1735 Rustling Creek Dr · Sienna, TX
Flood risk 4/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- X
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.2%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 111°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +12.4/15.0
- Cash flow +7.1/30.0
- Condition / age +4.8/5.0
- Schools +4.6/10.0
- Appreciation +4.2/10.0
- 1% rule +4.1/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- DSCR +1.3/10.0
$489,000
1735 Rustling Creek Dr · Sienna, TX 77459
4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,085 sqft · SingleFamily
public records
· 30 Days on market
Built 2022
8,441 sqft lot
2-car garage
$159/sqft
· 9% below area
Est $548k · 11% under
$109/mo HOA · 2% of rent
↓ 29% since listing
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Welcome to this stunning masterpiece nestled in the highly sought-after Sienna community! BRAND NEW kitchen countertop. BRAND NEW carpet in mater bedroom, stairs, game room and media room. Step inside to an open-floor concept bathed in natural light from expansive windows, showcasing a mix of rich wood and cozy carpet flooring under chic, modern lighting fixtures. The living room boasts soaring high ceilings and a cozy fireplace, flowing effortlessly into the dining areas and a gourmet kitchen. Culinary dreams come true here with a massive countertop, pristine white cabinetry, under-cabinet lighting, and stainless steel appliances.
Key facts
- Rich wood flooring
- Natural light
- Gourmet kitchen
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $489k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-691 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $367k (25.0% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $445k (9.0% below list).
- Recommended offer: $367k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
- Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1543 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($482k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 8 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$366,971
(25.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.91% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.60%
- Cash-on-cash
- -6.05%
- DSCR
- 0.73
- GRM
- 9.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $548,372
- List price
- $489,000
- Delta
- -10.83%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9010 Bayou Spring Ct | 0.30mi | 4/3.0 | 3,180 (+3%) | 2mo | $605,000 | $190 | 77 |
| 9714 Falling Leaf Dr | 0.60mi | 4/3.5 | 3,067 (-1%) | 1mo | $640,000 | $209 | 70 |
| 2006 Ironwood Pass Dr | 0.52mi | 4/3.5 | 2,922 (-5%) | 1mo | $600,878 | $206 | 66 |
| 10107 Deerpark Dr | 0.58mi | 4/3.5 | 3,273 (+6%) | 0mo | $500,000 | $153 | 62 |
| 10039 Cypress Path | 0.62mi | 4/3.5 | 3,348 (+8%) | 2mo | $585,000 | $175 | 55 |
| 10143 Deerpark Dr | 0.66mi | 4/3.5 | 2,874 (-7%) | 4mo | $475,000 | $165 | 55 |
| 9510 Spring Rose Dr | 0.61mi | 3/3.5 (-1) | 2,831 (-8%) | 0mo | $588,989 | $208 | 53 |
| 1518 Sunrise View Ln | 0.70mi | 5/3.5 (+1) | 3,234 (+5%) | 2mo | $590,000 | $182 | 52 |
| 9918 Hunters Run Dr | 0.66mi | 4/3.5 | 3,350 (+9%) | 4mo | $550,000 | $164 | 52 |
| 1207 Morning Rose Dr | 0.69mi | 4/3.5 | 3,361 (+9%) | 3mo | $600,000 | $179 | 50 |
| 10019 Cypress Path | 0.56mi | 4/3.5 | 3,518 (+14%) | 1mo | $625,000 | $178 | 49 |
| 10115 Cypress Path | 0.70mi | 4/3.5 | 3,457 (+12%) | 4mo | $520,900 | $151 | 44 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -20.4%
- Equity multiple
- 0.21×
- Total profit
- $-107,833
- Equity at exit
- $102,557
10-year hold
- IRR
- -19.0%
- Equity multiple
- -0.27×
- Total profit
- $-173,327
- Equity at exit
- $94,993
Cash invested: $136,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 202 active · 33 under contract
- Months of supply
- 26.9 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $585,950 ($187/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 94 d
- This list price
- 19% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -5.2% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 77459
- Home prices YoY
- -0.8%
- Rents YoY
- -0.1%
- Active inventory
- 1543
- Price-to-rent
- 9.2×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $4,450 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$2,564
- Tax from tax record
- −$1,329 /mo · $15,948/yr
- Insurance
- −$204
- HOA
- −$109
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$934
- Net cashflow
- $-691
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$5,324
Max offer price
$366,971
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-414 | -5% $-552 | +0% $-691 | +5% $-829 | +10% $-968 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-1,042 | -5% $-867 | +0% $-691 | +5% $-515 | +10% $-339 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-445 | -0.5pp $-566 | base $-691 | +0.5pp $-817 | +1.0pp $-946 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $122,250
- Closing costs
- $14,670
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 9 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3958 | $6,580 | $1.66 | 52d | 1 | 0.26mi |
| 1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2990 | $3,400 | $1.14 | 35d | 1 | 0.46mi |
| 8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2143 | $5,125 | $2.39 | 0d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2143 | $6,000 | $2.80 | 71d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2140 | $5,700 | $2.66 | 3d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2140 | $6,000 | $2.80 | 25d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 10614 Kingston Spring Dr Missouri City, TX | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2800 | $3,499 | $1.25 | 1d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 1414 Emma Lake Dr Missouri City, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2337 | $2,750 | $1.18 | 28d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 3036 | $3,595 | $1.18 | 59d | 1 | 1.31mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Sienna homeowners associationAnnual association fee
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached 2-car garage
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewer
- Home design
- Residential propertyEntry-level primary bedroomBuilt in 2022
- Construction
- Brick, stone, and wood siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
- Exterior features
- Subdivision lotCommunity pool
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherElectric ovenDisposalMicrowaveKitchen islandQuartz counters
- Bedrooms
- Primary bedroom on the first floor (19x13)Bedrooms on the second floor (16x14 media room; 28x18 game room; 15x12; 12x11)Additional first-floor bedroom (12x11)
- Flooring
- ConcreteEngineered hardwoodTile
- Bathrooms
