2251 Howe Rd · Burton, MI 48519

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,051 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 1952 0.52 ac lot $94/sqft · 32% below area Est $145k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• Garage
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.8% in Burton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#555 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Atherton Community Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #481 of 540 in MI (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 31y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $99k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.20%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,380
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -31.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2251 Howe Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,051 (0%)	0mo	$83,000	$79	100
2237 Howe Rd	0.03mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,019 (-3%)	14mo	$130,000	$128	77
4441 Sunnymead Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (+1%)	3mo	$200,000	$188	68
4350 Chicory Ln	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-4%)	6mo	$221,350	$220	68
2090 Bramblewood Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,090 (+4%)	7mo	$128,500	$118	66
2167 Sandalwood Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,196 (+14%)	6mo	$125,000	$105	58
2101 Sandalwood Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-9%)	14mo	$154,900	$161	55
2072 Sandalwood Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+14%)	4mo	$165,000	$138	48
4497 Sunnymead Ave	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,196 (+14%)	0mo	$219,100	$183	45
4269 E Atherton Rd	0.51mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,180 (+12%)	6mo	$200,000	$169	44
2453 Clarice Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,190 (+13%)	1mo	$60,000	$50	40
3399 Bilsky St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,166 (+11%)	11mo	$125,000	$107	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-2,489
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $15,350
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48519

• Home prices YoY: -20.5%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,610/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $879

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $240	+0% $212	+5% $184	+10% $156
Rent	-10% $122	-5% $167	+0% $212	+5% $258	+10% $303
Rate	-1.0pp $262	-0.5pp $238	base $212	+0.5pp $187	+1.0pp $161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
132 Pine Blf Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$953	$0.99	45d	1	1.25mi
3440 Creekside Blvd Burton, MI	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,424	$0.94	14d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-02
   price $99,000
2. 2026-05-02
   price $99,000
3. 2026-04-22
   price $115,000
4. 2026-04-22
   price $115,000
5. 2026-04-13
   listed $125,000 Active
6. 2026-04-13
   listed $125,000 Active
7. 1996-01-17
   soldstatus $48,000
8. 1996-01-17
   soldstatus $48,000
9. 1995-10-17
   historical
10. 1995-09-11
    listed $47,900
11. 1995-09-11
    listed $47,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,610
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,102
• − Management: −$1,102
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,042
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$250
• After-tax cash flow: $2,299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Atherton Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603540
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,416
• Composite: 15.21/100
• National rank: #9341
• State rank: #481 of 540 in MI

Livability — Burton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #17380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burton, MI
• City population: 26,014
• Population (ZIP): 7,523

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.66%
• Current HPI: 255.0753
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+106.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $99,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $99,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $115,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-13 Listed $125,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-13 Listed $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1996-01-17 Sold (MLS) $48,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1996-01-17 Sold (MLS) $48,000 REALCOMP
• 1995-10-17 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1995-09-11 Listed $47,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1995-09-11 Listed $47,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,610 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.