22071 Highway 62 #54 · Shady Cove, OR 97539

$69,995

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Land public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1996 ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide manufactured home with 1,296 sq ft of comfortable living in a desirable 55+ community. This bright, open split-bedroom floor plan offers both space and privacy. Located in a quiet, low-traffic area of the park with great neighbors on both sides, the home has been exceptionally cared for and is clean and move-in ready. Enjoy the covered front porch, garden area, and additional storage with a utility shed. Conveniently close to shopping, dining, and other city services, with affordable space rent in a peaceful, friendly community.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Garden area
• Utility shed

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• GARDEN AREA
• UTILITY SHED
• QUIET LOW-TRAFFIC AREA
• DESIRABLE COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $845 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 2.2% in Shady Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#156 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Eagle Point SD 9 (suburban): math 26% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #134 of 183 in OR (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shady Cove School (237 students, 70% FRL); Eagle Point Middle School (393 students, 73% FRL); Eagle Point High School (999 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,795 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.75%
• DSCR: 3.30
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $42,492
• Equity at exit: $10,436

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.43×
• Total profit: $106,326
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97539

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $601/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $845

Break-even live

Break-even rent $565

Max offer price $69,995

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $885	-5% $865	+0% $845	+5% $825	+10% $806
Rent	-10% $716	-5% $781	+0% $845	+5% $910	+10% $974
Rate	-1.0pp $880	-0.5pp $863	base $845	+0.5pp $827	+1.0pp $809

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,499
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
297 Sowell Dr Unit B Shady Cove, OR	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,795	$1.34	14d	1	0.52mi
25 Sowell Ct Shady Cove, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,395	$1.39	44d	1	0.52mi
293 Sowell Dr Shady Cove, OR	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,950	$1.14	14d	1	0.53mi
400 Indian Trail Ct Shady Cove, OR	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,350	$1.24	22d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-12
   price $69,995
3. 2026-01-17
   listed $74,995 Active
4. 2025-12-31
   historical
5. 2025-11-17
   price $89,900
6. 2025-09-16
   price $95,900
7. 2025-07-18
   price $105,900
8. 2025-06-19
   price $108,500
9. 2025-06-12
   price $113,500
10. 2025-05-13
    listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $601 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $679 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$78/yr (+$7/mo · 13.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$601
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,569
• − Management: −$1,569
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $9,571
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,297
• After-tax cash flow: $7,846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eagle Point SD 9
• NCES district ID: 4104500
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,834
• Composite: 33.13/100
• National rank: #10630
• State rank: #134 of 183 in OR

Livability — Shady Cove

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #9143

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shady Cove, OR
• Population (ZIP): 3,349

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 3% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Lithuanian 8% Danish 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.55%
• Current HPI: 281.9845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-41.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $69,995 MLSCO
• 2026-01-17 Listed $74,995 MLSCO
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $89,900 MLSCO
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $95,900 MLSCO
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $105,900 MLSCO
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $108,500 MLSCO
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $113,500 MLSCO
• 2025-05-13 Listed $119,900 MLSCO

Property tax history

+26.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $601 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.