209 W 4th St · Miles, TX 76861

$164,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1965 0.31 ac lot $122/sqft · 22% below area Est $286k · 43% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a LARGE 3 bedroom/2 bath house, just waiting for a family! The current owner's pride really shows in this house - she left it in great condition. Upon entry through the front door, it just feels like home! New flooring, new tile work, updated bathrooms, tin roof (perfect for those rainy West Texas nights), a private wing - complete with an office/study! Electric and dishwasher to be updated/inspected/renovated before closing! This place is as clean as a whistle, and has too many other updates to list - come and see them for yourself! Step outside under the large pecan trees to see not one, but TWO storage barns/workshops, one of which is one of the oldest buildings in Miles! A doubl

Key facts

• Office study
• New tile work
• Tin roof

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• NEW TILE WORK
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• TIN ROOF
• PRIVATE WING
• OFFICE STUDY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#510 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Miles ISD (rural): math 67% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #55 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Runnels County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $123,293 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.63%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,444
• List price: $164,500
• Delta: -42.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Broadway St	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (-14%)	16mo	$148,900	$128	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,974
• Equity at exit: $69,732

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $42,326
• Equity at exit: $104,283

Cash invested: $46,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76861

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$863
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,184/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,409

Max offer price $139,907

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-46	-5% $-93	+0% $-139	+5% $-186	+10% $-232
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-188	+0% $-139	+5% $-91	+10% $-42
Rate	-1.0pp $-56	-0.5pp $-97	base $-139	+0.5pp $-182	+1.0pp $-225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,125
• Closing costs: $4,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $164,500 Pending 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,500 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,500 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $164,500 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $164,500 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $164,500 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $164,500 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $164,500 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-04-28
   price $164,500
10. 2026-03-30
    price $169,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,184 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,010 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$826/yr (+$69/mo · 37.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,215
• − Property taxes: −$2,184
• − Insurance: −$822
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,184
• − Management: −$1,184
• − Depreciation: −$4,785
• Taxable loss: −$4,579
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,099
• After-tax cash flow: $-572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miles ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830750
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,631
• Composite: 52.75/100
• National rank: #1547
• State rank: #55 of 826 in TX

Livability — Miles

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #510
• US rank: #10092

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miles, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,145

Population outlook (Runnels County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,754 people
• By 2030: 10,843 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 10,946 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 10,981 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 11,103 · +3.2%
• By 2100: 10,051 · -6.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Hungarian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Runnels

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.1) · D 11.1% · R 88.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -62.0pp · 2024: -77.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.1 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+74.1 2012: R+70.6 2008: R+62.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Current HPI: 172.6818
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $164,500 SAAR TX
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $169,500 SAAR TX

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,184 · +22.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.