2851 S La Cadena Spc 58 · Colton, CA 92324

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2004 $153/sqft · 6% below area Est $183k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home located in a clean and family-friendly all-ages park. Built in 2004, this home offers comfort and convenience with an open layout, indoor washer and dryer area, and beautifully maintained plants surrounding the property that create a warm and inviting atmosphere. Conveniently located just minutes from major freeways, shopping, dining, and everyday essentials, making commuting and daily living easy. A great opportunity for comfortable family living in a peaceful community.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 2004

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Elevation measured in feet; Lot categorized as 0-1 unit per acre
• HOA & community: Suburban community; Located in Cadena Creek mobile home park

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered carport spaces; 2 garage spaces (4 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public/District water; Sewer: Other
• Home design: Single-story; Entry on main level; Mobile home on site (14 x 84); Living area per public records
• Construction: Mobile home construction; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (standard fixtures)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 3.5% in Colton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#817 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, schools F.
• Riverside Unified (urban): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #574 of 1,400 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,167/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 2195% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.54%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,249
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -1.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2851 S La Cadena Dr #130	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-8%)	7mo	$159,000	$147	80
3444 Center St #13	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,223 (+4%)	1mo	$202,033	$165	80
3444 Center St #11	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+2%)	13mo	$215,000	$179	74
2851 S La Cadena #114	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-12%)	9mo	$186,000	$179	73
2851 S La Cadena #100	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-2%)	20mo	$140,000	$122	67
2851 S La Cadena #123 Dr #123	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+14%)	20mo	$185,000	$138	60
2851 S La Cadena Dr #72	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+14%)	22mo	$185,000	$138	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $61,559
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $165,836
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92324

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $390/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$665
• Net cashflow: $1,451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,331

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,552	-5% $1,501	+0% $1,451	+5% $1,400	+10% $1,134
Rent	-10% $1,200	-5% $1,325	+0% $1,451	+5% $1,576	+10% $1,701
Rate	-1.0pp $1,541	-0.5pp $1,496	base $1,451	+0.5pp $1,404	+1.0pp $1,356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
716 N Orange St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$4,999	$4.63	0d	1	0.70mi
19173 Sequoia Grove St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1204	$3,250	$2.70	0d	1	0.97mi
7440 Fig Grove Ln Unit 7440 Riverside, CA	3.0	3.0	1257	$1,100	$0.88	45d	1	1.00mi
7512 Fig Grove Ln Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1410	$3,500	$2.48	0d	1	1.01mi
7281 Olive Grove St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1257	$3,075	$2.45	45d	1	1.02mi
1054 Orange St Unit 207 Riverside, CA	2.0	1.0	735	$1,750	$2.38	25d	1	1.12mi
1151 Clark St Riverside, CA	4.0	2.0	1248	$2,800	$2.24	45d	1	1.22mi
3812 Carrotwood St Riverside, CA	3.0	3.0	1381	$2,900	$2.10	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    listed $180,000 Active 538-char remark
17. 2018-04-24
    historical Hold Do Not Show
18. 2018-01-20
    status Active
19. 2018-01-12
    historical Hold Do Not Show
20. 2017-11-20
    listed $59,000 Active
21. 2017-11-17
    historical
22. 2017-11-06
    listed $54,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $390 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,368 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$978/yr (+$82/mo · 250.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$390
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,040
• − Management: −$3,040
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $15,314
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,675
• After-tax cash flow: $13,731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverside Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633150
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $62,038
• Composite: 40.8/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #574 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Colton

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #817
• US rank: #23005

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 57,365
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,365
• Household income: $71,078
• Rent vs Own: 45.3% rent · 54.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2195.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 74% Two or more races 24% White 11% Black 8% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 49% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.99%
• Current HPI: 451.2973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+227.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $180,000 CRMLS
• 2018-04-24 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2018-01-20 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2018-01-12 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2017-11-20 Listed $59,000 CRMLS
• 2017-11-17 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2017-11-06 Listed $54,999 CRMLS

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $390 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.