pp $-534	base $-630	+0.5pp $-728	+1.0pp $-828

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $94,498
Closing costs: $11,340
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Community pool and curbs in neighborhood
Financial info: Lease not considered
HOA & community: Sunterra Property Owners AssociationAnnual association fee collected (annually)

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (builder: DR. Horton)One primary entry level with two-story layoutComposition roofSlab foundationFacing direction not specified
Construction: Built in 2026Brick, cement siding and stone exterior materials
Exterior features: DeckPatioPrivate yard with backyard fencingSprinkler/irrigation systemSubdivision setting

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveDisposal
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 12)Five additional bedrooms on the second floor (each approx. 10 x 10)
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
Interior features: High ceilingsQuartz countersProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsTankless water heater
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $319,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $319,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $319,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $319,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $319,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $319,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $319,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $319,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $319,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $319,000 Active 45 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $319,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $319,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $319,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $319,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $319,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $319,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $319,000 Active 38 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $319,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $319,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $319,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $319,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $319,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $319,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $319,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $319,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $319,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $319,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $319,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-10-10

pricedays on market $319,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $320,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $320,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $320,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $320,000 Active 22 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $320,000 Active 21 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $320,000 Active 20 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $320,000 Active 19 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $320,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $320,000 Active 17 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $320,000 Active 16 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $320,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $320,000 Active 14 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $320,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $320,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $320,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $320,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $320,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $320,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $320,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $320,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $320,000 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $32,289
− Mortgage interest: −$21,173
− Property taxes: −$5,670
− Insurance: −$1,890
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,583
− Management: −$2,583
− HOA: −$1,728
− Depreciation: −$10,996
Taxable loss: −$14,334

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,440
After-tax cash flow: $-4,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and good interior walls. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from landscaping and curb appeal improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
Both Upgrading the landscaping — A well-maintained yard can increase the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers or renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal Early Childhood Center Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Royal ISD
NCES district ID: 4838190
Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $41,059
Composite: 19.55/100
National rank: #8760
State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

Score: 62/100
State rank: #960
US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Waller County · 60,772 people
City population: 18,767
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 18,767
Household income: $84,490
Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 60,772 people
By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
Current HPI: 204.8709
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-0.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

2026-09-14 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
2026-08-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-04-03 Price Changed $309,990 HARMLS
2026-03-20 Price Changed $321,990 HARMLS
2026-02-18 Price Changed $305,990 HARMLS
2026-02-03 Price Changed $329,990 HARMLS
2026-01-29 Listed $320,990 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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