848 Station Rd · North Bellport, NY 11713

$199,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1955 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this distressed fixer-upper offering strong potential for the right buyer. This property is ideal for investors, renovators, or homeowners looking to restore and customize a home to their own vision. While the home requires repairs and renovation, it presents a rare opportunity to add value through thoughtful improvements. With the right planning and workmanship, this property can be transformed into a comfortable residence or a profitable investment. Bring your design ideas, renovation experience, and long-term vision. This is a true project property with meaningful upside. Sold as-is. Buyer to verify condition and potential.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 32 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 4.9% in North Bellport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#842 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• South Country Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #460 of 755 in NY (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frank P Long Intermediate School (math 10% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,702 of 2,108 statewide, top 82%, 576 students, 58% FRL); Bellport Middle School (math 64% / reading 54%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 838 students, 56% FRL); Bellport Senior High School (math 86% / reading 64%, grade A-, #630 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 1,392 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.39%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $486,818
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
848 Station Rd	0.00mi	4/1.0	1,114 (0%)	1mo	$280,000	$251	100
825 Doane Ave	0.13mi	4/1.0	1,112 (-0%)	11mo	$505,000	$454	84
509 Hampton Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (-1%)	6mo	$575,000	$521	79
608 Bayview Ave	0.43mi	4/2.5	1,080 (-3%)	3mo	$620,000	$574	66
635 Provost Ave	0.59mi	4/1.0	1,045 (-6%)	3mo	$447,000	$428	59
833 Doane Ave	0.13mi	3/1.0 (-1)	950 (-15%)	9mo	$415,000	$437	57
609 Michigan Ave	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	968 (-13%)	7mo	$419,000	$433	48
2 Hollow St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,216 (+9%)	2mo	$385,000	$317	44
718 Taylor Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,224 (+10%)	8mo	$580,000	$474	42
941 Provost Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	964 (-14%)	9mo	$400,000	$415	41
49 Sundial Ln	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	996 (-11%)	12mo	$550,000	$552	39
625 Scherger Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-10%)	11mo	$399,000	$399	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $40,322
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $129,411
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11713

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,561 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$542 /mo · $6,509/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$748
• Net cashflow: $1,138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,120

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,251	-5% $1,195	+0% $1,138	+5% $1,082	+10% $1,025
Rent	-10% $857	-5% $998	+0% $1,138	+5% $1,279	+10% $1,420
Rate	-1.0pp $1,239	-0.5pp $1,189	base $1,138	+0.5pp $1,086	+1.0pp $1,034

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
849 Walker Ave Bellport, NY	3.0	1.0	884	$3,500	$3.96	5d	1	0.13mi
655 Post Ave Bellport, NY	3.0	1.0	1008	$3,350	$3.32	11d	1	0.28mi
640 Post Ave Bellport, NY	3.0	1.0	1024	$3,400	$3.32	0d	1	0.32mi
718 Provost Ave Bellport, NY	4.0	1.0	1100	$4,000	$3.64	44d	1	0.55mi
91 Circuit Rd Bellport, NY	3.0	1.5	1154	$4,500	$3.90	25d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-03
   listed $199,999 Active
3. 2006-03-10
   soldstatus $240,000
4. 2001-10-26
   soldstatus $100,000
5. 2001-02-24
   soldstatus $55,000
6. 1997-02-10
   soldstatus $83,000
7. 1988-11-02
   soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,509 · $542/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,509 · $542/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$6,509
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,418
• − Management: −$3,418
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $11,360
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,726
• After-tax cash flow: $10,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Country Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600008
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $74,049
• Composite: 44.75/100
• National rank: #5960
• State rank: #460 of 755 in NY

Livability — North Bellport

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #842
• US rank: #16345

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Bellport, NY
• City population: 9,236
• Population (ZIP): 9,236

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.23%
• Current HPI: 421.2165
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+185.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Listed $199,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2001-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2001-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1997-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 1988-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,509 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.