5148 County Road 4 · Fillmore, NY 14735

$76,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1963 4.20 ac lot $53/sqft · 74% below area ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom ranch-style home is set on 4 beautiful acres, offering an open yard space, two driveways, and some woods. Ideal for those seeking country living with room to roam, this home features a full basement, perfect for storage, a workshop, or future finished space. Enjoy one-floor living with a comfortable layout with a one car garage attached. With room to garden, further build improvements, or simply enjoying the quiet surroundings, this property offers the space and setting to make it your own. The property is owned by Community Bank and is being sold AS IS and will require a CASH Deal only. Nearby locations include multiple state forests, the Genesee River, Letchworth State Park, Rushford Lake, among others. We look forward to scheduling your private showing of this great opportunity.

Key facts

• Two driveways
• One car garage
• Genesee river

Tags

• OPEN YARD SPACE
• TWO DRIVEWAYS
• FULL BASEMENT
• ONE CAR GARAGE
• MULTIPLE STATE FORESTS
• GENESEE RIVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $76k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#868 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Fillmore Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #359 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($525 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.

Recommended offer $71,440 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.26%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,536
• List price: $76,000
• Delta: -74.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $36,620
• Equity at exit: $44,945

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.48×
• Total profit: $95,237
• Equity at exit: $79,166

Cash invested: $21,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14735

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,870/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $847

Max offer price $76,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,000
• Closing costs: $2,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 807-char remark

   Show marketing remark (807 chars)

   This 3-bedroom ranch-style home is set on 4 beautiful acres, offering an open yard space, two driveways, and some woods. Ideal for those seeking country living with room to roam, this home features a full basement, perfect for storage, a workshop, or future finished space. Enjoy one-floor living with a comfortable layout with a one car garage attached. With room to garden, further build improvements, or simply enjoying the quiet surroundings, this property offers the space and setting to make it your own. The property is owned by Community Bank and is being sold AS IS and will require a CASH Deal only. Nearby locations include multiple state forests, the Genesee River, Letchworth State Park, Rushford Lake, among others. We look forward to scheduling your private showing of this great opportunity.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $76,000 807-char remark

   Show marketing remark (807 chars)

   This 3-bedroom ranch-style home is set on 4 beautiful acres, offering an open yard space, two driveways, and some woods. Ideal for those seeking country living with room to roam, this home features a full basement, perfect for storage, a workshop, or future finished space. Enjoy one-floor living with a comfortable layout with a one car garage attached. With room to garden, further build improvements, or simply enjoying the quiet surroundings, this property offers the space and setting to make it your own. The property is owned by Community Bank and is being sold AS IS and will require a CASH Deal only. Nearby locations include multiple state forests, the Genesee River, Letchworth State Park, Rushford Lake, among others. We look forward to scheduling your private showing of this great opportunity.

3. 2026-03-15
   listed $95,000 Active 807-char remark

   Show marketing remark (807 chars)

   This 3-bedroom ranch-style home is set on 4 beautiful acres, offering an open yard space, two driveways, and some woods. Ideal for those seeking country living with room to roam, this home features a full basement, perfect for storage, a workshop, or future finished space. Enjoy one-floor living with a comfortable layout with a one car garage attached. With room to garden, further build improvements, or simply enjoying the quiet surroundings, this property offers the space and setting to make it your own. The property is owned by Community Bank and is being sold AS IS and will require a CASH Deal only. Nearby locations include multiple state forests, the Genesee River, Letchworth State Park, Rushford Lake, among others. We look forward to scheduling your private showing of this great opportunity.

4. 2025-10-16
   status Pending
5. 2025-10-15
   historical
6. 2025-08-07
   listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,870 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,870 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,257
• − Property taxes: −$2,870
• − Insurance: −$380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,142
• − Management: −$1,142
• − Depreciation: −$2,211
• Taxable income: $2,275
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$546
• After-tax cash flow: $2,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fillmore Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611070
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $41,114
• Composite: 44.01/100
• National rank: #2889
• State rank: #359 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fillmore

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #868
• US rank: #16718

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,609

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 5% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Current HPI: 289.3268
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-27.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $76,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-15 Listed $95,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-16 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-10-15 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $105,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,870 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.