307 Boxwood Ave · New Home, TX 79381

$524,999

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,515 sqft · SingleFamily · 213 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 1.11 ac lot $38/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover exceptional new construction by Victory Homes in the highly desirable New Home Estates community. Set on just over an acre, this thoughtfully designed residence offers 4 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, a dedicated office, and a 2-car garage - providing ample space for both everyday living and future growth. Inside, you'll find a beautifully planned layout that blends comfort and functionality with elegant style. From the spacious living areas to the well-appointed kitchen and private bedroom suites, every detail reflects quality craftsmanship and modern convenience. The dedicated office adds valuable versatility, while the expansive homesite offers endless possibilities for outdoor living, play, or future additions. Located within New Home ISD, this property combines peaceful acreage living with the benefits of a newly built home. Don't miss the opportunity to experience the craftsmanship and space this Victory Homes build has to offer. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• New construction
• Expansive homesite
• Dedicated office

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• EXPANSIVE HOMESITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $525k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $510k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $462k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#343 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• New Home ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #16 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lynn County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $147k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($462k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $461,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.96%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $91,132
• Equity at exit: $241,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $286,491
• Equity at exit: $375,386

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79381

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$656 /mo · $7,875/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,071
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,641

Max offer price $524,999

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $726	-5% $544	+0% $363	+5% $181	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-40	-5% $161	+0% $363	+5% $564	+10% $766
Rate	-1.0pp $627	-0.5pp $496	base $363	+0.5pp $227	+1.0pp $88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 Juniper St New Home, TX	4.0	3.0	2594	$5,100	$1.97	15d	1	0.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $524,999 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $524,999 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $524,999 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $524,999 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $524,999 Active 208 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $524,999 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $524,999 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $524,999 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $524,999 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $524,999 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $524,999 Active 198 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $524,999 Active 197 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $524,999 Active 196 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $524,999 Active 195 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $524,999 Active 194 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $524,999 981-char remark

    Show marketing remark (981 chars)

    Discover exceptional new construction by Victory Homes in the highly desirable New Home Estates community. Set on just over an acre, this thoughtfully designed residence offers 4 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, a dedicated office, and a 2-car garage - providing ample space for both everyday living and future growth. Inside, you'll find a beautifully planned layout that blends comfort and functionality with elegant style. From the spacious living areas to the well-appointed kitchen and private bedroom suites, every detail reflects quality craftsmanship and modern convenience. The dedicated office adds valuable versatility, while the expansive homesite offers endless possibilities for outdoor living, play, or future additions. Located within New Home ISD, this property combines peaceful acreage living with the benefits of a newly built home. Don't miss the opportunity to experience the craftsmanship and space this Victory Homes build has to offer. Schedule your showing today.

17. 2026-04-11
    price $549,999 981-char remark

    Show marketing remark (981 chars)

    Discover exceptional new construction by Victory Homes in the highly desirable New Home Estates community. Set on just over an acre, this thoughtfully designed residence offers 4 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, a dedicated office, and a 2-car garage - providing ample space for both everyday living and future growth. Inside, you'll find a beautifully planned layout that blends comfort and functionality with elegant style. From the spacious living areas to the well-appointed kitchen and private bedroom suites, every detail reflects quality craftsmanship and modern convenience. The dedicated office adds valuable versatility, while the expansive homesite offers endless possibilities for outdoor living, play, or future additions. Located within New Home ISD, this property combines peaceful acreage living with the benefits of a newly built home. Don't miss the opportunity to experience the craftsmanship and space this Victory Homes build has to offer. Schedule your showing today.

18. 2025-11-17
    listed $593,500 Active 981-char remark

    Show marketing remark (981 chars)

    Discover exceptional new construction by Victory Homes in the highly desirable New Home Estates community. Set on just over an acre, this thoughtfully designed residence offers 4 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, a dedicated office, and a 2-car garage - providing ample space for both everyday living and future growth. Inside, you'll find a beautifully planned layout that blends comfort and functionality with elegant style. From the spacious living areas to the well-appointed kitchen and private bedroom suites, every detail reflects quality craftsmanship and modern convenience. The dedicated office adds valuable versatility, while the expansive homesite offers endless possibilities for outdoor living, play, or future additions. Located within New Home ISD, this property combines peaceful acreage living with the benefits of a newly built home. Don't miss the opportunity to experience the craftsmanship and space this Victory Homes build has to offer. Schedule your showing today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$7,875
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,896
• − Management: −$4,896
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,015
• After-tax cash flow: $5,369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new construction home in New Home Estates is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a high ROI with updates in landscaping, interior paint, and kitchen appliances to maximize resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting interior
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting interior ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Home ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832490
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,372
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #845
• State rank: #16 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Home

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #7488

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 47
• Population (ZIP): 1,457

Population outlook (Lynn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,360 people
• By 2030: 5,162 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 4,811 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 4,422 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 3,362 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 2,177 · -59.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 22% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynn

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.3) · D 14.4% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: -40.0pp · 2024: -70.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.3 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+57.2 2012: R+49.3 2008: R+40.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Current HPI: 125.9221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $524,999 LARMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $549,999 LARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $593,500 LARMLS