187 Chester St · Buffalo, NY 14208

$99,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1826 2,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 187 Chester St, a delightful three-bedroom, one-bathroom home that offers an excellent opportunity for both owner-occupants and savvy investors. Nestled in a desirable area. The home features three bedrooms, 1 1/2 bathrooms, plenty of space, and is ready for your personal touch. With some cosmetic updates, this property can truly shine and become a perfect investment. Whether you're looking to create your dream home or seeking a promising rental opportunity, 187 Chester St. offers the flexibility to meet your needs. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a home in a great location with endless potential.

Key facts

• 2,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1826
• Listed 8 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $872 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,837/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 723% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $99k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1826 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1826 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.73%
• DSCR: 2.68
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,976
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
187 Chester St	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,456 (0%)	1mo	$99,000	$68	99
146 Waverly St	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,456 (0%)	8mo	$250,000	$172	90
188 Waverly St	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,541 (+6%)	15mo	$264,000	$171	77
273 Purdy St	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (+4%)	6mo	$90,000	$59	76
71 Chester St	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,300 (-11%)	2mo	$250,000	$192	70
131 Woodlawn Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+4%)	21mo	$240,000	$159	61
170 Oxford Ave	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,538 (+6%)	17mo	$316,000	$205	60
59 Landon St	0.63mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,424 (-2%)	14mo	$76,500	$54	48
770 W Ferry St, #35	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,330 (-9%)	2mo	$479,000	$360	47
119 Purdy St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,269 (-13%)	18mo	$150,000	$118	43
15 Blaine Ave	0.48mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,615 (+11%)	19mo	$290,000	$180	36
1319 Michigan Ave	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,301 (-11%)	22mo	$155,000	$119	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $39,429
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $105,660
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14208

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $230/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $872

Break-even live

Break-even rent $734

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1786 Main St Unit 104 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1256	$1,875	$1.49	43d	1	0.22mi
1786 Main St Unit 103 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1110	$1,677	$1.51	43d	1	0.22mi
102 Florida St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1296	$1,650	$1.27	43d	1	0.22mi
76 Chester St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	14d	1	0.24mi
238 Oxford Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	23d	1	0.41mi
104 Butler Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	43d	1	0.51mi
179 Donaldson Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	3d	1	0.62mi
184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1496	$3,226	$2.16	14d	1	0.65mi
75 Inwood Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1175	$1,550	$1.32	43d	1	0.72mi
88 W Utica St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	990	$2,150	$2.17	3d	1	0.75mi
88 W Utica St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	990	$2,150	$2.17	14d	1	0.75mi
1560 Delaware Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,800	$2.80	23d	1	0.77mi
121 Humboldt Pkwy Unit B Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1265	$1,750	$1.38	43d	1	0.77mi
117 Humboldt Pkwy Unit A Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1105	$2,300	$2.08	43d	1	0.78mi
107 Humboldt Pkwy Unit A Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1172	$1,995	$1.70	43d	1	0.78mi
2 Agassiz Cir Unit B Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	983	$2,050	$2.09	23d	1	0.81mi
2 Agassiz Cir Unit A Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1076	$2,150	$2.00	23d	1	0.81mi
825 Forest Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	3d	1	0.86mi
825 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	23d	1	0.86mi
685 Auburn Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	14d	1	0.87mi
685 Auburn Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	44d	1	0.87mi
664 Auburn Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	43d	1	0.92mi
916 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,625	$2.17	3d	9	0.92mi
888 Delaware Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	899	$2,440	$2.71	23d	1	0.99mi
569 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	11d	1	1.03mi
1152 Main St Apt 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	14d	1	1.03mi
130 Linwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	23d	1	1.04mi
117 Bidwell Pkwy Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1192	$1,500	$1.26	3d	1	1.04mi
1015 Elmwood Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	43d	1	1.06mi
408 Winslow Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	14d	1	1.08mi
305 W Utica St Unit B302 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1180	$2,060	$1.75	14d	1	1.11mi
451 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1633	$3,305	$2.02	43d	1	1.12mi
217 Norwood Ave Apt 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1500	$2,700	$1.80	43d	1	1.22mi
19 North St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1306	$2,910	$2.23	10d	7	1.23mi
118 Ashland Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1326	$1,850	$1.40	14d	1	1.27mi
344 Elmwood Ave Unit 3rd floor Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	23d	1	1.28mi
40 North St Unit 306 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$1,950	$1.73	43d	1	1.28mi
213 Summer St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1020	$2,450	$2.40	21d	1	1.29mi
983 Michigan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$3,202	$3.98	2d	58	1.30mi
478 Breckenridge St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,575	$1.43	43d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $99,000 Active
3. 2017-07-30
   historical
4. 2017-02-17
   price $59,900
5. 2017-01-30
   listed $49,900 Active
6. 2004-05-05
   soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $230 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$722/yr (+$60/mo · 314.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$230
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,763
• − Management: −$1,763
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $9,365
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,248
• After-tax cash flow: $8,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,572
• Household income: $48,476
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 723.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 15% Asian 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Hispanic 0%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Philippines
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.37%
• Current HPI: 459.2084
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+70.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $99,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-07-30 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-02-17 Price Changed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-01-30 Listed $49,900 WNYREIS
• 2004-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $230 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.