3230 Silver Rdg · Piñon Hills, CA 92372

$460,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,095 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1964 2.70 ac lot $220/sqft · 10% below area Est $511k · 10% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully appointed single-family home on PAVED ROAD offers 2,095 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space on a remarkable 2.7-acre lot, creating an exceptional opportunity for a home buyer seeking room to grow, entertain, and enjoy true privacy. The heart of this residence is a well-equipped kitchen featuring a generous island perfect for meal prep, double oven, electric range and inviting eat-in area that encourages daily connection, and a walk-in pantry that delivers serious storage and organization potential. Natural flow between living areas creates an open, welcoming atmosphere while maintaining functional separation when you need it. The custom brick flooring, brick fireplace hearth and wood beamed ceilings, custom shutters make for a comforting setting. Enjoy the large enclosed patio with built in BBQ, cabinets and sink. Step outside to discover mature trees, fruit trees with nearly three acres of possibilities. Whether you envision weekend gatherings, a future workshop, or room for pets and recreation, this property gives you the canvas to create exactly what you need without compromise or constraint. The generous acreage also means you'll enjoy a level of privacy and separation rarely found in traditional neighborhoods. Don't miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• Generous island
• Built in bbq
• Walk in pantry

Tags

• WELL EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• GENEROUS ISLAND
• WALK IN PANTRY
• LARGE ENCLOSED PATIO
• BUILT IN BBQ
• MATURE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $460k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-551 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $363k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (40.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $275k (40.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in Piñon Hills — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Snowline Joint Unified (rural): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #722 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage (523 students, 53% FRL); Pinon Mesa Middle (788 students, 69% FRL); Serrano High (2,145 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($405k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,000 (40.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.13%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $510,756
• List price: $460,000
• Delta: -7.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8825 Beekley	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,161 (+3%)	4mo	$510,000	$236	76
2909 Silver Ridge Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	2,266 (+8%)	5mo	$629,000	$278	58
3385 State Hwy 138	0.27mi	3/2.0	2,367 (+13%)	8mo	$430,000	$182	55
2910 Silver Ridge Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,348 (+12%)	9mo	$500,000	$213	46
8316 Lona Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,825 (-13%)	8mo	$485,000	$266	45
9224 Beekley	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,897 (-10%)	6mo	$472,000	$249	43
3561 Percheron Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,371 (+13%)	15mo	$470,000	$198	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $215,207
• Equity at exit: $414,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $660,864
• Equity at exit: $893,679

Cash invested: $128,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92372

• Home prices YoY: 14.8%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,432/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $-551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,447

Max offer price $362,694

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-290	-5% $-421	+0% $-551	+5% $-681	+10% $-811
Rent	-10% $-768	-5% $-659	+0% $-551	+5% $-442	+10% $-334
Rate	-1.0pp $-319	-0.5pp $-434	base $-551	+0.5pp $-670	+1.0pp $-791

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,000
• Closing costs: $13,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4315 Snow Line Dr Phelan, CA	3.0	2.0	1784	$2,750	$1.54	0d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $460,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $470,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $470,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $470,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $470,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $470,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $470,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $470,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $470,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $470,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $470,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $470,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $470,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $470,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $470,000 1288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1288 chars)

    This beautifully appointed single-family home on PAVED ROAD offers 2,095 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space on a remarkable 2.7-acre lot, creating an exceptional opportunity for a home buyer seeking room to grow, entertain, and enjoy true privacy. The heart of this residence is a well-equipped kitchen featuring a generous island perfect for meal prep, double oven, electric range and inviting eat-in area that encourages daily connection, and a walk-in pantry that delivers serious storage and organization potential. Natural flow between living areas creates an open, welcoming atmosphere while maintaining functional separation when you need it. The custom brick flooring, brick fireplace hearth and wood beamed ceilings, custom shutters make for a comforting setting. Enjoy the large enclosed patio with built in BBQ, cabinets and sink. Step outside to discover mature trees, fruit trees with nearly three acres of possibilities. Whether you envision weekend gatherings, a future workshop, or room for pets and recreation, this property gives you the canvas to create exactly what you need without compromise or constraint. The generous acreage also means you'll enjoy a level of privacy and separation rarely found in traditional neighborhoods. Don't miss this opportunity!

16. 2026-03-11
    price $480,000 1288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1288 chars)

    This beautifully appointed single-family home on PAVED ROAD offers 2,095 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space on a remarkable 2.7-acre lot, creating an exceptional opportunity for a home buyer seeking room to grow, entertain, and enjoy true privacy. The heart of this residence is a well-equipped kitchen featuring a generous island perfect for meal prep, double oven, electric range and inviting eat-in area that encourages daily connection, and a walk-in pantry that delivers serious storage and organization potential. Natural flow between living areas creates an open, welcoming atmosphere while maintaining functional separation when you need it. The custom brick flooring, brick fireplace hearth and wood beamed ceilings, custom shutters make for a comforting setting. Enjoy the large enclosed patio with built in BBQ, cabinets and sink. Step outside to discover mature trees, fruit trees with nearly three acres of possibilities. Whether you envision weekend gatherings, a future workshop, or room for pets and recreation, this property gives you the canvas to create exactly what you need without compromise or constraint. The generous acreage also means you'll enjoy a level of privacy and separation rarely found in traditional neighborhoods. Don't miss this opportunity!

17. 2026-01-20
    listed $485,000 Active 1288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1288 chars)

    This beautifully appointed single-family home on PAVED ROAD offers 2,095 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space on a remarkable 2.7-acre lot, creating an exceptional opportunity for a home buyer seeking room to grow, entertain, and enjoy true privacy. The heart of this residence is a well-equipped kitchen featuring a generous island perfect for meal prep, double oven, electric range and inviting eat-in area that encourages daily connection, and a walk-in pantry that delivers serious storage and organization potential. Natural flow between living areas creates an open, welcoming atmosphere while maintaining functional separation when you need it. The custom brick flooring, brick fireplace hearth and wood beamed ceilings, custom shutters make for a comforting setting. Enjoy the large enclosed patio with built in BBQ, cabinets and sink. Step outside to discover mature trees, fruit trees with nearly three acres of possibilities. Whether you envision weekend gatherings, a future workshop, or room for pets and recreation, this property gives you the canvas to create exactly what you need without compromise or constraint. The generous acreage also means you'll enjoy a level of privacy and separation rarely found in traditional neighborhoods. Don't miss this opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,432 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,496 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,064/yr (+$172/mo · 144.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,767
• − Property taxes: −$1,432
• − Insurance: −$2,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,640
• − Management: −$2,640
• − Depreciation: −$13,382
• Taxable loss: −$15,161
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,639
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Snowline Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636970
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,625
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #9157
• State rank: #722 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Piñon Hills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Piñon Hills, CA
• City population: 4,854
• Population (ZIP): 4,854

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 14% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Korean 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.25%
• Current HPI: 383.0737
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $470,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $480,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $485,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,432 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.