3586 E Lake Todd Dr · Hernando, FL 34442

$264,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,411 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 2019 7,200 sqft lot Est $227k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lakefront Community * 55 PLUS * build your dream home * City water and sewer * community center with pool, clubhouse, boat launch and docks. Beautiful and most successful adult community * Easy distance to Inverness or Ocala.

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• Built 2019

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Exterior features: Lot is approximately 7,200 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($127/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elementary School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 813 students, 71% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 448 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,325 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $227,171
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3658 E Arbor Lakes Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,515 (+7%)	3mo	$270,000	$178	81
3657 E Arbor Lakes Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-7%)	6mo	$260,000	$199	80
3622 E Arbor Lakes Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+13%)	2mo	$257,500	$161	74
3591 E Lake Todd Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,268 (-10%)	14mo	$320,000	$252	70
3748 E Lake Todd Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+9%)	11mo	$232,500	$151	68
3874 E Lake Todd Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+10%)	9mo	$245,000	$158	61
4497 N Lake Vista Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+14%)	3mo	$239,000	$148	58
4564 N Grass Island Ter	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,604 (+14%)	2mo	$250,000	$156	58
4160 E Fargo Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+4%)	5mo	$95,200	$65	54
4614 N Webster Island Ter	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (+13%)	9mo	$246,000	$154	53
3680 E Eagle Cove Ct	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,581 (+12%)	15mo	$257,050	$163	52
3515 E Flying Arrow Path	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-4%)	17mo	$230,000	$170	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-42,199
• Equity at exit: $39,363

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-36,262
• Equity at exit: $22,826

Cash invested: $73,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34442

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 448
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,063 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,499/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,050

Max offer price $264,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $160	-5% $85	+0% $11	+5% $-64	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-152	-5% $-71	+0% $11	+5% $92	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $78	base $11	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,000
• Closing costs: $7,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3723 N Chandler Dr Hernando, FL	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,400	$1.39	23d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-08
   listed $264,000 Under Contract

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,499 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,191 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$692/yr (+$58/mo · 46.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,788
• − Property taxes: −$1,499
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,981
• − Management: −$1,981
• − Depreciation: −$7,680
• Taxable loss: −$4,490
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,078
• After-tax cash flow: $1,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,281
• Household income: $57,259
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.70%
• Current HPI: 273.3262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1603.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed — ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-06-04 Listed $264,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2023-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-14 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $212,500 Public Records
• 2018-07-20 Sold (MLS) $12,500 RACC
• 2018-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records
• 2018-06-19 Listed $12,500 RACC
• 2016-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-26 Sold (MLS) $5,000 RACC
• 2015-06-29 Listed $9,000 RACC
• 2007-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-15 Sold (MLS) $30,000 RACC
• 2006-02-28 Listed $36,000 RACC
• 2001-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,499 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.