1612 34th St · Florence, OR 97439

$165,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 470 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1966 10,018 sqft lot Est $247k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great in town location and almost a 1/4-acre corner lot awaits your development ideas. The retro manufactured home is livable; however the value is (mainly) in the land. A one bedroom, one bath home with carport and multiple sheds exists for your future plans to be created in. With utilities already available and zoning that allows for multiple dwellings, this could be just the spot for builders and developers alike. Buyer to do perform diligence regarding City of Florence approvals and possible financing options.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1966

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-246/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.6% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#142 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Siuslaw SD 97J (town): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #106 of 183 in OR (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Siuslaw Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #263 of 412 statewide, top 68%, 520 students, 68% FRL); Siuslaw Middle School (math 15% / reading 37%, grade F, #101 of 128 statewide, top 80%, 270 students, 68% FRL); Siuslaw High School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #32 of 143 statewide, top 34%, 459 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 1,808 units permitted in Lane County in 2024 (972 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lane County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $141,742 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,220
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1612 34th St	0.00mi	1/1.0	470 (0%)	3mo	$150,000	$319	98
39 Easy St	0.40mi	1/1.0	416 (-12%)	3mo	$219,000	$526	60
46 Easy St	0.44mi	1/2.0	399 (-15%)	20mo	$217,500	$545	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $88,578
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $261,918
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97439

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,417 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $162,031

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $36	+0% $-21	+5% $-78	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-77	+0% $-21	+5% $35	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $21	base $-21	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 438-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $165,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥75°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,361
• − Management: −$1,361
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,055
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$733
• After-tax cash flow: $487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Siuslaw SD 97J
• NCES district ID: 4105100
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,892
• Composite: 36.82/100
• National rank: #9169
• State rank: #106 of 183 in OR

Livability — Florence

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #8094

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, OR
• Population (ZIP): 15,643

Population outlook (Lane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 391,933 people
• By 2030: 405,860 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 429,386 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 452,016 · +15.3%
• By 2075: 508,825 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 531,208 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lane

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.1) · D 60.0% · R 36.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.1 2020: D+24.3 2016: D+18.9 2012: D+23.4 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.79%
• Current HPI: 717.84
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+10.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $165,000 RMLS
• 2026-06-17 Delisted — RMLS
• 2026-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2026-03-26 Sold (MLS) $150,000 RMLS
• 2026-02-17 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-02-06 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $149,900 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $80 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.