4015 Lakeshore Dr · Port Arthur, TX 77642

$115,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,534 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 239 Days on market

Built 1962 9,583 sqft lot $45/sqft · 30% below area Est $164k · 30% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This large home is ready to be called home with plenty of room to roam! 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths with over 2500 sq. ft. ! Also an investor's dream! Expand your investment portfolio with this large home!

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 239 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 5.0% in Port Arthur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,014 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Port Arthur ISD (urban): math 15% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #796 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.4%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.46%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,443
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -30.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
748 Queens Ct	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,848 (+12%)	10mo	$167,500	$59	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,090
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $46,644
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77642

• Rents YoY: 14.4%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,436/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,379

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $161	+0% $129	+5% $96	+10% $64
Rent	-10% $7	-5% $68	+0% $129	+5% $190	+10% $250
Rate	-1.0pp $187	-0.5pp $158	base $129	+0.5pp $99	+1.0pp $69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3021 Procter St Port Arthur, TX	4.0	1.5	1973	$1,850	$0.94	14d	1	1.11mi
2849 4th St Port Arthur, TX	3.0	1.5	2300	$1,000	$0.43	14d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 233 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 224 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 222 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 221 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 220 DOM
16. 2026-03-25
    price $115,000 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    This large home is ready to be called home with plenty of room to roam! 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths with over 2500 sq. ft. ! Also an investor's dream! Expand your investment portfolio with this large home!

17. 2025-10-22
    listed $125,000 Active 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    This large home is ready to be called home with plenty of room to roam! 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths with over 2500 sq. ft. ! Also an investor's dream! Expand your investment portfolio with this large home!

18. 2023-08-24
    status Active
19. 2023-08-05
    historical
20. 2023-08-02
    price $320,025
21. 2023-08-01
    listed $122,000 Active
22. 2006-06-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,436 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,436 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AH · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$3,436
• − Insurance: −$2,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,480
• − Management: −$1,480
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$82
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$20
• After-tax cash flow: $1,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Arthur ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835400
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $31,795
• Composite: 14.9/100
• National rank: #9373
• State rank: #796 of 826 in TX

Livability — Port Arthur

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1014
• US rank: #18061

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Arthur, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 38,358
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,358
• Household income: $42,950
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1775.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% Black 37% Two or more races 18% White 12% Asian 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% European 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 37% Vietnamese 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.58%
• Current HPI: 152.1615
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.42%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $115,000 BBOR
• 2025-10-22 Listed $125,000 BBOR
• 2023-08-24 Relisted — BBOR
• 2023-08-05 Delisted — BBOR
• 2023-08-02 Price Changed $320,025 BBOR
• 2023-08-01 Listed $122,000 BBOR
• 2006-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,436 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.