211 Dowden Rd · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,556 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2012 6,098 sqft lot $138/sqft · 19% below area Est $266k · 19% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 211 Dowden Rd in Wolfforth, TX -- a clean, move-in ready 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in the highly desirable Friendship ISD, just minutes from Friendship High School, shopping, and quick access to Lubbock. This home offers a smart, open-concept layout with a spacious living room, cozy fireplace, and great natural light -- perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a ton of cabinet space, and a functional flow into the dining area. The isolated primary suite provides privacy and comfort, while the additional bedrooms are well-sized for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to a great-sized yard with plenty of room for pets, kids

Key facts

• Great-sized yard
• Great natural light
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• COZY FIREPLACE
• GREAT NATURAL LIGHT
• ISOLATED PRIMARY SUITE
• GREAT-SIZED YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,556 above grade
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Bar and dry bar; Breakfast bar; Fireplace in family room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Upland Heights El (math 49% / reading 55%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 840 students, 46% FRL); Frenship Middle (math 46% / reading 50%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 833 students, 47% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,180 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.82%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,518
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -13.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $105,049
• Equity at exit: $193,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $319,232
• Equity at exit: $417,698

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,883 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$462 /mo · $5,543/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,125

Max offer price $181,180

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-70	-5% $-131	+0% $-191	+5% $-252	+10% $-313
Rent	-10% $-340	-5% $-266	+0% $-191	+5% $-117	+10% $-43
Rate	-1.0pp $-83	-0.5pp $-137	base $-191	+0.5pp $-247	+1.0pp $-304

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
127 Brooke Blvd Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,757	$1.03	14d	2	0.27mi
328 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,450	$1.20	14d	1	0.29mi
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	14d	1	0.32mi
209 Sooner St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,875	$0.96	44d	1	0.36mi
611 E 14th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,725	$1.33	44d	1	0.87mi
1313 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	14d	1	0.92mi
811 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,595	$1.05	44d	1	0.95mi
1019 Donald Preston Dr Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,275	$0.91	21d	1	0.95mi
1019 Donald Preston Dr Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,275	$0.91	44d	1	0.95mi
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	14d	1	0.95mi
906 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	44d	1	0.99mi
1216 Donald Preston Dr Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	44d	1	1.03mi
1224 Donald Preston Dr Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,550	$1.11	44d	1	1.03mi
7811 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,195	$1.13	21d	1	1.06mi
132 Calvin Dr Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1652	$2,300	$1.39	14d	1	1.07mi
1503 Good Prairie Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,450	$1.13	21d	1	1.08mi
7805 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,150	$1.14	44d	1	1.09mi
7811 86th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,025	$1.18	21d	1	1.11mi
1712 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	2.0	2.0	1335	$1,375	$1.03	44d	1	1.15mi
7732 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	21d	1	1.15mi
7729 92nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	1810	$2,495	$1.38	21d	1	1.15mi
7731 97th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	21d	1	1.16mi
7729 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1978	$2,300	$1.16	14d	1	1.17mi
723 E 17th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	44d	1	1.18mi
304 E 19th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,150	$1.03	14d	1	1.19mi
816 N 4th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,100	$1.20	44d	1	1.20mi
1817 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,600	$1.14	14d	1	1.26mi
2304 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,425	$1.08	44d	1	1.28mi
2008 Cottonwood Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,810	$1.25	44d	1	1.28mi
2001 Bryan Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,400	$1.03	44d	1	1.29mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit 2001 B Corpus Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	1.30mi
2001 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	14d	1	1.30mi
2008 Bryan Ave Unit Harvest-2008 A Bryan Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,400	$1.14	44d	1	1.33mi
2006 Corpus Ave Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,425	$1.17	14d	1	1.33mi
2408 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,100	$1.23	21d	1	1.34mi
2418 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	44d	1	1.34mi
2011 Bryan Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	44d	1	1.35mi
407 E 21st St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,399	$1.03	21d	1	1.37mi
7510 102nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,600	$1.06	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $215,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $215,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,999 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,999 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,999 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,999 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $219,999 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $219,999 841-char remark
16. 2026-05-10
    listed $220,000 Active 841-char remark
17. 2026-04-13
    price $229,999
18. 2012-06-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,543 · $462/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,543 · $462/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$5,543
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,808
• − Management: −$1,808
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$5,936
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,425
• After-tax cash flow: $-873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $215,000 LARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $219,999 LARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $229,999 LARMLS
• 2012-06-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,543 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.