440 Cases Ln · Cutchogue, NY 11935

$1,349,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 1959 0.35 ac lot $613/sqft · at area comps Est $1383k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Classic 1950s Four-Bedroom, Two-Bath Home This well-kept vintage residence offers light-filled rooms, hardwood floors, and a practical four-bedroom, two-bath layout. A two-car garage provides ample storage. Conveniently located near town, the library, public golf course, Cutchogue Historical Society, & preserved land. Whether you’re searching for a welcoming starter home or a relaxing second home, this property offers both charm and practicality. Public transportation is nearby, making commuting simple and stress-free.

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1959

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Electricity available (PSEG); Water available; Cesspool sewer; Tankless water heater
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Updated / remodeled
• Construction: Cedar construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built/updated (updated/remodeled)
• Exterior features: Cedar exterior; Covered porch; Full unfinished basement with walk-out access; Crawl attic; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Exhaust fan; Freezer; Gas range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Stone countertops; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Open kitchen; Walk-through access to other rooms
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Electric cooling; Tankless water heater
• Interior features: First-floor full bath; Eat-in kitchen; ENERGY STAR qualified doors; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; His and hers closets; Kitchen island; Natural woodwork; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Master suite on the main level; Recessed lighting; Stone countertops; Storage; Walk-through kitchen; Walk-in closet(s); Washer/dryer hookup; Covered porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Washer hookup; Washer/dryer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry room (inside, in hall)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.35M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($93k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.35M).
• Recommended offer: $1.31M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#843 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $144k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $135k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $378k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$232k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.31M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $150k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $860k; list at $1.35M implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,308,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.67%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,383,304
• List price: $1,349,000
• Delta: -2.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1125 Pequash Ave	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,200 (0%)	1mo	$861,000	$391	68
1760 Crown Land Ln	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,246 (+2%)	11mo	$1,515,000	$675	64
1215 Country Club Dr	0.53mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,200 (0%)	18mo	$1,585,000	$720	55
555 Alvahs Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,100 (-4%)	17mo	$1,020,000	$486	54
2870 Fairway Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-14%)	7mo	$1,280,000	$674	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.25×
• Total profit: $1,229,050
• Equity at exit: $1,215,286

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.55×
• Total profit: $3,229,762
• Equity at exit: $2,620,810

Cash invested: $377,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11935

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,074
• Tax from tax record: −$696 /mo · $8,350/yr
• Insurance: −$562
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,279
• Net cashflow: $7,766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,547

Max offer price $1,349,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8,530	-5% $8,148	+0% $7,766	+5% $7,385	+10% $7,003
Rent	-10% $6,157	-5% $6,962	+0% $7,766	+5% $8,571	+10% $9,376
Rate	-1.0pp $8,446	-0.5pp $8,110	base $7,766	+0.5pp $7,417	+1.0pp $7,061

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $337,250
• Closing costs: $40,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1100 Alvahs Ln Cutchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2400	$24,200	$10.08	44d	1	0.47mi
530 Stillwater Ave Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.5	1800	$15,000	$8.33	44d	1	0.61mi
4900 Depot Ln Cutchogue, NY	3.0	1.5	1800	$3,900	$2.17	44d	1	1.16mi
25 Moose Trl Cutchogue, NY	4.0	2.0	2600	$20,000	$7.69	44d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,349,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,349,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,349,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $1,349,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,399,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,399,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,399,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,399,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,399,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,399,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,399,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,399,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,399,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,399,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,399,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $1,499,000 Active 2507-char remark
17. 2026-02-05
    soldstatus $860,000
18. 2025-12-30
    soldstatus $860,000 Closed 536-char remark

    Show marketing remark (536 chars)

    Classic 1950s Four-Bedroom, Two-Bath Home This well-kept vintage residence offers light-filled rooms, hardwood floors, and a practical four-bedroom, two-bath layout. A two-car garage provides ample storage. Conveniently located near town, the library, public golf course, Cutchogue Historical Society, & preserved land. Whether you’re searching for a welcoming starter home or a relaxing second home, this property offers both charm and practicality. Public transportation is nearby, making commuting simple and stress-free.

19. 2025-12-09
    status Pending 536-char remark

    Show marketing remark (536 chars)

    Classic 1950s Four-Bedroom, Two-Bath Home This well-kept vintage residence offers light-filled rooms, hardwood floors, and a practical four-bedroom, two-bath layout. A two-car garage provides ample storage. Conveniently located near town, the library, public golf course, Cutchogue Historical Society, & preserved land. Whether you’re searching for a welcoming starter home or a relaxing second home, this property offers both charm and practicality. Public transportation is nearby, making commuting simple and stress-free.

20. 2025-12-02
    status Active 536-char remark

    Show marketing remark (536 chars)

    Classic 1950s Four-Bedroom, Two-Bath Home This well-kept vintage residence offers light-filled rooms, hardwood floors, and a practical four-bedroom, two-bath layout. A two-car garage provides ample storage. Conveniently located near town, the library, public golf course, Cutchogue Historical Society, & preserved land. Whether you’re searching for a welcoming starter home or a relaxing second home, this property offers both charm and practicality. Public transportation is nearby, making commuting simple and stress-free.

21. 2025-09-29
    listed $875,000 Active 536-char remark

    Show marketing remark (536 chars)

    Classic 1950s Four-Bedroom, Two-Bath Home This well-kept vintage residence offers light-filled rooms, hardwood floors, and a practical four-bedroom, two-bath layout. A two-car garage provides ample storage. Conveniently located near town, the library, public golf course, Cutchogue Historical Society, & preserved land. Whether you’re searching for a welcoming starter home or a relaxing second home, this property offers both charm and practicality. Public transportation is nearby, making commuting simple and stress-free.

22. 2025-09-26
    historical $875,000 536-char remark

    Show marketing remark (536 chars)

    Classic 1950s Four-Bedroom, Two-Bath Home This well-kept vintage residence offers light-filled rooms, hardwood floors, and a practical four-bedroom, two-bath layout. A two-car garage provides ample storage. Conveniently located near town, the library, public golf course, Cutchogue Historical Society, & preserved land. Whether you’re searching for a welcoming starter home or a relaxing second home, this property offers both charm and practicality. Public transportation is nearby, making commuting simple and stress-free.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,350 · $696/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,574 · $1,298/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,224/yr (+$602/mo · 86.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $244,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$75,565
• − Property taxes: −$8,350
• − Insurance: −$6,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,563
• − Management: −$19,563
• − Depreciation: −$39,244
• Taxable income: $75,507
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18,122
• After-tax cash flow: $75,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cutchogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #16353

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cutchogue, NY
• City population: 2,946
• Population (ZIP): 2,946

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.82%
• Current HPI: 467.3019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+54.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $1,349,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $1,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $1,499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $860,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-30 Sold (MLS) $860,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Listed $875,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Coming Soon $875,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,350 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.