- 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (gas)Zoned heatingCentral air conditioning (electric)Zoned cooling
- Interior features
- Double vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboQuartz countersSoaking tubSeparate showerCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsOne fireplace10 total rooms
- Laundry & utility
- Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $489,000 Active 30 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $489,000 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $489,000 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $489,000 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $489,000 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $489,000 Active 22 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $489,000 Active 20 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $489,000 Active 19 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $489,000 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $489,000 Active 15 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $489,000 Active 14 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $489,000 Active 13 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $489,000 Active 12 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $489,000 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $489,000 Active 9 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $489,000 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $489,000 Active 7 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $489,000 Active 6 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $489,000 Active 5 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $489,000 Active 4 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $489,000 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $489,000 Active 2 DOM
-
2026-07-10remarks 699-char remark
-
2026-07-10days on market $489,000 Active 1 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $489,000 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $489,000 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $489,000 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $489,000 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $489,000 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $489,000 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $489,000 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $489,000 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $489,000 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-04-18$489,000 Active 972-char remark
-
2026-04-15historical
-
2026-02-20price $499,900
-
2026-02-03$525,000 Active
-
2026-02-03historical
-
2025-12-28$545,000 Active
-
2025-12-28historical
-
2025-11-12$569,000 Active
-
2025-11-12historical
-
2025-11-12$5,690,000 Active
-
2025-11-12historical
-
2025-10-20$599,000 Active
-
2023-01-27soldstatus Sold
-
2022-11-15status Pending, Continue to Show
-
2022-09-06price $599,000
-
2022-08-30price $639,000
-
2022-08-29$689,967 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $15,948 · $1,329/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $15,948 · $1,329/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $53,397
- − Mortgage interest
- −$27,392
- − Property taxes
- −$15,948
- − Insurance
- −$2,445
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$4,272
- − Management
- −$4,272
- − HOA
- −$1,308
- − Depreciation
- −$14,225
- Taxable loss
- −$16,464
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$3,951
- After-tax cash flow
- $-4,338/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
95/100
None rehab
This nearly brand new home in Sienna's Heritage Park is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern finishes. Minor updates can further enhance its resale and rental value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's appearance and value. ↑
- Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
- Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers. ↑
- Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Updated lighting can enhance the home's ambiance and value. ↑
- Both Add outdoor lighting — Outdoor lighting can improve safety and curb appeal, attracting more potential buyers and renters. ↑
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Alyssa Ferguson El
Middle
Ronald Thornton Middle
D+
TX #462/1,662
Nat'l #4,433/14,009
High
Almeta Crawford H S
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Fort Bend ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4819650
- Math proficiency
- 44% ▼ -15.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 53% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $82,360
- Composite
- 44.61/100
- National rank
- #2779
- State rank
- #140 of 826 in TX
Livability — Sienna
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Sienna, TX
- County
- Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
- Metro
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 84,221
- Household income
- $129,151
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 20% of renters
Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,004,526 people
- By 2030
- 1,153,104 · +14.8%
- By 2040
- 1,453,718 · +44.7%
- By 2050
- 1,753,781 · +74.6%
- By 2075
- 2,455,772 · +144.5%
- By 2100
- 2,930,528 · +191.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 7%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%
Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -1.67%
- Current HPI
- 212.3573
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -0.15%
- Metro
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
||
| Technology | 5 | $198B |
|
||
| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
||
| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
|
||
Price history
-29.1% since first listed19 events — show timeline
- 2026-07-09 Listed $489,000 HARMLS
- 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
- 2026-04-18 Listed $489,000 HARMLS
- 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
- 2026-02-20 Price Changed $499,900 HARMLS
- 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
- 2026-02-03 Listed $525,000 HARMLS
- 2025-12-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
- 2025-12-28 Listed $545,000 HARMLS
- 2025-11-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
- 2025-11-12 Listed $5,690,000 HARMLS
- 2025-11-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
- 2025-11-12 Listed $569,000 HARMLS
- 2025-10-20 Listed $599,000 HARMLS
- 2023-01-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
- 2022-11-15 Pending — HARMLS
- 2022-09-06 Price Changed $599,000 HARMLS
- 2022-08-30 Price Changed $639,000 HARMLS
- 2022-08-29 Listed $689,967 HARMLS
Property tax history
+108.2%/yrLatest (2025): $15,948 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…