14831 Endicott Way #316 · Apple Valley, MN 55124

$177,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 873 sqft · Condo public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1986 $429/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Apple Valley charmer! District 196. Welcome to this move-in ready rare condo in a prime Apple Valley location. This home features 2 large bedrooms, vaulted ceilings, new flooring, new paint, & new appliances, breakfast bar, laundry in unit, large deck, and access to community pool for those hot summer days . This high demand Apple Valley location is near Cobblestone Lake, Johnny Cake Ridge Park, award wining district 196 schools, numerous parks, and all with plenty of local shopping, dining, and entertaining spots. This is the one you have been waiting for! New appliances will be installed 4/2/21

Key facts

• $429 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1986

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by Network Management; Monthly association fee of $429 covering hazard insurance, lawn care, professional management, shared amenities, snow removal and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Guest parking; Shared driveway; Asphalt surfaces; 1-car garage
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Electric service (60 amp); Fuel: Electric and Natural Gas
• Home design: Attached residential property; One story; Entry level: Main
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level (15x12 and 10x10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Wall unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Informal dining area; Balcony; Main floor primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer hookup in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $177k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $177k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.0% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#10 in MN, #379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 277 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.

Recommended offer $174,345 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.85%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-20,382
• Equity at exit: $26,391

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,772
• Equity at exit: $15,304

Cash invested: $49,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55124

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$928
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,476/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$429
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,967

Max offer price $177,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $168	+0% $118	+5% $67	+10% $17
Rent	-10% $-50	-5% $34	+0% $118	+5% $201	+10% $285
Rate	-1.0pp $207	-0.5pp $163	base $118	+0.5pp $72	+1.0pp $25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,250
• Closing costs: $5,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5520 142nd St W Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,785	$1.80	0d	10	0.66mi
15899 Elmhurst Ln Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$2,268	$2.20	0d	14	1.02mi
5181 161st St W Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,973	$1.89	0d	4	1.18mi
14650 Foliage Ave Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$2,263	$2.31	0d	24	1.19mi
5076 161st St W Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1186	$2,203	$1.86	0d	14	1.24mi
15539 Float Ln Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	927	$1,795	$1.94	25d	1	1.34mi
15531 Flyboat Ln Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	1010	$1,865	$1.85	25d	1	1.39mi
15533 Flight Way Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	976	$1,995	$2.04	25d	1	1.39mi
6780 Fortino St Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$4,085	$3.66	0d	12	1.44mi
14600 Shannon Pkwy Rosemount, MN	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $429 · $5,148/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $177,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $177,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $177,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $177,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $177,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $177,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $177,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $177,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $177,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $177,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $177,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $177,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $177,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $177,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    historical $177,000
16. 2026-05-26
    historical
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $177,000
18. 2021-05-07
    soldstatus $154,000 Sold 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    Apple Valley charmer! District 196. Welcome to this move-in ready rare condo in a prime Apple Valley location. This home features 2 large bedrooms, vaulted ceilings, new flooring, new paint, & new appliances, breakfast bar, laundry in unit, large deck, and access to community pool for those hot summer days . This high demand Apple Valley location is near Cobblestone Lake, Johnny Cake Ridge Park, award wining district 196 schools, numerous parks, and all with plenty of local shopping, dining, and entertaining spots. This is the one you have been waiting for! New appliances will be installed 4/2/21

19. 2021-04-23
    status Pending 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    Apple Valley charmer! District 196. Welcome to this move-in ready rare condo in a prime Apple Valley location. This home features 2 large bedrooms, vaulted ceilings, new flooring, new paint, & new appliances, breakfast bar, laundry in unit, large deck, and access to community pool for those hot summer days . This high demand Apple Valley location is near Cobblestone Lake, Johnny Cake Ridge Park, award wining district 196 schools, numerous parks, and all with plenty of local shopping, dining, and entertaining spots. This is the one you have been waiting for! New appliances will be installed 4/2/21

20. 2021-04-06
    historical Contingent - Inspection 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    Apple Valley charmer! District 196. Welcome to this move-in ready rare condo in a prime Apple Valley location. This home features 2 large bedrooms, vaulted ceilings, new flooring, new paint, & new appliances, breakfast bar, laundry in unit, large deck, and access to community pool for those hot summer days . This high demand Apple Valley location is near Cobblestone Lake, Johnny Cake Ridge Park, award wining district 196 schools, numerous parks, and all with plenty of local shopping, dining, and entertaining spots. This is the one you have been waiting for! New appliances will be installed 4/2/21

21. 2021-04-01
    listed $154,900 Active 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    Apple Valley charmer! District 196. Welcome to this move-in ready rare condo in a prime Apple Valley location. This home features 2 large bedrooms, vaulted ceilings, new flooring, new paint, & new appliances, breakfast bar, laundry in unit, large deck, and access to community pool for those hot summer days . This high demand Apple Valley location is near Cobblestone Lake, Johnny Cake Ridge Park, award wining district 196 schools, numerous parks, and all with plenty of local shopping, dining, and entertaining spots. This is the one you have been waiting for! New appliances will be installed 4/2/21

22. 2021-03-29
    historical $154,900 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    Apple Valley charmer! District 196. Welcome to this move-in ready rare condo in a prime Apple Valley location. This home features 2 large bedrooms, vaulted ceilings, new flooring, new paint, & new appliances, breakfast bar, laundry in unit, large deck, and access to community pool for those hot summer days . This high demand Apple Valley location is near Cobblestone Lake, Johnny Cake Ridge Park, award wining district 196 schools, numerous parks, and all with plenty of local shopping, dining, and entertaining spots. This is the one you have been waiting for! New appliances will be installed 4/2/21

23. 1987-04-01
    soldstatus $52,960

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,729 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$253/yr (+$21/mo · 17.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,476
• − Insurance: −$885
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,031
• − Management: −$2,031
• − HOA: −$5,148
• − Depreciation: −$5,149
• Taxable loss: −$1,245
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$299
• After-tax cash flow: $1,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2732390
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $85,559
• Composite: 49.48/100
• National rank: #2000
• State rank: #58 of 301 in MN

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 55,658
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 55,658
• Household income: $97,727
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1406.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -275.56%
• Current HPI: 227.4734
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+234.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Coming Soon $177,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $177,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-07 Sold (MLS) $154,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-23 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-06 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-01 Listed $154,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-29 Coming Soon $154,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,960 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,476 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.