440 Cases Ln · Cutchogue, NY 11935

$1,199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 185 Days on market

Built 1959 Poor condition 0.35 ac lot 2-car garage $545/sqft · 12% below area Est $1.367M · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Classic 1950s Four-Bedroom, Two-Bath Home This well-kept vintage residence offers light-filled rooms, hardwood floors, and a practical four-bedroom, two-bath layout. A two-car garage provides ample storage. Conveniently located near town, the library, public golf course, Cutchogue Historical Society, & preserved land. Whether you’re searching for a welcoming starter home or a relaxing second home, this property offers both charm and practicality. Public transportation is nearby, making commuting simple and stress-free.

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1959

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($91k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.20M).
• Recommended offer: $1.06M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#843 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $128k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $120k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $336k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$206k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.06M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $300k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $860k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,055,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.15%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,367,000
• List price: $1,199,000
• Delta: -12.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1125 Pequash Ave	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,200 (0%)	6mo	$861,000	$391	69
1760 Crown Land Ln	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,246 (+2%)	15mo	$1,515,000	$675	61
555 Alvahs Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,100 (-4%)	21mo	$1,020,000	$486	54
1215 Country Club Dr	0.53mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,200 (0%)	23mo	$1,585,000	$720	47
2870 Fairway Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-14%)	12mo	$1,280,000	$674	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $1,136,554
• Equity at exit: $1,080,154

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.84×
• Total profit: $2,966,136
• Equity at exit: $2,329,393

Cash invested: $335,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $1,299,000 ($590/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11935

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $19,087 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,288
• Tax from tax record: −$696 /mo · $8,350/yr
• Insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,008
• Net cashflow: $7,595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,472

Max offer price $1,199,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8,274	-5% $7,935	+0% $7,595	+5% $7,256	+10% $6,917
Rent	-10% $6,088	-5% $6,841	+0% $7,595	+5% $8,349	+10% $9,103
Rate	-1.0pp $8,199	-0.5pp $7,900	base $7,595	+0.5pp $7,285	+1.0pp $6,969

