4837 Faith Home #187 · Keyes, CA 95307

$79,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · Manufactured · 2 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition Est $66k · 19% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Completely Remodeled & Move-In Ready! Welcome home to this beautifully renovated 2012 manufactured home located in an all-age community in the heart of Ceres! Offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, this stunning home has been updated from floor to ceiling with a brand-new kitchen, new flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, an updated bathroom, and stylish finishes throughout. Enjoy the privacy of your own fenced yard, perfect for relaxing, entertaining, kids, or pets. Priced at an incredible $79,000, this home is ideal for first-time buyers, those looking to downsize, or a growing family seeking comfort and affordability in a commuter-friendly, family-oriented community. Don't mis

Key facts

• Stylish finishes
• Fenced yard
• Brand new kitchen

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• STYLISH FINISHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located inside a mobile home park (address: 4837 Faith Home #187, Ceres, CA 95307); Not a senior community
• Financial info: Land lease: No (listing also shows a land lease amount of $1,195)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; no garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Single-wide; Made by Fleetwood; Built in 1973
• Construction: Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Front yard; Fenced; Regular-shaped lot; Roof listed as 'Other'

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric range
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Wall-mounted cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Stone countertops in the kitchen; Living room with unspecified 'Other' feature; Kitchen and family area combined; Pets allowed with limits; service animals OK
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $779 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 4.0% in Keyes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,280 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.26%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $66,216
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4837 Faith Home #118	0.07mi	2/2.0	720 (-3%)	10mo	$89,900	$125	79
4812 Esmar Rd #22	0.25mi	2/2.0	750 (+1%)	15mo	$84,000	$112	71
4812 Esmar Rd #11	0.24mi	2/1.0	728 (-2%)	18mo	$65,000	$89	70
4812 Esmar Rd #12	0.25mi	2/1.5	800 (+8%)	8mo	$56,000	$70	67
4812 Esmar Rd #7	0.24mi	2/2.0	840 (+13%)	8mo	$48,500	$58	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $36,836
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.34×
• Total profit: $96,063
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95307

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $779

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $79,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $69,900 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   remarks 695-char remark
5. 2026-06-17
   listed $69,900,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,610
• − Management: −$1,610
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $8,602
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,064
• After-tax cash flow: $7,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2012 manufactured home is completely remodeled and move-in ready, featuring updated kitchens and bathrooms, new flooring, and fresh paint. Ideal for first-time buyers or those seeking a comfortable and affordable living space in a family-friendly community.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Keyes

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1280
• US rank: #26476

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keyes, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 3,939
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,310
• Household income: $80,627
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1102.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 34% White 23% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -362.75%
• Current HPI: 307.5192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B