574 Morningside Cir · West Jefferson, NC 28694

$74,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 504 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1982

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very affordable year round home or summer hideaway. Great income producer as well. Home has been upgraded to include new flooring, new kitchen/bath cabinetry, windows, repainted, roof redone. Home includes two wooded sloping lots and is priced to sell PRONTO!!. Community water system, private septic, and private road, part paved, part gravel...

Key facts

• Private roads
• Pond
• Trails

Tags

• PRIVATE ROADS
• CREEKS
• TRAILS
• POND
• VIEW OF GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN
• NEW FULL SIZE TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($768 rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 0.9% in West Jefferson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#276 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ashe County Schools (rural): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #53 of 178 in NC (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westwood Elementary (math 49% / reading 49%, grade D, #459 of 1,410 statewide, top 33%, 480 students, 67% FRL); Ashe County Middle (math 58% / reading 57%, grade B, #64 of 475 statewide, top 14%, 440 students, 64% FRL); Ashe County High (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C, #248 of 535 statewide, top 48%, 792 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 46% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 163 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Ashe County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $512 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashe County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $74k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $71,780 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.54%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-5,886
• Equity at exit: $11,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $2,768
• Equity at exit: $6,398

Cash invested: $20,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28694

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$92 /mo · $1,110/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$161
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $647

Max offer price $74,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $147	-5% $121	+0% $96	+5% $70	+10% $45
Rent	-10% $35	-5% $65	+0% $96	+5% $126	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $133	-0.5pp $114	base $96	+0.5pp $76	+1.0pp $57

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,500
• Closing costs: $2,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $74,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $74,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $74,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $74,000 Active
17. 2012-09-20
    soldstatus $20,000 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Very affordable year round home or summer hideaway. Great income producer as well. Home has been upgraded to include new flooring, new kitchen/bath cabinetry, windows, repainted, roof redone. Home includes two wooded sloping lots and is priced to sell PRONTO!!. Community water system, private septic, and private road, part paved, part gravel...

18. 2012-09-17
    soldstatus $20,000
19. 2012-07-10
    listed $20,000 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Very affordable year round home or summer hideaway. Great income producer as well. Home has been upgraded to include new flooring, new kitchen/bath cabinetry, windows, repainted, roof redone. Home includes two wooded sloping lots and is priced to sell PRONTO!!. Community water system, private septic, and private road, part paved, part gravel...

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,145
• − Property taxes: −$1,110
• − Insurance: −$370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$738
• − Management: −$738
• − Depreciation: −$2,153
• Taxable loss: −$32
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8
• After-tax cash flow: $1,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashe County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700210
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,597
• Composite: 44.82/100
• National rank: #2737
• State rank: #53 of 178 in NC

Livability — West Jefferson

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #276
• US rank: #11979

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,369

Population outlook (Ashe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,812 people
• By 2030: 24,852 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 22,518 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 20,113 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 15,295 · -40.7%
• By 2100: 11,065 · -57.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashe

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.5) · D 27.4% · R 71.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -23.3pp · 2024: -44.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.5 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+44.7 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.37%
• Current HPI: 296.4258
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+270.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $74,000 FSBO.com
• 2012-09-20 Sold (MLS) $20,000 Triad MLS
• 2012-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-10 Listed $20,000 Triad MLS

Property tax history

-6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $89 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.