1611 Mckinley Ave · San Antonio, TX 78210-4348

$204,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,414 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 203 Days on market

Built 1930 6,490 sqft lot $144/sqft · 17% below area Est $245k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming single-story 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring original hardwood floors, spacious bedrooms, and a bright, updated kitchen. The backyard boasts mature trees, a detached storage shed, and a private fenced area, perfect for entertaining. Located in a serene neighborhood close to schools and shopping.

Key facts

• Private fenced area
• Serene neighborhood
• 6,490 sq ft lot

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• BRIGHT UPDATED KITCHEN
• DETACHED STORAGE SHED
• PRIVATE FENCED AREA
• SERENE NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $204k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-294 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (25.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• San Antonio ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #805 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,130 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.17%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,950
• List price: $204,000
• Delta: -16.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1411 Mckinley	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,420 (+0%)	2mo	$229,900	$162	83
1434 Hicks Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,340 (-5%)	0mo	$150,000	$112	78
738 Avant	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,306 (-8%)	1mo	$224,999	$172	76
810 Avant Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,265 (-10%)	3mo	$245,000	$194	71
1933 Mckinley Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-4%)	1mo	$215,000	$159	68
534 Kayton	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+7%)	1mo	$89,000	$59	65
910 Halliday	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,409 (-0%)	1mo	$185,000	$131	62
430 Merry Ann	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,431 (+1%)	2mo	$255,000	$178	61
427 Vanderbilt	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,518 (+7%)	2mo	$189,999	$125	59
1218 Vanderbilt	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,619 (+14%)	0mo	$305,000	$188	52
1307 Kayton Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,287 (-9%)	1mo	$225,000	$175	49
422 Merry Ann	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+15%)	2mo	$252,000	$155	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,017
• Equity at exit: $91,727

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $47,858
• Equity at exit: $141,363

Cash invested: $57,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78210-4348

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,070
• Tax from tax record: −$448 /mo · $5,372/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,028

Max offer price $152,130

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-178	-5% $-236	+0% $-294	+5% $-351	+10% $-409
Rent	-10% $-425	-5% $-359	+0% $-294	+5% $-228	+10% $-163
Rate	-1.0pp $-191	-0.5pp $-242	base $-294	+0.5pp $-346	+1.0pp $-400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,000
• Closing costs: $6,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1627 Schley Ave San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1408	$1,650	$1.17	24d	1	0.06mi
1444 McKinley Ave San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$2,500	$1.55	24d	1	0.21mi
1050 Vanderbilt St San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1508	$1,850	$1.23	24d	1	0.24mi
1811 McKinley Ave San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1248	$975	$0.78	3d	1	0.24mi
1124 Vanderbilt St San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1095	$1,350	$1.23	44d	1	0.27mi
1007 Avant Ave San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$3,200	$1.96	24d	1	0.29mi
2219 S New Braunfels Ave San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$1,050	$1.10	24d	1	0.33mi
523 Bailey Ave San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	24d	1	0.40mi
636 Rigsby Ave San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1327	$1,595	$1.20	44d	1	0.42mi
838 Hammond Ave San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$1,300	$1.46	44d	1	0.44mi
414 Stanfield Ave San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,300	$1.04	44d	1	0.46mi
454 Bailey Ave San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1674	$1,495	$0.89	44d	1	0.46mi
510 Vanderbilt St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	1208	$1,150	$0.95	44d	1	0.47mi
508 Kayton Ave San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	1058	$1,200	$1.13	16d	1	0.49mi
534 Rigsby Ave San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,950	$1.36	24d	1	0.51mi
2107 Schley Ave San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1568	$2,200	$1.40	44d	1	0.60mi
1131 McKinley Ave San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	4d	1	0.63mi
1528 Steves Ave Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	940	$1,025	$1.09	44d	1	0.64mi
331 Avant Ave San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,825	$1.52	24d	1	0.65mi
534 Cosgrove St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,875	$1.31	44d	1	0.65mi
1510 Steves Ave San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,800	$1.35	24d	1	0.69mi
1039 McKinley Ave San Antonio, TX	3.0	3.0	1650	$2,300	$1.39	2d	1	0.72mi
1914 S Pine St San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,250	$1.22	44d	1	0.74mi
1303 Rigsby Ave Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,173	$1.23	3d	1	0.78mi
3602 Bremen St San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1092	$1,595	$1.46	24d	1	0.79mi
704 Fair Ave Unit 200 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.5	1600	$1,200	$0.75	24d	1	0.80mi
2307 McKinley Ave San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1059	$1,495	$1.41	44d	1	0.80mi
1303 Essex St #102 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1180	$1,400	$1.19	24d	1	0.83mi
142 Avant Ave #1 San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1314	$1,495	$1.14	18d	1	0.84mi
1518 S Walters St Unit 102 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1180	$1,400	$1.19	4d	1	0.85mi
3815 Bremen Ave San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,495	$0.94	24d	1	0.85mi
307 San Salvador Ave Unit 101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1783	$1,595	$0.89	4d	1	0.87mi
313 San Salvador Ave San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1240	$1,395	$1.12	44d	1	0.89mi
534 Chicago Blvd Unit NA San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,550	$1.24	18d	1	0.89mi
534 Chicago Blvd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,550	$1.24	20d	1	0.89mi
518 Topeka Blvd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,375	$1.21	24d	1	0.89mi
215 San Salvador Ave Unit 101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1783	$1,595	$0.89	4d	1	0.92mi
627 Essex St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1402	$1,850	$1.32	24d	1	0.93mi
343 Porter St #101 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,100	$1.31	4d	1	0.97mi
139 San Salvador Ave Unit 103 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	1245	$1,490	$1.20	15d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-05-05
   historical Active Option 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Charming single-story 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring original hardwood floors, spacious bedrooms, and a bright, updated kitchen. The backyard boasts mature trees, a detached storage shed, and a private fenced area, perfect for entertaining. Located in a serene neighborhood close to schools and shopping.

