731 Road 5814 · Dayton, TX 77327

$60,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured · 110 Days on market

Built 1982 Poor condition 10,454 sqft lot $60/sqft · 44% below area Est $108k · 44% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits at 731 Road 5814 in Cleveland, TX — a property offering space, flexibility, and future potential. Situated on a generous lot, this property includes an existing manufactured home, with the pricing thoughtfully positioned to reflect the strong value and possibilities of the land itself. Whether you’re looking to build, place a new home, or create your own private retreat, this property provides a great starting point with room to bring your vision to life. Enjoy peaceful surroundings while still maintaining convenient access to nearby amenities, major roadways, and the growing Liberty County area. An added bonus — the neighboring lot is also available for purchase, MLS # 41165096, creating a unique opportunity to expand your footprint, increase privacy, or secure additional land side-by-side. If you’ve been searching for land with flexibility and long-term potential, 731 Road 5814 is a property worth exploring.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Convenient access
• Private retreat

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• EXISTING MANUFACTURED HOME
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• NEIGHBORING LOT AVAILABLE
• ADDITIONAL LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $583 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,600 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.64%
• DSCR: 2.85
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,609
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: -44.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $28,718
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $78,298
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $818/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $583

Break-even live

Break-even rent $529

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $617	-5% $600	+0% $583	+5% $566	+10% $549
Rent	-10% $483	-5% $533	+0% $583	+5% $633	+10% $683
Rate	-1.0pp $613	-0.5pp $598	base $583	+0.5pp $567	+1.0pp $552

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	1d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $60,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $60,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-04-10
    status Active 975-char remark

    Show marketing remark (975 chars)

    Opportunity awaits at 731 Road 5814 in Cleveland, TX — a property offering space, flexibility, and future potential. Situated on a generous lot, this property includes an existing manufactured home, with the pricing thoughtfully positioned to reflect the strong value and possibilities of the land itself. Whether you’re looking to build, place a new home, or create your own private retreat, this property provides a great starting point with room to bring your vision to life. Enjoy peaceful surroundings while still maintaining convenient access to nearby amenities, major roadways, and the growing Liberty County area. An added bonus — the neighboring lot is also available for purchase, MLS # 41165096, creating a unique opportunity to expand your footprint, increase privacy, or secure additional land side-by-side. If you’ve been searching for land with flexibility and long-term potential, 731 Road 5814 is a property worth exploring.

15. 2026-04-07
    historical 975-char remark

    Show marketing remark (975 chars)

    Opportunity awaits at 731 Road 5814 in Cleveland, TX — a property offering space, flexibility, and future potential. Situated on a generous lot, this property includes an existing manufactured home, with the pricing thoughtfully positioned to reflect the strong value and possibilities of the land itself. Whether you’re looking to build, place a new home, or create your own private retreat, this property provides a great starting point with room to bring your vision to life. Enjoy peaceful surroundings while still maintaining convenient access to nearby amenities, major roadways, and the growing Liberty County area. An added bonus — the neighboring lot is also available for purchase, MLS # 41165096, creating a unique opportunity to expand your footprint, increase privacy, or secure additional land side-by-side. If you’ve been searching for land with flexibility and long-term potential, 731 Road 5814 is a property worth exploring.

16. 2026-02-25
    listed $60,000 Active 975-char remark

    Show marketing remark (975 chars)

    Opportunity awaits at 731 Road 5814 in Cleveland, TX — a property offering space, flexibility, and future potential. Situated on a generous lot, this property includes an existing manufactured home, with the pricing thoughtfully positioned to reflect the strong value and possibilities of the land itself. Whether you’re looking to build, place a new home, or create your own private retreat, this property provides a great starting point with room to bring your vision to life. Enjoy peaceful surroundings while still maintaining convenient access to nearby amenities, major roadways, and the growing Liberty County area. An added bonus — the neighboring lot is also available for purchase, MLS # 41165096, creating a unique opportunity to expand your footprint, increase privacy, or secure additional land side-by-side. If you’ve been searching for land with flexibility and long-term potential, 731 Road 5814 is a property worth exploring.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$280/yr (+$23/mo · 34.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$818
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,216
• − Management: −$1,216
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $6,426
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,542
• After-tax cash flow: $5,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations and repairs to bring it up to a livable condition. Immediate attention to cleaning and decluttering is essential to improve the property's value and appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severely worn and outdated
• Major bathroom fixtures — outdated and broken
• Major exterior siding — dirtied and worn
• Major flooring — worn and exposed subfloor
• Major interior walls — peeling paint and cluttered spaces
• Major windows — broken glass
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — cluttered and outdated appliances
• Major landscaping — cluttered and unkempt yard

Value-add opportunities

• Both extensive cleaning and decluttering — improves appearance and functionality
• Both new flooring — enhances aesthetics and comfort
• Both new kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizes the space and increases appeal
• Both new bathroom fixtures and paint — enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both new siding and paint — improves curb appeal and durability
• Both new HVAC system — enhances comfort and energy efficiency
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — enhances overall appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · severely worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated and broken	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · dirtied and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · worn and exposed subfloor	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · peeling paint and cluttered spaces	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · broken glass	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · cluttered and outdated appliances	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · cluttered and unkempt yard	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both extensive cleaning and decluttering — improves appearance and functionality ↑
• Both new flooring — enhances aesthetics and comfort ↑
• Both new kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizes the space and increases appeal ↑
• Both new bathroom fixtures and paint — enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both new siding and paint — improves curb appeal and durability ↑
• Both new HVAC system — enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — enhances overall appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $60,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $818 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.