9757 Black Gum St · Willis, TX 77318

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 2,378 sqft lot Est $144k · 6% under $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Postive cash flowing investement property. Tenant occupied. No showings without an executed contract. Perfect opportunity to purchase a turnkey cash flowing property in a phenomenal area that is experiencing growth. Part of a 3 home package beeing sold together. 9757 Black Gum St. Willis TX (MLS 78548677), 9759 Black Gum St. Willis (MLS Number: 79562045), TX, and 9595 Darkwood St. Willis, TX (MLS Number: 48072007)

Key facts

• 2,378 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2022

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Walnut Cove POA; Community amenities include basketball court, boat ramp, clubhouse, playground, pickleball, park, and pool; Association fee $57 quarterly

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level: first floor
• Construction: Built in 2022; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven and electric range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 10); Second bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 10)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen and family room combined; Pantry; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.41%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9770 Blackgum Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	988 (+10%)	2mo	$158,000	$160	75
10088 Calendar St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	930 (+3%)	1mo	$159,900	$172	74
11712 White Cedar St	0.27mi	2/1.0	855 (-5%)	2mo	$145,000	$170	73
9775 Black Gum	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+11%)	4mo	$154,900	$155	71
9763 Blackgum St	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+11%)	6mo	$159,900	$160	70
9864 Arbor Oak St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+11%)	1mo	$159,900	$160	69
9866 Arbor Oak St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+11%)	1mo	$159,900	$160	69
9868 Arbor Oak St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+11%)	1mo	$159,900	$160	69
9583 Darkwood St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+11%)	6mo	$159,900	$160	66
11847 Nelwood St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+11%)	2mo	$159,900	$160	65
11753 White Cedar St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+11%)	1mo	$159,900	$160	63
11755 White Cedar St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+11%)	1mo	$159,900	$160	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-15,557
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-16,534
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,501 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,289

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	43d	1	0.06mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	2d	1	0.06mi
9992 Calendar St Willis, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	43d	1	0.07mi
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	43d	1	0.25mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	43d	1	0.26mi
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	43d	1	0.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $135,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    status Active
15. 2026-05-22
    historical
16. 2026-05-21
    status Active
17. 2026-04-17
    status Pending
18. 2026-04-13
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-13
    status Active
20. 2026-04-01
    historical
21. 2026-03-26
    listed $135,000 Active
22. 2023-10-12
    historical $1,250
23. 2023-08-23
    listed $1,250
24. 2022-09-30
    historical
25. 2022-09-21
    historical
26. 2022-09-21
    listed $149,900 Active
27. 2022-09-13
    listed $149,900 Active
28. 2022-09-13
    historical
29. 2022-08-31
    listed $154,900 Active
30. 2022-08-31
    historical
31. 2022-08-10
    price $154,900
32. 2022-07-07
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$1,472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$89
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$21
• After-tax cash flow: $2,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is a turnkey investment property with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and interior walls, landscaping, and adding smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances property's visual appeal and can attract more tenants
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase property's market value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances property's visual appeal and can attract more tenants ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase property's market value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-12 Rental Removed $1,250 HARMLS
• 2023-08-23 Listed for Rent $1,250 HARMLS
• 2022-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-09-21 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2022-09-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-09-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-09-13 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2022-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-08-31 Listed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2022-08-10 Price Changed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2022-07-07 Listed $149,900 HARMLS