2. 2026-04-10
   price $204,000 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Charming single-story 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring original hardwood floors, spacious bedrooms, and a bright, updated kitchen. The backyard boasts mature trees, a detached storage shed, and a private fenced area, perfect for entertaining. Located in a serene neighborhood close to schools and shopping.

3. 2026-03-03
   status Back on Market 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Charming single-story 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring original hardwood floors, spacious bedrooms, and a bright, updated kitchen. The backyard boasts mature trees, a detached storage shed, and a private fenced area, perfect for entertaining. Located in a serene neighborhood close to schools and shopping.

4. 2026-02-28
   historical 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Charming single-story 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring original hardwood floors, spacious bedrooms, and a bright, updated kitchen. The backyard boasts mature trees, a detached storage shed, and a private fenced area, perfect for entertaining. Located in a serene neighborhood close to schools and shopping.

5. 2026-02-20
   price $209,000 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Charming single-story 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring original hardwood floors, spacious bedrooms, and a bright, updated kitchen. The backyard boasts mature trees, a detached storage shed, and a private fenced area, perfect for entertaining. Located in a serene neighborhood close to schools and shopping.

6. 2025-12-18
   price $212,500 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Charming single-story 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring original hardwood floors, spacious bedrooms, and a bright, updated kitchen. The backyard boasts mature trees, a detached storage shed, and a private fenced area, perfect for entertaining. Located in a serene neighborhood close to schools and shopping.

7. 2025-10-30
   listed $218,500 New 308-char remark

   Show marketing remark (308 chars)

   Charming single-story 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring original hardwood floors, spacious bedrooms, and a bright, updated kitchen. The backyard boasts mature trees, a detached storage shed, and a private fenced area, perfect for entertaining. Located in a serene neighborhood close to schools and shopping.

8. 2025-09-29
   historical
9. 2025-09-24
   price $221,900
10. 2025-07-30
    price $229,900
11. 2025-06-21
    price $234,900
12. 2025-04-18
    listed $239,900 New
13. 2025-03-28
    historical
14. 2025-02-13
    price $245,000
15. 2024-12-31
    listed $249,999 New
16. 2018-09-12
    soldstatus
17. 2018-07-20
    soldstatus Sold
18. 2018-06-29
    status Pending
19. 2018-06-18
    historical Active Option
20. 2018-06-14
    listed $150,000 New
21. 2014-09-23
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2014-08-26
    status Pending
23. 2014-08-21
    listed Active Option
24. 2013-12-01
    historical
25. 2012-12-03
    listed $82,000 Active
26. 2002-03-18
    soldstatus
27. 2000-05-11
    soldstatus
28. 1992-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,372 · $448/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,372 · $448/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,427
• − Property taxes: −$5,372
• − Insurance: −$1,020
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$5,935
• Taxable loss: −$7,054
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,693
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Antonio ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838730
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $30,952
• Composite: 13.57/100
• National rank: #9512
• State rank: #805 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+148.8% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $204,000 LERA
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $209,000 LERA
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $212,500 LERA
• 2025-10-30 Listed $218,500 LERA
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $221,900 LERA
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $229,900 LERA
• 2025-06-21 Price Changed $234,900 LERA
• 2025-04-18 Listed $239,900 LERA
• 2025-03-28 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $245,000 LERA
• 2024-12-31 Listed $249,999 LERA
• 2018-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-20 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2018-06-29 Pending — LERA
• 2018-06-18 Contingent — LERA
• 2018-06-14 Listed $150,000 LERA
• 2014-09-23 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2014-08-26 Pending — LERA
• 2014-08-21 Listed — LERA
• 2013-12-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2012-12-03 Listed $82,000 LERA
• 2002-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,372 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.