9953 US Rt 62 · Lake Waynoka, OH 45121

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · Manufactured public records · 261 Days on market

9,766 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling investors 3 bed 2 bath ranch ready for renovation. Eastern Schools, easy access to St Rt 32.

Key facts

• 9,766 sq ft lot
• Listed 261 days

Tags

• RANCH READY FOR RENOVATION
• EASY ACCESS TO ST RT 32

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.22 acres (less than 0.5 acre)
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric water heater; Public city street access
• Home design: Ranch-style single family home; One story; Residential zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Shed on the property; Cleared yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level; Primary bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Cooling: Other
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Crawl basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,010 in OH) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Eastern Local (rural): math 51% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #350 of 656 in OH (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 147 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brown County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $36k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.79%
• DSCR: 3.26
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $26,683
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.32×
• Total profit: $67,010
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45121

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,055 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $547/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $380

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $559	-5% $546	+0% $533	+5% $521	+10% $508
Rent	-10% $450	-5% $492	+0% $533	+5% $575	+10% $617
Rate	-1.0pp $556	-0.5pp $545	base $533	+0.5pp $522	+1.0pp $510

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 258 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 257 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 253 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 249 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 248 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 247 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 246 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 243 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 242 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 241 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 240 DOM
17. 2025-10-03
    listed $45,000 Active
18. 1996-05-21
    soldstatus $35,500
19. 1995-08-24
    soldstatus $31,000
20. 1994-09-20
    soldstatus $31,500
21. 1993-12-27
    soldstatus $11,900
22. 1988-11-18
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $547 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $624 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: +$78/yr (+$6/mo · 14.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$547
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,013
• − Management: −$1,013
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $6,035
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,448
• After-tax cash flow: $4,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastern Local
• NCES district ID: 3904603
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 47.81/100
• National rank: #2226
• State rank: #350 of 656 in OH

Livability — Lake Waynoka

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1010
• US rank: #19948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brown · 38,418 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 8,931
• Household income: $57,274
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 9.5

Population outlook (Brown County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,243 people
• By 2030: 39,382 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 35,196 · -14.7%
• By 2050: 30,743 · -25.5%
• By 2075: 21,870 · -47.0%
• By 2100: 15,069 · -63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Black 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brown

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.5) · D 19.0% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.2pp toward R · 2008: -23.3pp · 2024: -61.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.5 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+52.2 2012: R+25.1 2008: R+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.94%
• Current HPI: 290.4078
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+125.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-03 Listed $45,000 Cincy MLS
• 1996-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $35,500 Public Records
• 1995-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records
• 1993-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $11,900 Public Records
• 1988-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $547 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.