1735 Rustling Creek Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$489,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,085 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition $159/sqft · 9% below area Est $548k · 11% under $105/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 29% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to Newmark Homes’ Artisan Series in Sienna’s newest section of Heritage Park—the perfect holiday gift! This northwest-facing home features 4 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, a cozy fireplace, and bay windows in both the primary suite and breakfast room. The popular Linz Plan (Elevation 4) showcases a modern exterior, covered patio, and thoughtfully curated finishes throughout. The open-concept kitchen is ideal for entertaining, offering stainless steel appliances, 42" cabinetry, and quartz countertops with generous prep and storage space. Barely lived in and nearly brand new. Additional highlights include energy-efficient construction, a tankless water heater, and a fully sodded and irrigated yard. Zoned to top-rated Fort Bend ISD and just minutes from Sienna’s exceptional amenities—resort-style pools, water-parks, fitness centers, and more—this home delivers comfort, style, and an unbeatable community lifestyle.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Covered patio
• Bay windows

Tags

• COZY FIREPLACE
• BAY WINDOWS
• COVERED PATIO
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT CONSTRUCTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $489k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($374/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $489k).
• Recommended offer: $474k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1228 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,359/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($474k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $474,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $548,159
• List price: $489,000
• Delta: -10.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9010 Bayou Spring Ct	0.30mi	4/3.0	3,180 (+3%)	0mo	$605,000	$190	79
1435 Columbia Grove Dr	0.44mi	4/3.5	3,076 (-0%)	3mo	$660,000	$215	76
1506 Country Air Ln	0.14mi	4/3.5	2,808 (-9%)	4mo	$425,000	$151	76
1939 Creekwood Cv	0.23mi	4/4.0	3,344 (+8%)	2mo	$594,990	$178	71
9710 Falling Leaf Dr	0.59mi	4/3.5	3,297 (+7%)	2mo	$595,000	$180	59
10039 Cypress Path	0.62mi	4/3.5	3,348 (+8%)	0mo	$585,000	$175	57
10143 Deerpark Dr	0.66mi	4/3.5	2,874 (-7%)	2mo	$475,000	$165	56
9019 Serenity Frst	0.39mi	4/4.5	3,474 (+13%)	3mo	$824,900	$237	55
1518 Sunrise View Ln	0.70mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,234 (+5%)	1mo	$590,000	$182	54
9918 Hunters Run Dr	0.66mi	4/3.5	3,350 (+9%)	2mo	$550,000	$164	53
1207 Morning Rose Dr	0.69mi	4/3.5	3,361 (+9%)	2mo	$600,000	$179	52
10115 Cypress Path	0.70mi	4/3.5	3,457 (+12%)	2mo	$520,900	$151	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-64,503
• Equity at exit: $102,557

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-86,632
• Equity at exit: $94,993

Cash invested: $136,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1228
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,359 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,564
• Tax from tax record: −$1,329 /mo · $15,948/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,125
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,319

Max offer price $489,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $308	-5% $170	+0% $31	+5% $-107	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-392	-5% $-180	+0% $31	+5% $243	+10% $455
Rate	-1.0pp $277	-0.5pp $156	base $31	+0.5pp $-96	+1.0pp $-224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,250
• Closing costs: $14,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	3d	1	0.26mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	23d	1	0.51mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	0.65mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	11d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $105 · $1,260/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgymsecurity

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $489,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $489,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $489,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $489,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $489,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $489,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $489,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $489,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $489,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-04-18
    listed $489,000 Active 972-char remark

    Show marketing remark (972 chars)

    Welcome home to Newmark Homes’ Artisan Series in Sienna’s newest section of Heritage Park—the perfect holiday gift! This northwest-facing home features 4 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, a cozy fireplace, and bay windows in both the primary suite and breakfast room. The popular Linz Plan (Elevation 4) showcases a modern exterior, covered patio, and thoughtfully curated finishes throughout. The open-concept kitchen is ideal for entertaining, offering stainless steel appliances, 42" cabinetry, and quartz countertops with generous prep and storage space. Barely lived in and nearly brand new. Additional highlights include energy-efficient construction, a tankless water heater, and a fully sodded and irrigated yard. Zoned to top-rated Fort Bend ISD and just minutes from Sienna’s exceptional amenities—resort-style pools, water-parks, fitness centers, and more—this home delivers comfort, style, and an unbeatable community lifestyle.

11. 2026-04-15
    historical
12. 2026-02-20
    price $499,900
13. 2026-02-03
    listed $525,000 Active
14. 2026-02-03
    historical
15. 2025-12-28
    listed $545,000 Active
16. 2025-12-28
    historical
17. 2025-11-12
    listed $569,000 Active
18. 2025-11-12
    historical
19. 2025-11-12
    listed $5,690,000 Active
20. 2025-11-12
    historical
21. 2025-10-20
    listed $599,000 Active
22. 2023-01-27
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2022-11-15
    status Pending, Continue to Show
24. 2022-09-06
    price $599,000
25. 2022-08-30
    price $639,000
26. 2022-08-29
    listed $689,967 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $15,948 · $1,329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,948 · $1,329/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,392
• − Property taxes: −$15,948
• − Insurance: −$2,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,144
• − Management: −$5,144
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$14,225
• Taxable loss: −$7,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,741
• After-tax cash flow: $2,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This nearly brand new home in Sienna's Heritage Park is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern finishes. Minor updates can further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's appearance and value.
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers.
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Updated lighting can enhance the home's ambiance and value.
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Outdoor lighting can improve safety and curb appeal, attracting more potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Updated lighting can enhance the home's ambiance and value. ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Outdoor lighting can improve safety and curb appeal, attracting more potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-29.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $489,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $499,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $525,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-28 Listed $545,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $5,690,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $569,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $599,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-11-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-09-06 Price Changed $599,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-30 Price Changed $639,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-29 Listed $689,967 HARMLS

Property tax history

+108.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,948 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.