7800 Tayloe #119 · Independent Hill, VA 20112

$73,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 68 Days on market

Built 1991 871 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious, three bedroom home feels brand new! Center island kitchen w/ breakfast counter & 42" cabinetry - Master bedroom suite w/ private bath & large master closet - Open living room & dining area w/ hardwood style flooring - Full size washer & dryer - Excellent location minutes to PW Parkway & 95! Owner occupants only with financing options available - We have found an excellent source that requires only 5% downpayment (depending on credit). Call for information on the approval process.

Key facts

• Great location
• Eat in
• Close to shops

Tags

• KITCHEN WITH CENTER ISLAND
• 42 INCH CABINETS
• EAT IN
• GREAT LOCATION
• CLOSE TO SHOPS
• RESTAURANTS IN MANASSAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 35.0% vs local median 3.1% in Independent Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#449 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Prince William County Public School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #30 of 131 in VA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Coles Elementary (math 72% / reading 82%, grade A, #171 of 1,108 statewide, top 17%, 412 students, 42% FRL); Louise A. Benton Middle (math 53% / reading 81%, grade A-, #103 of 342 statewide, top 31%, 1,384 students, 21% FRL); Charles J. Colgan Sr. High (math 62% / reading 94%, grade A-, #80 of 319 statewide, top 25%, 2,907 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,418 units permitted in Prince William County in 2024 (625 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($195k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $505 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince William County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,620 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.70%
• DSCR: 5.57
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $99,633
• Equity at exit: $10,885

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.27×
• Total profit: $230,404
• Equity at exit: $6,312

Cash invested: $20,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20112

• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,853 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$383
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$91 /mo · $1,095/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$599
• Net cashflow: $1,749

Break-even live

Break-even rent $639

Max offer price $73,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,800	-5% $1,775	+0% $1,749	+5% $1,724	+10% $1,699
Rent	-10% $1,524	-5% $1,637	+0% $1,749	+5% $1,862	+10% $1,975
Rate	-1.0pp $1,786	-0.5pp $1,768	base $1,749	+0.5pp $1,730	+1.0pp $1,711

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,250
• Closing costs: $2,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 562-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $73,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-24
   price $73,000
5. 2026-02-21
   status Active
6. 2026-02-18
   status Pending
7. 2026-02-09
   listed $78,000 Active
8. 2021-04-30
   soldstatus $56,500 Closed 530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Spacious, three bedroom home feels brand new! Center island kitchen w/ breakfast counter & 42" cabinetry - Master bedroom suite w/ private bath & large master closet - Open living room & dining area w/ hardwood style flooring - Full size washer & dryer - Excellent location minutes to PW Parkway & 95! Owner occupants only with financing options available - We have found an excellent source that requires only 5% downpayment (depending on credit). Call for information on the approval process.

9. 2021-04-15
   status Pending 530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Spacious, three bedroom home feels brand new! Center island kitchen w/ breakfast counter & 42" cabinetry - Master bedroom suite w/ private bath & large master closet - Open living room & dining area w/ hardwood style flooring - Full size washer & dryer - Excellent location minutes to PW Parkway & 95! Owner occupants only with financing options available - We have found an excellent source that requires only 5% downpayment (depending on credit). Call for information on the approval process.

10. 2021-01-24
    listed $56,500 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Spacious, three bedroom home feels brand new! Center island kitchen w/ breakfast counter & 42" cabinetry - Master bedroom suite w/ private bath & large master closet - Open living room & dining area w/ hardwood style flooring - Full size washer & dryer - Excellent location minutes to PW Parkway & 95! Owner occupants only with financing options available - We have found an excellent source that requires only 5% downpayment (depending on credit). Call for information on the approval process.

11. 2018-04-20
    soldstatus $52,900 Closed 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Spacious, three bedroom home feels brand new! Center island kitchen w/ breakfast counter & 42" cabinetry - Master bedroom suite w/ private bath & large master closet - Open living room & dining area w/ hardwood style flooring - Full size washer & dryer - Excellent location minutes to PW Parkway & 95! Owner occupants only with financing options available - Call for approval process.

