11934 Detar Ct · Willis, TX 77378

$164,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,023 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $63/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

CHARMING NEW D. R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN WILLIAM TRAILS! Great Location with No Back Neighbors for Extra Privacy! Lovely Elevation with Covered Front Porch! Smart Home Features! Large Living Area is Open to Fantastic Kitchen with Granite Counters and Stainless Appliances! Privately Located Primary Suite Features Lovely Bathroom & Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Convenient Utility Room! Great Community! Zoned to Willis ISD! Move In Ready!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Walk-in closet
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SMART HOME FEATURES
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Inframark; Annual HOA fee

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Single-story entry (first floor living areas)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton
• Exterior features: Private yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 12x12; Bedroom (first floor) — 12x11; Bedroom (first floor) — 11x10
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $164,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $169,818.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edward B Cannan El (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 672 students, 74% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.09%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,818
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11943 Detar Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	0mo	$159,990	$156	96
11923 Detar Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	0mo	$164,990	$161	96
11926 Detar Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	2mo	$174,990	$171	95
11951 Detar Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	2mo	$174,990	$171	95
14526 William Trails Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	5mo	$167,990	$164	93
14542 William Trails Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	6mo	$170,990	$167	92
14562 William Trails Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	6mo	$168,990	$165	91
14566 William Trails Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	8mo	$169,990	$166	90
14606 William Trails Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	7mo	$167,990	$164	88
12098 William Trails Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	3mo	$176,004	$172	86
12015 William Trails Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	9mo	$164,990	$161	84
12019 William Trails Cir	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,002 (-2%)	5mo	$170,000	$170	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-20,655
• Equity at exit: $25,320

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-18,326
• Equity at exit: $14,683

Cash invested: $47,549 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,770 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,547/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,565

Max offer price $169,818

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $279	-5% $221	+0% $162	+5% $103	+10% $45
Rent	-10% $22	-5% $92	+0% $162	+5% $232	+10% $302
Rate	-1.0pp $248	-0.5pp $205	base $162	+0.5pp $118	+1.0pp $73

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,454
• Closing costs: $5,095
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,990 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,990 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,990 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 469-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $164,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,512
• − Property taxes: −$2,547
• − Insurance: −$849
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,700
• − Management: −$1,700
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$4,940
• Taxable loss: −$759
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$182
• After-tax cash flow: $2,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready home in William Trails offers a charming new build with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. The property is zoned to Willis ISD and is located in a great community with no back neighbors for extra privacy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace blinds with energy-efficient ones — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace blinds with energy-efficient ones — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $164,990 HARMLS