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $299,750
• Closing costs: $35,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1410 New Suffolk Rd Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,650	$2.03	29d	1	0.16mi
1100 Alvahs Ln Cutchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2400	$24,200	$10.08	184d	1	0.47mi
530 Stillwater Ave Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.5	1800	$15,000	$8.33	6d	1	0.61mi
3655 Pequash Ave Cutchogue, NY	4.0	2.0	2400	$30,000	$12.50	10d	1	0.82mi
215 Kouros Rd New Suffolk, NY	5.0	3.0	2500	$16,000	$6.40	2d	1	1.09mi
4900 Depot Ln Cutchogue, NY	3.0	1.5	1800	$3,800	$2.11	20d	1	1.16mi
4900 Depot Ln Cutchogue, NY	3.0	1.5	1800	$3,800	$2.11	0d	1	1.16mi
25 Moose Trl Cutchogue, NY	4.0	2.0	2600	$20,000	$7.69	5d	1	1.19mi
875 Deerfoot Path Cutchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2532	$10,000	$3.95	0d	1	1.23mi
150 King St New Suffolk, NY	4.0	2.5	2000	$4,500	$2.25	47d	1	1.25mi
1020 Monsell Ln Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1870	$6,000	$3.21	0d	1	1.41mi
5415 Skunk Ln Cutchogue, NY	3.0	3.0	1800	$18,000	$10.00	10d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway2-car garageNo carport
• Utilities: Electricity available (PSEG)Water availableCesspool sewerTankless water heater
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo levelsUpdated / remodeled
• Construction: Cedar constructionConcrete perimeter foundationBuilt/updated (updated/remodeled)
• Exterior features: Cedar exteriorCovered porchFull unfinished basement with walk-out accessCrawl atticNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection ovenDishwasherENERGY STAR qualified appliancesExhaust fanFreezerGas rangeRefrigeratorStainless steel appliancesStone countertopsKitchen islandEat-in kitchenOpen kitchenWalk-through access to other rooms
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heatingElectric coolingTankless water heater
• Interior features: First-floor full bathEat-in kitchenENERGY STAR qualified doorsEntrance foyerFormal dining roomHis and hers closetsKitchen islandNatural woodworkOpen floorplanOpen kitchenPrimary bathroomMaster suite on the main levelRecessed lightingStone countertopsStorageWalk-through kitchenWalk-in closet(s)Washer/dryer hookupCovered porch
• Laundry & utility: WasherWasher hookupWasher/dryer hookupElectric dryer hookupLaundry room (inside, in hall)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $1,199,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $1,199,000 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $1,199,000 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $1,199,000 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $1,199,000 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $1,199,000 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $1,199,000 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $1,199,000 Active 177 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $1,199,000 Active 176 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $1,199,000 Active 175 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $1,199,000 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $1,199,000 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $1,199,000 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $1,199,000 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $1,199,000 Active 170 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $1,199,000 Active 169 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $1,199,000 Active 168 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    pricedays on market $1,199,000 Active 167 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 166 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 165 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 164 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 163 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 162 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 161 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 160 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 159 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 158 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 157 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 156 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 155 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 154 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 153 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 152 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 151 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 150 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 149 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 148 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 147 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 146 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 145 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 144 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 143 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 142 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 141 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 140 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 139 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 136 DOM
48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 134 DOM
49. 2026-09-17
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 133 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $1,249,000 Active 132 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,350 · $696/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,307 · $1,192/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,956/yr (+$496/mo · 71.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $229,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$67,163
• − Property taxes: −$8,350
• − Insurance: −$5,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,323
• − Management: −$18,323
• − Depreciation: −$34,880
• Taxable income: $76,006
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18,241
• After-tax cash flow: $72,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $110,000–$198,000 screening

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including exterior renovation, HVAC upgrade, and landscaping. Significant improvements in curb appeal and property value can be achieved with these updates.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant damage and peeling paint
• Major roof — No visible damage, but independent image suggests potential issues
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals, but independent image suggests potential issues
• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and lack of maintenance

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior renovation — Significant improvements in curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both HVAC upgrade — Modern, energy-efficient HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 70/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School B+ NY #575/2,108 Nat'l #4,825/41,679 High Mattituck Junior-Senior High School B+ NY #670/1,100 Nat'l #1,820/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Cutchogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #16353

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cutchogue, NY
• County: Suffolk · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 2,946
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 2,946
• Household income: $138,024
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.82%
• Current HPI: 467.3019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway2-car garageNo carport
• Utilities: Electricity available (PSEG)Water availableCesspool sewerTankless water heater
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo levelsUpdated / remodeled
• Construction: Cedar constructionConcrete perimeter foundationBuilt/updated (updated/remodeled)
• Exterior features: Cedar exteriorCovered porchFull unfinished basement with walk-out accessCrawl atticNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection ovenDishwasherENERGY STAR qualified appliancesExhaust fanFreezerGas rangeRefrigeratorStainless steel appliancesStone countertopsKitchen islandEat-in kitchenOpen kitchenWalk-through access to other rooms
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heatingElectric coolingTankless water heater
• Interior features: First-floor full bathEat-in kitchenENERGY STAR qualified doorsEntrance foyerFormal dining roomHis and hers closetsKitchen islandNatural woodworkOpen floorplanOpen kitchenPrimary bathroomMaster suite on the main levelRecessed lightingStone countertopsStorageWalk-through kitchenWalk-in closet(s)Washer/dryer hookupCovered porch
• Laundry & utility: WasherWasher hookupWasher/dryer hookupElectric dryer hookupLaundry room (inside, in hall)

Price history

+54.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $1,349,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $1,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $1,499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $860,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-30 Sold (MLS) $860,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Listed $875,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Coming Soon $875,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,350 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.