16283 Alexander Run · Jupiter Farms, FL 33478

$995,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1976 1.09 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

TWO HOMES for the Price of One! Well built & impeccably maintained Concrete Block home with Guest house located on over an acre in Jupiter Farms. The Main home offers an updated Kitchen with new appliances, 4 large bedrooms, 2 1/2 Bathrooms, Office, Garage, Impact glass Windows on upper floor and bay window, & screened patio. The detached CBS Guest house offers vaulted ceilings, Large Living Room with Full Kitchen, separate bedroom, full bathroom, laundry room, Gym, 1 Car Garage, private screened patio, ADA Stair/Chair Lift. This high & dry lot located on a paved road also has a regulation size Tennis Court, a detached 2 car garage workshop behind the tennis court & s

Key facts

• 1.09 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed with no restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces; Two covered parking spaces; Concrete driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Resale property; Faces east; Two-story
• Construction: Block/Concrete/CBS construction; Shingle roof; Built with CBS/block materials
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Open porch; Back yard fencing; Chain-link fence; Room for a pool; Paved public road access; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Water purifier (owned); Water softener (owned)
• Bedrooms: Five main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Split bedroom layout; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $995k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $687k (31.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $560k (43.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $560k (43.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#617 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jupiter Farms Elementary School (math 83% / reading 82%, grade A+, #70 of 2,144 statewide, top 4%, 624 students, 21% FRL); Watson B. Duncan Middle School (math 54% / reading 59%, grade B, #171 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 1,157 students, 41% FRL); Jupiter High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 3,087 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 52% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($965k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $559,919 (43.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.51%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-272,636
• Equity at exit: $148,358

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-381,831
• Equity at exit: $86,029

Cash invested: $278,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33478

• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,599 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax from tax record: −$535 /mo · $6,414/yr
• Insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,176
• Net cashflow: $-1,744

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,806

Max offer price $686,983

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $248,750
• Closing costs: $29,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16655 113th Trl N Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.0	1907	$4,700	$2.46	15d	1	0.75mi
12523 169th Ct N Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.0	1908	$4,500	$2.36	24d	1	0.82mi
12863 159th Ct N Jupiter, FL	5.0	3.0	2296	$6,000	$2.61	24d	1	0.83mi
17119 Alexander Run Jupiter, FL	3.0	2.0	2757	$4,500	$1.63	24d	1	0.84mi
11217 169th Ct N Jupiter, FL	4.0	3.0	2142	$5,500	$2.57	16d	1	1.04mi
11405 175th Rd N Jupiter, FL	4.0	3.0	2362	$10,000	$4.23	18d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $995,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $995,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $995,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $995,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $995,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $995,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $995,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $995,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $995,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $995,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $995,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $995,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $995,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    listed $995,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,414 · $535/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,258 · $688/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,844/yr (+$154/mo · 28.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $67,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,735
• − Property taxes: −$6,414
• − Insurance: −$4,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,375
• − Management: −$5,375
• − Depreciation: −$28,945
• Taxable loss: −$39,630
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,511
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jupiter Farms

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #617
• US rank: #11894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jupiter Farms, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,205

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -306.11%
• Current HPI: 427.5178
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $995,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,414 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.