35 Mercury Ave · East Patchogue, NY 11772

$499,999

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1975 0.29 ac lot $288/sqft · 28% below area Est $692k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 35 Mercury Ave, East Patchogue — ideally positioned on a wide corner lot, this charming cabin-style Colonial offers an exceptional combination of space, comfort, and opportunity. With a versatile layout and generous footprint, this residence presents the perfect blank canvas for a wide range of buyers looking to personalize a home while enjoying immediate move-in readiness. Featuring 5 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, this home provides one of the largest living opportunities available in its price range. The interior includes a full eat-in kitchen, a spacious living room, and an oversized den, offering multiple gathering spaces ideal for everyday living, entertaining, or accomm

Key facts

• Oversized den
• Rear patio
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FULL EAT-IN KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED DEN
• FULLY PAID-OFF SOLAR PANELS
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• REAR PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; Space for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Water connected; Cesspool sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Two stories
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Partial attic
• Exterior features: Level lot; Fenced yard; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: Two levels (total rooms: 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Wall/window air conditioner units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Patio

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-405 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $428k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $409k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $409k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in East Patchogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#769 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• South Country Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #460 of 755 in NY (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brookhaven Elementary School (506 students, 41% FRL); Bellport Middle School (math 64% / reading 54%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 838 students, 56% FRL); Bellport Senior High School (math 86% / reading 64%, grade A-, #630 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 1,392 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 47% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the South Country Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,087/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($105k/yr) (locally 1595% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($485k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $500k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $408,696 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $691,589
• List price: $499,999
• Delta: -27.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
60 Mercury Ave	0.10mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,668 (-4%)	4mo	$665,000	$399	79
14 Handy Ln	0.30mi	5/2.0	1,756 (+1%)	9mo	$630,000	$359	75
53 Drake Ave	0.38mi	5/2.0	1,800 (+4%)	5mo	$400,000	$222	70
9 Meadow Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,722 (-1%)	2mo	$645,000	$375	69
10 Marie Cres	0.27mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,848 (+6%)	4mo	$650,000	$352	69
3 Curtis Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,692 (-2%)	9mo	$618,000	$365	62
3 Cobb Ln	0.56mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,734 (-0%)	8mo	$690,000	$398	60
56 Camille Ln	0.51mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,824 (+5%)	5mo	$675,000	$370	59
38 Camille Ln	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,670 (-4%)	2mo	$625,000	$374	58
8 Thrasher Ave	0.39mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-8%)	8mo	$525,000	$328	55
8 Nantucket Dr	0.63mi	5/2.0	1,650 (-5%)	7mo	$600,000	$364	55
19 Carson Ln	0.71mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,574 (-9%)	6mo	$635,000	$403	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-97,978
• Equity at exit: $74,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-80,672
• Equity at exit: $43,231

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11772

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$804 /mo · $9,644/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$858
• Net cashflow: $-405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,600

Max offer price $428,394

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-264	+0% $-405	+5% $-547	+10% $-688
Rent	-10% $-728	-5% $-567	+0% $-405	+5% $-244	+10% $-82
Rate	-1.0pp $-154	-0.5pp $-278	base $-405	+0.5pp $-535	+1.0pp $-667

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
718 Provost Ave Bellport, NY	4.0	1.0	1100	$4,000	$3.64	45d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $499,999 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $499,999 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $499,999 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $499,999 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-04-24
   listed $549,999 Active 1564-char remark
6. 1998-08-17
   soldstatus $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,644 · $804/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,644 · $804/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$9,644
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,923
• − Management: −$3,923
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$13,500
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,240
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Country Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600008
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $74,049
• Composite: 44.75/100
• National rank: #5960
• State rank: #460 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Patchogue

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #14732

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Patchogue, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 45,006
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 45,023
• Household income: $105,245
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1595.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -578.02%
• Current HPI: 375.1174
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+270.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $499,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $549,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,644 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.