3526 Water Ridge Ct · Abilene, TX 79602

$248,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,209 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,663 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21237691 - Built by NHC - Sep 2026 completion! ~ Model 1209 B1 - Washington The Washington Plan from our Liberty Series is a thoughtfully designed single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,209 square feet of functional living space. As you step inside, you’ll find two secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom conveniently located at the front of the home. Continue into the bright and open living area, where the kitchen with a central island seamlessly overlooks the dining area and family room, creating a perfect space for everyday living and entertaining. The laundry room is thoughtfully situated off the kitchen for easy access. The primary bedroom,

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Eula ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #239 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 11 units permitted in Callahan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Callahan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $232,156 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.95%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-20,826
• Equity at exit: $37,125

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $47,142
• Equity at exit: $21,528

Cash invested: $69,717 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,322 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $248,990

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,248
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $248,990 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $248,990 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $248,990 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $248,990 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
6. 2026-04-13
   price $245,990
7. 2026-04-13
   listed $241,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,947
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,229
• − Management: −$2,229
• − Depreciation: −$7,243
• Taxable loss: −$2,769
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$665
• After-tax cash flow: $2,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, well-maintained exterior, and no visible repairs needed. It offers a great opportunity for an investor looking to maximize both resale and rental value with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Add smart home features — Modern technology can attract buyers and renters, increasing both value types.
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Improved energy efficiency can lower utility costs and appeal to eco-conscious buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modern technology can attract buyers and renters, increasing both value types. ↑
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Improved energy efficiency can lower utility costs and appeal to eco-conscious buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eula ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818690
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,825
• Composite: 39.98/100
• National rank: #3835
• State rank: #239 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Callahan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,664 people
• By 2030: 13,578 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 13,283 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 13,008 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 12,354 · -9.6%
• By 2100: 11,326 · -17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Callahan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.6) · D 10.9% · R 88.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -61.7pp · 2024: -77.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.6 2020: R+77.3 2016: R+77.2 2012: R+69.8 2008: R+61.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $245,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $241,990 NTREIS