1054 Caroline Ln · Shadybrook, TX 75757

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 2009 0.32 ac lot $178/sqft · 10% below area Est $223k · 10% under $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked into a peaceful community just moments from the shores of Lake Palestine, this charming 3 bedroom home offers comfort, convenience, and room to breathe on a generous . 32 acre lot. With 1,125 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this home is ideal for those seeking a cozy retreat, weekend getaway, or full time residence near the water. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout that maximizes every square foot with inviting living areas that feel warm and welcoming from the moment you step in. The three bedrooms provide space for family, guests, or a home office setup while the bathroom is centrally located for convenience. Step outside and enjoy the expansive yard that’s perfect for entertaining, gardening, or simply relaxing under the East Texas sky. The fire pit and storage building provide the perfect space for barbecuing and spending time with your loved ones. Located in the established Shadybrook neighborhood with plenty of amenities such as two pools, a club hours, a playground, boat ramp, swimming pier and more. Only a short drive to Lake Palestine, this home offers the perfect blend of tranquility and recreation. If you’ve been searching for an affordable home with space to spread out and close proximity to lake lifestyle, this home checks all the boxes.

Key facts

• Generous acre lot
• Expansive yard
• Storage building

Tags

• GENEROUS ACRE LOT
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• EXPANSIVE YARD
• FIRE PIT
• STORAGE BUILDING
• TWO POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-148 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.0% in Shadybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,042 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bullard El (math 61% / reading 61%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 434 students, 36% FRL); Bullard Middle (math 69% / reading 66%, grade A-, #77 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 459 students, 33% FRL); Bullard H S (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 848 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.17%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,997
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -10.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-41,749
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-48,214
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,647/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $173,760

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-35	-5% $-91	+0% $-148	+5% $-205	+10% $-261
Rent	-10% $-278	-5% $-213	+0% $-148	+5% $-83	+10% $-18
Rate	-1.0pp $-47	-0.5pp $-97	base $-148	+0.5pp $-200	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Pecan Dr Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,650	$1.21	45d	1	1.00mi
394 Red Bud Cir Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	45d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $199,900 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,900 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 60 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $205,000 1319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1319 chars)

    Tucked into a peaceful community just moments from the shores of Lake Palestine, this charming 3 bedroom home offers comfort, convenience, and room to breathe on a generous . 32 acre lot. With 1,125 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this home is ideal for those seeking a cozy retreat, weekend getaway, or full time residence near the water. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout that maximizes every square foot with inviting living areas that feel warm and welcoming from the moment you step in. The three bedrooms provide space for family, guests, or a home office setup while the bathroom is centrally located for convenience. Step outside and enjoy the expansive yard that’s perfect for entertaining, gardening, or simply relaxing under the East Texas sky. The fire pit and storage building provide the perfect space for barbecuing and spending time with your loved ones. Located in the established Shadybrook neighborhood with plenty of amenities such as two pools, a club hours, a playground, boat ramp, swimming pier and more. Only a short drive to Lake Palestine, this home offers the perfect blend of tranquility and recreation. If you’ve been searching for an affordable home with space to spread out and close proximity to lake lifestyle, this home checks all the boxes.

19. 2026-03-31
    listed $210,000 Active 1319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1319 chars)

    Tucked into a peaceful community just moments from the shores of Lake Palestine, this charming 3 bedroom home offers comfort, convenience, and room to breathe on a generous . 32 acre lot. With 1,125 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this home is ideal for those seeking a cozy retreat, weekend getaway, or full time residence near the water. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout that maximizes every square foot with inviting living areas that feel warm and welcoming from the moment you step in. The three bedrooms provide space for family, guests, or a home office setup while the bathroom is centrally located for convenience. Step outside and enjoy the expansive yard that’s perfect for entertaining, gardening, or simply relaxing under the East Texas sky. The fire pit and storage building provide the perfect space for barbecuing and spending time with your loved ones. Located in the established Shadybrook neighborhood with plenty of amenities such as two pools, a club hours, a playground, boat ramp, swimming pier and more. Only a short drive to Lake Palestine, this home offers the perfect blend of tranquility and recreation. If you’ve been searching for an affordable home with space to spread out and close proximity to lake lifestyle, this home checks all the boxes.

20. 2024-11-25
    soldstatus Closed 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Great home within a gated Lake Palestine subdivision that is located in Bullard ISD. This home features recent updates throughout & sits on a large lot. There is a private boat ramp to access Lake Palestine for residents only, a community pool, playground, clubhouse and on-site HOA management office. Schedule your viewing today

21. 2024-11-01
    historical 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Great home within a gated Lake Palestine subdivision that is located in Bullard ISD. This home features recent updates throughout & sits on a large lot. There is a private boat ramp to access Lake Palestine for residents only, a community pool, playground, clubhouse and on-site HOA management office. Schedule your viewing today

22. 2024-10-14
    status Active 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Great home within a gated Lake Palestine subdivision that is located in Bullard ISD. This home features recent updates throughout & sits on a large lot. There is a private boat ramp to access Lake Palestine for residents only, a community pool, playground, clubhouse and on-site HOA management office. Schedule your viewing today

23. 2024-09-16
    listed $200,000 Active 335-char remark

    Show marketing remark (335 chars)

    Great home within a gated Lake Palestine subdivision that is located in Bullard ISD. This home features recent updates throughout & sits on a large lot. There is a private boat ramp to access Lake Palestine for residents only, a community pool, playground, clubhouse and on-site HOA management office. Schedule your viewing today

24. 2022-02-22
    soldstatus
25. 2022-02-18
    soldstatus
26. 2022-01-28
    listed $155,000
27. 2017-05-03
    soldstatus
28. 2017-04-27
    soldstatus
29. 2017-03-26
    listed $98,750
30. 2014-01-30
    soldstatus
31. 2013-12-16
    listed $89,500
32. 2007-07-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,647 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$12/yr (+$1/mo · 0.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,647
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,253
• After-tax cash flow: $-523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shadybrook

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1042
• US rank: #18541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shadybrook, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+129.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $205,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-31 Listed $210,000 GTAR
• 2024-11-25 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2024-11-01 Delisted — GTAR
• 2024-10-14 Relisted — GTAR
• 2024-09-16 Listed $200,000 GTAR
• 2022-02-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-18 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2022-01-28 Listed $155,000 GTAR
• 2017-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-04-27 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2017-03-26 Listed $98,750 GTAR
• 2014-01-30 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2013-12-16 Listed $89,500 GTAR
• 2007-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,647 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.