451 Waverly St · Waverly, NY 14892

$125,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,852 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 250 Days on market

Built 1870 6,534 sqft lot Est $204k · 39% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover the charm and potential of this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring a traditional layout and stunning original woodwork throughout. A bonus room on the lower level offers the flexibility of a den, office, or possible fourth bedroom. This diamond in the rough is full of character and just needs a little TLC and elbow grease to shine. Whether you're an investor or looking for a home to make your own, this is a great opportunity to build equity and restore beauty in a classic home. Don't miss out!

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1870
• Listed 250 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($915/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.6% in Waverly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#569 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Waverly Central School District (town): math 41% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #480 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 139 units permitted in Tioga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Tioga County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 250 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 250 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.61%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Tioga	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,872 (+1%)	13mo	$180,000	$96	80
431 Loder St	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,874 (+1%)	15mo	$75,000	$40	78
536 Fulton St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,844 (-0%)	4mo	$135,000	$73	77
110 1/2 Providence St	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,634 (-12%)	2mo	$120,000	$73	65
2473 Pennsylvania Ave	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,791 (-3%)	16mo	$240,000	$134	60
20 Court St	0.41mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,688 (-9%)	3mo	$265,000	$157	56
35 Broad Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,680 (-9%)	6mo	$242,000	$144	55
214 William St	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,780 (-4%)	16mo	$195,000	$110	54
1 Lyman Ave	0.62mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,932 (+4%)	7mo	$280,000	$145	53
31 Pitney St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,740 (-6%)	6mo	$150,000	$86	51
359 Loder St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,750 (-6%)	13mo	$290,000	$166	51
32 Lyman Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	2,066 (+12%)	12mo	$175,000	$85	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $18,531
• Equity at exit: $54,652

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $61,118
• Equity at exit: $83,037

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14892

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,307 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,982/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,210

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-02
   status Active
3. 2026-01-02
   price $125,000
4. 2025-10-28
   price $130,000
5. 2025-09-19
   status Active
6. 2025-09-08
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2025-08-15
   price $135,000
8. 2025-07-22
   listed $149,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,982 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,982 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,982
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,254
• − Management: −$1,254
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,073
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$258
• After-tax cash flow: $1,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waverly Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630270
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $44,935
• Composite: 36.9/100
• National rank: #4544
• State rank: #480 of 590 in NY

Livability — Waverly

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #10246

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waverly, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,531

Population outlook (Tioga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,155 people
• By 2030: 42,801 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 37,960 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 33,071 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 24,144 · -46.5%
• By 2100: 16,545 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tioga

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.9) · D 38.6% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: -22.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.9 2020: R+20.6 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Current HPI: 236.7714
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-16.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — NMPA
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — NMPA
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $125,000 NMPA
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $130,000 NMPA
• 2025-09-19 Relisted — NMPA
• 2025-09-08 Contingent — NMPA
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $135,000 NMPA
• 2025-07-22 Listed $149,000 NMPA

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,982 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.