12. 2018-04-20
    soldstatus $52,900 Sold

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Spacious, three bedroom home feels brand new! Center island kitchen w/ breakfast counter & 42" cabinetry - Master bedroom suite w/ private bath & large master closet - Open living room & dining area w/ hardwood style flooring - Full size washer & dryer - Excellent location minutes to PW Parkway & 95! Owner occupants only with financing options available - Call for approval process.

13. 2018-04-03
    status Pending 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Spacious, three bedroom home feels brand new! Center island kitchen w/ breakfast counter & 42" cabinetry - Master bedroom suite w/ private bath & large master closet - Open living room & dining area w/ hardwood style flooring - Full size washer & dryer - Excellent location minutes to PW Parkway & 95! Owner occupants only with financing options available - Call for approval process.

14. 2018-03-21
    historical Active Under Contract 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Spacious, three bedroom home feels brand new! Center island kitchen w/ breakfast counter & 42" cabinetry - Master bedroom suite w/ private bath & large master closet - Open living room & dining area w/ hardwood style flooring - Full size washer & dryer - Excellent location minutes to PW Parkway & 95! Owner occupants only with financing options available - Call for approval process.

15. 2018-03-21
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Spacious, three bedroom home feels brand new! Center island kitchen w/ breakfast counter & 42" cabinetry - Master bedroom suite w/ private bath & large master closet - Open living room & dining area w/ hardwood style flooring - Full size washer & dryer - Excellent location minutes to PW Parkway & 95! Owner occupants only with financing options available - Call for approval process.

16. 2018-01-23
    price $52,900
17. 2017-11-25
    listed $52,900 Active 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Spacious, three bedroom home feels brand new! Center island kitchen w/ breakfast counter & 42" cabinetry - Master bedroom suite w/ private bath & large master closet - Open living room & dining area w/ hardwood style flooring - Full size washer & dryer - Excellent location minutes to PW Parkway & 95! Owner occupants only with financing options available - Call for approval process.

18. 2017-11-25
    listed $54,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Spacious, three bedroom home feels brand new! Center island kitchen w/ breakfast counter & 42" cabinetry - Master bedroom suite w/ private bath & large master closet - Open living room & dining area w/ hardwood style flooring - Full size washer & dryer - Excellent location minutes to PW Parkway & 95! Owner occupants only with financing options available - Call for approval process.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,089
• − Property taxes: −$1,095
• − Insurance: −$365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,739
• − Management: −$2,739
• − Depreciation: −$2,124
• Taxable income: $21,085
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,061
• After-tax cash flow: $15,932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince William County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103130
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $96,347
• Composite: 57.92/100
• National rank: #1041
• State rank: #30 of 131 in VA

Livability — Independent Hill

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #449
• US rank: #19246

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Prince William County · 452,627 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 30,500
• Household income: $195,467
• Rent vs Own: 3.4% rent · 96.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 51.0

Population outlook (Prince William County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,759 people
• By 2030: 582,629 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 665,916 · +23.4%
• By 2050: 740,796 · +37.2%
• By 2075: 900,980 · +66.9%
• By 2100: 985,833 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince William

• 2024 margin: D (+18.0) · D 57.6% · R 39.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: 15.9pp · 2024: 18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.0 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.0 2008: D+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -274.57%
• Current HPI: 288.6937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+38.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $73,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-21 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $78,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) $56,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-01-24 Listed $56,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-04-20 Sold (MLS) $52,900 MRIS
• 2018-04-20 Sold (MLS) $52,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-04-03 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-21 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-21 Pending — MRIS
• 2018-01-23 Price Changed $52,900 MRIS
• 2017-11-25 Listed $54,900 MRIS
• 2017-11-25 Listed $52,900 BRIGHT MLS