12512 S 205th St · Gretna, NE 68028

$377,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,191 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 2025 6,490 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

!!RED TAG SALE JANUARY 2ND - 25TH!! D. R. Horton, America’s Builder, presents the Hamilton. This spacious Ranch home includes 4 Bedrooms and 3 Bathrooms. The Hamilton offers a Finished Basement providing nearly 2,200 square feet of total living space! As you make your way into the main living area, you’ll find an open Great Room featuring a cozy fireplace. The Gourmet Kitchen includes a Walk-In Pantry and a Large Island overlooking the Dining and Great Room. The Primary Bedroom offers a large Walk-In Closet, as well as an ensuite bathroom with dual vanity sink and walk-in shower. Two additional Large Bedrooms and the second full bathroom are split from the Primary Bedroom at the

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Finished basement
• Large island

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• OVERSIZED LIVING SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $377,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $379,043.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $378k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.5% in Gretna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#13 in NE, #1,227 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gretna Public Schools (suburban): math 64% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #6 of 111 in NE (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Gretna Elementary School (math 63% / reading 70%, grade B+, #74 of 502 statewide, top 15%, 463 students, 13% FRL); Gretna Middle School (math 60% / reading 57%, grade B, #21 of 128 statewide, top 17%, 728 students, 14% FRL); Gretna High School (math 63% / reading 64%, grade B-, #37 of 261 statewide, top 14%, 1,729 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 530 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,612 units permitted in Sarpy County in 2024 (364 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarpy County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $258,680 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $379,043
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12512 S 205th St	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,191 (0%)	1mo	$377,990	$173	100
12602 S 205th St	0.01mi	4/3.5	2,191 (0%)	1mo	$365,990	$167	97
12704 S 205th Ave	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,191 (0%)	0mo	$371,990	$170	94
12530 S 206th St	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,191 (0%)	0mo	$379,990	$173	94
12712 S 205th Ave	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,191 (0%)	1mo	$380,990	$174	93
12716 S 205th Ave	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,191 (0%)	1mo	$387,990	$177	93
12719 S 205th Ave	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,191 (0%)	2mo	$376,990	$172	92
20553 Swallowtail St	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,191 (0%)	1mo	$353,990	$162	91
20557 Swallowtail St	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,191 (0%)	2mo	$354,990	$162	90
12315 S 205th Ave	0.14mi	4/3.5	2,418 (+10%)	2mo	$397,990	$165	73
12405 S 205th Ave	0.11mi	4/3.5	2,452 (+12%)	1mo	$439,990	$179	72
12319 S 205th Ave	0.12mi	4/3.5	2,452 (+12%)	2mo	$445,990	$182	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-75,231
• Equity at exit: $56,517

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-91,801
• Equity at exit: $32,773

Cash invested: $106,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68028

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 530
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,587 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $789/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,799

Max offer price $349,394

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $47	-5% $-61	+0% $-168	+5% $-707	+10% $-838
Rent	-10% $-372	-5% $-270	+0% $-168	+5% $-66	+10% $37
Rate	-1.0pp $23	-0.5pp $-71	base $-168	+0.5pp $-266	+1.0pp $-366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,761
• Closing costs: $11,371
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12660 S 204th Ave Gretna, NE	4.0	2.0	1606	$2,695	$1.68	3d	1	0.10mi
304 Pontiac Dr Gretna, NE	4.0	1.5	1500	$2,000	$1.33	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   historical
3. 2026-04-24
   status Back On Market
4. 2026-04-24
   price $377,990
5. 2026-01-08
   status Pending
6. 2026-01-07
   price $359,990
7. 2026-01-02
   price $354,990
8. 2025-12-24
   price $359,990
9. 2025-11-10
   price $366,990
10. 2025-11-05
    listed $359,990 New
11. 2025-02-07
    soldstatus $1,252,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $789 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,539 · $545/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,750/yr (+$479/mo · 729.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,232
• − Property taxes: −$789
• − Insurance: −$1,895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,483
• − Management: −$2,483
• − Depreciation: −$11,027
• Taxable loss: −$8,868
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,128
• After-tax cash flow: $114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gretna Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3171220
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $89,845
• Composite: 58.21/100
• National rank: #1023
• State rank: #6 of 111 in NE

Livability — Gretna

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #1227

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sarpy County · 161,202 people
• City population: 17,529
• Metro: Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
• Population (ZIP): 17,529
• Household income: $143,604
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 339.0

Population outlook (Sarpy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 211,769 people
• By 2030: 229,365 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 264,122 · +24.7%
• By 2050: 298,087 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 381,667 · +80.2%
• By 2100: 448,180 · +111.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarpy

• 2024 margin: R (+11.7) · D 43.5% · R 55.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -15.9pp · 2024: -11.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.7 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+21.8 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.83%
• Current HPI: 242.6423
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.87%
• Metro: Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

-69.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — GPRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $377,990 GPRMLS
• 2026-01-08 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $359,990 GPRMLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $354,990 GPRMLS
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $359,990 GPRMLS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $366,990 GPRMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $359,990 GPRMLS
• 2025-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $1,252,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+39.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $789 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.