226 Road 590108 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$167,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 185 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $105/sqft · at area comps Est $175k · at est. $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 22080049 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600 A1 - Seminole The Seminole Plan from our Celebration Series delivers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that balances open living spaces with private retreats. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,600 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed to support the way you live today. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and inviting foyer, leading into an open kitchen, dining, and living area that creates a natural flow for everyday living and entertaining. A patio door off the dining and living space extends the home outdoors, while a conveniently located half bath adds functionality for guests. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for relaxing, working, or play. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and a dedicated bath, offering a comfortable place to unwind. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, and the upstairs laundry room.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 184 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $168k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1578 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $147,831 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.01%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,989
• List price: $167,990
• Delta: -4.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
673 Maria Elena Way	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-12%)	1mo	$180,991	$128	68
735 Road 5714	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,600 (0%)	17mo	$185,990	$116	62
2108 County Road 3556	0.57mi	3/3.5	1,800 (+12%)	10mo	$239,900	$133	40
243 Road 5821	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+13%)	18mo	$208,990	$116	40
258 Road 5821	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+13%)	18mo	$179,990	$100	39
226 Road 5821	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+13%)	16mo	$176,990	$98	38
1200 Road 5823	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+13%)	15mo	$211,990	$118	36
1777 Road 5722	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,805 (+13%)	14mo	$295,000	$163	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-10,388
• Equity at exit: $25,048

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $17,968
• Equity at exit: $14,525

Cash invested: $47,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1578
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,780 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$210 /mo · $2,520/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,482

Max offer price $167,990

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $351	-5% $293	+0% $235	+5% $177	+10% $119
Rent	-10% $95	-5% $165	+0% $235	+5% $306	+10% $376
Rate	-1.0pp $320	-0.5pp $278	base $235	+0.5pp $192	+1.0pp $148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,998
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
662 Road 590110 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	13d	1	0.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $167,990 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $167,990 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $167,990 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $171,990 Active 181 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $171,990 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $171,990 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $171,990 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $171,990 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $171,990 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $171,990 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $171,990 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $171,990 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $171,990 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $171,990 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $171,990 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $175,990 982-char remark

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    MLS# 22080049 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600 A1 - Seminole The Seminole Plan from our Celebration Series delivers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that balances open living spaces with private retreats. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,600 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed to support the way you live today. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and inviting foyer, leading into an open kitchen, dining, and living area that creates a natural flow for everyday living and entertaining. A patio door off the dining and living space extends the home outdoors, while a conveniently located half bath adds functionality for guests. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for relaxing, working, or play. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and a dedicated bath, offering a comfortable place to unwind. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, and the upstairs laundry room.

17. 2026-04-23
    price $182,990 982-char remark

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    MLS# 22080049 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600 A1 - Seminole The Seminole Plan from our Celebration Series delivers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that balances open living spaces with private retreats. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,600 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed to support the way you live today. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and inviting foyer, leading into an open kitchen, dining, and living area that creates a natural flow for everyday living and entertaining. A patio door off the dining and living space extends the home outdoors, while a conveniently located half bath adds functionality for guests. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for relaxing, working, or play. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and a dedicated bath, offering a comfortable place to unwind. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, and the upstairs laundry room.

18. 2026-03-25
    price $189,990 982-char remark

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    MLS# 22080049 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600 A1 - Seminole The Seminole Plan from our Celebration Series delivers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that balances open living spaces with private retreats. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,600 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed to support the way you live today. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and inviting foyer, leading into an open kitchen, dining, and living area that creates a natural flow for everyday living and entertaining. A patio door off the dining and living space extends the home outdoors, while a conveniently located half bath adds functionality for guests. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for relaxing, working, or play. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and a dedicated bath, offering a comfortable place to unwind. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, and the upstairs laundry room.

19. 2026-03-11
    price $194,990 982-char remark

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    MLS# 22080049 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600 A1 - Seminole The Seminole Plan from our Celebration Series delivers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that balances open living spaces with private retreats. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,600 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed to support the way you live today. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and inviting foyer, leading into an open kitchen, dining, and living area that creates a natural flow for everyday living and entertaining. A patio door off the dining and living space extends the home outdoors, while a conveniently located half bath adds functionality for guests. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for relaxing, working, or play. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and a dedicated bath, offering a comfortable place to unwind. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, and the upstairs laundry room.

20. 2026-02-12
    price $210,990 982-char remark

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    MLS# 22080049 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600 A1 - Seminole The Seminole Plan from our Celebration Series delivers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that balances open living spaces with private retreats. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,600 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed to support the way you live today. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and inviting foyer, leading into an open kitchen, dining, and living area that creates a natural flow for everyday living and entertaining. A patio door off the dining and living space extends the home outdoors, while a conveniently located half bath adds functionality for guests. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for relaxing, working, or play. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and a dedicated bath, offering a comfortable place to unwind. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, and the upstairs laundry room.

21. 2025-12-18
    listed $211,100 Active 982-char remark

    Show marketing remark (982 chars)

    MLS# 22080049 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1600 A1 - Seminole The Seminole Plan from our Celebration Series delivers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that balances open living spaces with private retreats. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,600 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed to support the way you live today. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and inviting foyer, leading into an open kitchen, dining, and living area that creates a natural flow for everyday living and entertaining. A patio door off the dining and living space extends the home outdoors, while a conveniently located half bath adds functionality for guests. Upstairs, a versatile loft provides flexible space for relaxing, working, or play. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and a dedicated bath, offering a comfortable place to unwind. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, and the upstairs laundry room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,410
• − Property taxes: −$2,520
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,709
• − Management: −$1,709
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable income: $167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$40
• After-tax cash flow: $2,784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs needed. It offers a great balance of open living spaces and private retreats.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants
• Both Appliance upgrades — Modernizing appliances can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants ↑
• Both Appliance upgrades — Modernizing appliances can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $175,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $182,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $189,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $194,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $210,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $211,100 HARMLS