40595 Slough Way · Magnolia, TX 77354

$339,765

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,173 sqft · Land · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 $154/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Robin II by Smith Douglas Homes in Audubon offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and functionality with 4 bedrooms and 3.5 baths. Situated on a premium homesite with no rear neighbors and peaceful forest views, this thoughtfully designed home features an open-concept layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The main-level primary suite serves as a private retreat with a tray ceiling, dual vanities, a garden tub, and separate shower. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, a center island with pendant lighting, and ample cabinet space. Upstairs, a spacious game room is surrounded by three secondary bedrooms, including a private en suite bedroom and an additional full bath. A covered rear patio provides the perfect place to relax and enjoy the natural surroundings. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautifully appointed home in the sought-after Audubon community. AVAILABLE OCTOBER!

Key facts

• No rear neighbors
• Separate shower
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• PEACEFUL FOREST VIEWS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MAIN-LEVEL PRIMARY SUITE
• GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Community association: Goodwin & Company; Annual association fee of $1,850; Community features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction by Smith Douglas Homes); Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Fence (back yard); Sprinkler/irrigation system; Porch; Patio; Deck; Private yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Insulated doors; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo; Vanity; Window treatments; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings; Ventilation (improved indoor air quality)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $249,678 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $167,666
• Equity at exit: $306,087

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $490,108
• Equity at exit: $660,089

Cash invested: $95,134 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,497 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $764/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,710

Max offer price $309,997

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-72	+0% $-169	+5% $-265	+10% $-361
Rent	-10% $-366	-5% $-267	+0% $-169	+5% $-70	+10% $29
Rate	-1.0pp $3	-0.5pp $-82	base $-169	+0.5pp $-257	+1.0pp $-346

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,941
• Closing costs: $10,193
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	45d	1	0.40mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	0d	1	0.53mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	45d	1	0.55mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	0d	40	0.64mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	21d	1	0.66mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	45d	1	0.83mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	26d	1	0.86mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	26d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $339,765 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (925 chars)

   The Robin II by Smith Douglas Homes in Audubon offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and functionality with 4 bedrooms and 3.5 baths. Situated on a premium homesite with no rear neighbors and peaceful forest views, this thoughtfully designed home features an open-concept layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The main-level primary suite serves as a private retreat with a tray ceiling, dual vanities, a garden tub, and separate shower. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, a center island with pendant lighting, and ample cabinet space. Upstairs, a spacious game room is surrounded by three secondary bedrooms, including a private en suite bedroom and an additional full bath. A covered rear patio provides the perfect place to relax and enjoy the natural surroundings. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautifully appointed home in the sought-after Audubon community. AVAILABLE OCTOBER!

3. 2026-06-18
   listed $339,765 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (925 chars)

   The Robin II by Smith Douglas Homes in Audubon offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and functionality with 4 bedrooms and 3.5 baths. Situated on a premium homesite with no rear neighbors and peaceful forest views, this thoughtfully designed home features an open-concept layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The main-level primary suite serves as a private retreat with a tray ceiling, dual vanities, a garden tub, and separate shower. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, a center island with pendant lighting, and ample cabinet space. Upstairs, a spacious game room is surrounded by three secondary bedrooms, including a private en suite bedroom and an additional full bath. A covered rear patio provides the perfect place to relax and enjoy the natural surroundings. Don't miss this opportunity to own a beautifully appointed home in the sought-after Audubon community. AVAILABLE OCTOBER!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,218 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,454/yr (+$455/mo · 714.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,032
• − Property taxes: −$764
• − Insurance: −$1,699
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,397
• − Management: −$2,397
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$9,884
• Taxable loss: −$8,059
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,934
• After-tax cash flow: $-88/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $339,765 Zillow
• 2026-06-17 Listed $339,765 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $764 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.