Is 1735 Rustling Creek Dr in Sienna, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 4.3% cap rate and $-754/mo modeled cash flow at a $459,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1735 Rustling Creek Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $4,155/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 44.15

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +14.2/15.0
Cash flow +6.6/30.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Schools +4.6/10.0
Appreciation +4.2/10.0
1% rule +4.1/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
DSCR +0.9/10.0

$459,000

1735 Rustling Creek Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,085 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2022 Excellent condition 8,441 sqft lot 2-car garage $149/sqft · 15% below area Est $539k · 15% under $109/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 33% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to this stunning masterpiece nestled in the highly sought-after Sienna community! BRAND NEW kitchen countertop. BRAND NEW carpet in mater bedroom, stairs, game room and media room. Step inside to an open-floor concept bathed in natural light from expansive windows, showcasing a mix of rich wood and cozy carpet flooring under chic, modern lighting fixtures. The living room boasts soaring high ceilings and a cozy fireplace, flowing effortlessly into the dining areas and a gourmet kitchen. Culinary dreams come true here with a massive countertop, pristine white cabinetry, under-cabinet lighting, and stainless steel appliances.

Key facts

Rich wood flooring
Natural light
Gourmet kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $459k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-754 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $326k (29.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $415k (9.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $326k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.8% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1773 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 82d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($445k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
9 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $325,801 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.91% ✗
Cap rate: 4.32%
Cash-on-cash: -7.04%
DSCR: 0.69
GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $538,601
List price: $459,000
Delta: -14.78%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1907 Creekwood Cv	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,935 (-5%)	2mo	$518,888	$177	82
9010 Bayou Spring Ct	0.30mi	4/3.0	3,180 (+3%)	4mo	$605,000	$190	76
9714 Falling Leaf Dr	0.60mi	4/3.5	3,067 (-1%)	3mo	$640,000	$209	69
9615 Hunters Run Dr	0.57mi	4/3.5	3,169 (+3%)	1mo	$509,000	$161	68
2006 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.52mi	4/3.5	2,922 (-5%)	3mo	$600,878	$206	65
1623 Delta Oaks Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	3,134 (+2%)	0mo	$689,900	$220	63
10107 Deerpark Dr	0.58mi	4/3.5	3,273 (+6%)	2mo	$500,000	$153	61
10039 Cypress Path	0.62mi	4/3.5	3,348 (+8%)	4mo	$585,000	$175	54
9510 Spring Rose Dr	0.61mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,831 (-8%)	2mo	$588,989	$208	51
10019 Cypress Path	0.56mi	4/3.5	3,518 (+14%)	3mo	$625,000	$178	48
1351 Creek Haven Dr	0.55mi	4/4.5	3,520 (+14%)	1mo	$730,000	$207	46
2111 Amelia Way Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,640 (-14%)	2mo	$400,000	$152	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -21.8%
Equity multiple: 0.16×
Total profit: $-107,826
Equity at exit: $96,266

10-year hold

IRR: -20.9%
Equity multiple: -0.37×
Total profit: $-176,640
Equity at exit: $89,165

Cash invested: $128,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 200 active · 46 under contract
Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $580,495 ($187/sqft)
Median days on market: 127 d
This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -6.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

Home prices YoY: -0.8%
Rents YoY: -0.1%
Active inventory: 1773
Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $4,155 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
Tax from tax record: −$1,329 /mo · $15,948/yr
Insurance: −$191
HOA: −$109
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$873
Net cashflow: $-754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,109

Max offer price $325,801

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-494	-5% $-624	+0% $-754	+5% $-884	+10% $-1,014
Rent	-10% $-1,082	-5% $-918	+0% $-754	+5% $-590	+10% $-426
Rate	-1.0pp $-523	-0.5pp $-637	base $-754	+0.5pp $-873	+1.0pp $-994

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $114,750
Closing costs: $13,770
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1539 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2812	$1,495	$0.53	24d	1	0.22mi
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	98d	1	0.26mi
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2990	$3,400	$1.14	82d	1	0.46mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	117d	1	0.51mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	71d	1	0.65mi
10614 Kingston Spring Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2800	$3,499	$1.25	47d	1	0.90mi
1414 Emma Lake Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2337	$2,750	$1.18	74d	1	0.91mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	106d	1	1.31mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Sienna associationAnnual association fee of $1,307

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2022Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Brick, stone, and wood siding construction
Exterior features: Subdivision lotCommunity pool

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenMicrowaveDisposalKitchen islandQuartz counters
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (19x13)Bedroom on the first floor (12x11)Bedroom on the second floor (12x11)Bedroom on the second floor (15x12)
Flooring: ConcreteEngineered hardwoodTile
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas) with zoned controlsCentral electric cooling with zoned controlsProgrammable thermostat
Interior features: Double vanityEn suite bathroomKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboMain level primaryQuartz countersSoaking tubSeparate showerWalk-in closet(s)Ceiling fan(s)Programmable thermostatLow emissivity windowsHas fireplace
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $459,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $459,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $459,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $459,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $459,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $459,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $459,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $459,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $459,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $459,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $459,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $459,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $459,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $459,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $459,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $459,000 Active 17 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $459,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $459,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $459,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $459,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $459,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $459,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $459,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $459,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $459,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $459,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $459,000 Active 3 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $459,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-08-18

pricedays on marketlisting id $459,000 Active 1 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $489,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $489,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $489,000 Active 38 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $489,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $489,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $489,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $489,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $489,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $489,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $489,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $489,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $489,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $489,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $489,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $489,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $489,000 Active 22 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $489,000 Active 20 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $489,000 Active 19 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $489,000 Active 17 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $489,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $489,000 Active 14 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $15,948 · $1,329/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $15,948 · $1,329/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $49,857
− Mortgage interest: −$25,711
− Property taxes: −$15,948
− Insurance: −$2,295
− Repairs & maintenance: −$3,989
− Management: −$3,989
− HOA: −$1,308
− Depreciation: −$13,353
Taxable loss: −$16,735

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,016
After-tax cash flow: $-5,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This nearly brand new home in Sienna's Heritage Park is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern finishes. Minor updates can further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's appearance and value. ↑
Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers. ↑
Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Updated lighting can enhance the home's ambiance and value. ↑
Both Add outdoor lighting — Outdoor lighting can improve safety and curb appeal, attracting more potential buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

District: Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID: 4819650
Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $82,360
Composite: 44.61/100
National rank: #2779
State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place: Sienna, TX
County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 84,221
Household income: $129,151
Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
Current HPI: 212.3573
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-33.5% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

2026-08-18 Listed $459,000 HARMLS
2026-08-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-07-09 Listed $489,000 HARMLS
2026-06-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-04-18 Listed $489,000 HARMLS
2026-04-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-02-20 Price Changed $499,900 HARMLS
2026-02-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-02-03 Listed $525,000 HARMLS
2025-12-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-12-28 Listed $545,000 HARMLS
2025-11-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-11-12 Listed $5,690,000 HARMLS
2025-11-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-11-12 Listed $569,000 HARMLS
2025-10-20 Listed $599,000 HARMLS
2023-01-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
2022-11-15 Pending — HARMLS
2022-09-06 Price Changed $599,000 HARMLS
2022-08-30 Price Changed $639,000 HARMLS
2022-08-29 Listed $689,967 HARMLS

Property tax history

+108.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,948 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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