518 N Live Oak St · Carthage, TX 75633

$49,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1938 0.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL! This house is a prime fixer-upper opportunity consisting of 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, living room, and dining room or den. The possibilities are endless with this .48 acres lot offering plenty of space for expansion, pets, RVs, or whatever you desire! There are major repairs needed and the home is being sold AS-IS. Be very careful when viewing property as seller is not responsible for any injury that may occur.

Key facts

• Expansion space
• Pets allowed
• Rvs allowed

Tags

• FIXER-UPPER OPPORTUNITY
• EXPANSION SPACE
• PETS ALLOWED
• RVS ALLOWED
• AS-IS SALE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($883 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#258 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Carthage ISD (town): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #364 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Panola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Panola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $46,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.18%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $13,571
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $39,764
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75633

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $883 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $908/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $453

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    listed $49,900 Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL! This house is a prime fixer-upper opportunity consisting of 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, living room, and dining room or den. The possibilities are endless with this .48 acres lot offering plenty of space for expansion, pets, RVs, or whatever you desire! There are major repairs needed and the home is being sold AS-IS. Be very careful when viewing property as seller is not responsible for any injury that may occur.

16. 2025-07-02
    soldstatus
17. 2025-07-02
    soldstatus
18. 2025-06-30
    soldstatus Closed 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    City lot in residential area. Property has existing house on it that owner deems uninhabitable. No value has been given to the house. Seller is selling AS IS. Would be a great place for a mobile home.

19. 2025-04-15
    status Pending 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    City lot in residential area. Property has existing house on it that owner deems uninhabitable. No value has been given to the house. Seller is selling AS IS. Would be a great place for a mobile home.

20. 2025-04-08
    listed $20,000 Active 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    City lot in residential area. Property has existing house on it that owner deems uninhabitable. No value has been given to the house. Seller is selling AS IS. Would be a great place for a mobile home.

21. 2007-10-02
    soldstatus
22. 2005-07-13
    soldstatus
23. 2005-07-13
    soldstatus
24. 2005-07-13
    soldstatus
25. 2004-10-13
    soldstatus
26. 2003-12-08
    soldstatus
27. 1975-07-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $908 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$5/yr ($0/mo · 0.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$908
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$848
• − Management: −$848
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $3,500
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$840
• After-tax cash flow: $3,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,546
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4997
• State rank: #364 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #6081

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carthage, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,999

Population outlook (Panola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,273 people
• By 2030: 22,845 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 21,652 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 20,107 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 15,709 · -32.5%
• By 2100: 11,013 · -52.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Panola

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.7% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -48.9pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+63.5 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+56.1 2008: R+48.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.73%
• Current HPI: 162.0275
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+149.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $49,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-06-30 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2025-04-15 Pending — LAAR
• 2025-04-08 Listed $20,000 LAAR
• 2007-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1975-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $908 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.