919 Bradford Hill Rd · Ticonderoga, NY 12928

$89,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1954 0.31 ac lot $62/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 5 bedroom, 2 bath country charm home sits on .31 acre lot. One bedroom and one bath on the main level. Wood stove, claw tub, loft area, metal roof. This home is looking for its next owner.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Wood stove
• Claw tub

Tags

• WOOD STOVE
• CLAW TUB
• LOFT AREA
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 2.2% in Ticonderoga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#182 in NY, #2,828 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Crown Point Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #412 of 755 in NY (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $90k implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $314/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.84%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,359
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -58.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $35,826
• Equity at exit: $58,393

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $99,271
• Equity at exit: $107,554

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12928

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,397 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,889/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$314 /mo · $3,765/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,241

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $149	+0% $123	+5% $98	+10% $73
Rent	-10% $13	-5% $68	+0% $123	+5% $179	+10% $234
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $146	base $123	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,900 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-03-13
    listed $89,900 Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    This 5 bedroom, 2 bath country charm home sits on .31 acre lot. One bedroom and one bath on the main level. Wood stove, claw tub, loft area, metal roof. This home is looking for its next owner.

17. 2024-04-04
    status Active
18. 2024-03-15
    historical Contingent
19. 2024-03-15
    historical
20. 2024-01-16
    listed $89,900 Active
21. 2018-05-29
    historical
22. 2017-11-29
    listed $52,900
23. 2017-11-25
    historical
24. 2017-02-27
    listed $58,000
25. 2002-04-03
    soldstatus $35,000
26. 1999-09-08
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,889 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,889 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,889
• − Insurance: −$4,214
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,341
• − Management: −$1,341
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $326
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$78
• After-tax cash flow: $1,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crown Point Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608610
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,027
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #5222
• State rank: #412 of 755 in NY

Livability — Ticonderoga

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #2828

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,805

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.33%
• Current HPI: 346.2898
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+349.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $89,900 Global MLS
• 2024-04-04 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2024-03-15 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2024-03-15 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2024-01-16 Listed $89,900 Global MLS
• 2018-05-29 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2017-11-29 Listed $52,900 Global MLS
• 2017-11-25 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2017-02-27 Listed $58,000 Global MLS
• 2002-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1999-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,889 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.