74 E Thompson Pl · Smallwood, NY 12778

$124,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily · 89 Days on market

Built 1940 Fair condition 7,501 sqft lot $160/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Motivated seller!! Sweet Smallwood 3 season cottage is now on the market. Considerable eat in kitchen has plenty of cabinets, gas stove and ample countertop space for large family meals. Plenty of social gathering space in the living room and a newly added spectacular family room perfect for movie nights with gorgeous, warming, propane fireplace. Step out onto wrap around deck for sunrise coffee or sunset cocktails. Grassy knoll can be fenced to create a private outdoor firepit lounge. Newer windows, wood floors and roof that is 8 years old.

Key facts

• Wood floors
• Eat in kitchen
• Wrap around deck

Tags

• EAT IN KITCHEN
• GAS STOVE
• WRAP AROUND DECK
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR FIREPIT LOUNGE
• NEWER WINDOWS
• WOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.9% in Smallwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,148 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Kenneth L Rutherford School (math 12% / reading 20%, grade F, #2,020 of 2,108 statewide, top 96%, 492 students, 81% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $117,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.74%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,276
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -57.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
53 Walnut St E	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	780 (0%)	13mo	$241,000	$309	84
74 W Read Ave	0.00mi	2/2.0	828 (+6%)	7mo	$169,000	$204	80
26 E Tusten	0.31mi	2/1.0	820 (+5%)	9mo	$107,500	$131	70
14 Seminole Trl S	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	748 (-4%)	1mo	$344,000	$460	66
91 W Oak St	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	676 (-13%)	11mo	$230,000	$340	64
23 W James Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0	735 (-6%)	11mo	$120,000	$163	62
58 Woodland Way	0.59mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (-4%)	2mo	$135,000	$180	60
9 W Mitchell St	0.46mi	1/1.0 (-1)	822 (+5%)	12mo	$170,000	$207	55
51 E Oak St	0.71mi	2/1.0	806 (+3%)	10mo	$169,450	$210	53
112 E Thompson Pl	0.66mi	2/1.0	840 (+8%)	7mo	$275,000	$327	51
39 E James Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	829 (+6%)	4mo	$265,000	$320	47
28 E Sullivan Pl	0.66mi	2/1.0	700 (-10%)	12mo	$145,000	$207	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $34,998
• Equity at exit: $56,160

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $96,709
• Equity at exit: $86,550

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $251,700 ($318/sqft)
• Median days on market: 75 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 12778

• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,489 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $399	-5% $356	+0% $313	+5% $270	+10% $227
Rent	-10% $195	-5% $254	+0% $313	+5% $372	+10% $431
Rate	-1.0pp $376	-0.5pp $345	base $313	+0.5pp $281	+1.0pp $248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 E Mitchell Smallwood, NY	2.0	1.0	570	$1,500	$2.63	68d	1	0.35mi
1087 New York 17B Unit B Mongaup Valley, NY	2.0	1.0	904	$1,450	$1.60	15d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEGCesspool sewerPrivate trash collection
• Home design: Single family residenceOne story
• Construction: Frame and vinyl siding constructionCrawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl sidingFrame constructionShed(s) on propertySloped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorElectric water heater
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heatingWall/window air conditioningSee remarks regarding heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)Eat-in kitchenHas fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $124,900 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $124,900 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $124,900 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $124,900 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $124,900 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $124,900 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $124,900 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $124,900 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $124,900 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $124,900 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $124,900 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $124,900 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $124,900 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $124,900 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $124,900 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $124,900 Active 65 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $124,900 Active 64 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $124,900 Active 63 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $124,900 Active 62 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $124,900 Active 61 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $124,900 Active 60 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $124,900 Active 59 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 57 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $124,900 Active 56 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $124,900 Active 55 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $124,900 Active 54 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 53 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 52 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 51 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $124,900 Active 50 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $124,900 Active 49 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $124,900 Active 48 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $124,900 Active 47 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $124,900 Active 46 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $124,900 Active 44 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $124,900 Active 42 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $124,900 Active 41 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $124,900 Active 38 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $124,900 Active 37 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $124,900 Active 36 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $124,900 Active 35 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $124,900 Active 33 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $124,900 Active 30 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $124,900 Active 29 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,900 Active 28 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 27 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 23 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 22 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,429
• − Management: −$1,429
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $1,878
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$451
• After-tax cash flow: $3,304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $19,500–$35,100 screening

The home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and improve the overall appearance. The property has a good roof and exterior, but the interior needs significant updates to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — outdated and in poor condition
• Major kitchen countertops — dated and in poor condition
• Major kitchen appliances — outdated and in poor condition
• Major kitchen flooring — dated and in poor condition
• Major kitchen walls — dated wallpaper and in poor condition

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new kitchen appliances — modern appliances will attract more buyers ↑
• Resale new kitchen cabinets and countertops — new cabinets and countertops will improve the kitchen's functionality and appearance ↑
• Resale new flooring in kitchen — new flooring will improve the kitchen's appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale new kitchen walls — new walls will improve the kitchen's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — improved landscaping and curb appeal will attract more buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Kenneth L Rutherford School F NY #2,020/2,108 Nat'l #36,039/41,679 Middle Robert J Kaiser Middle School F NY #661/729 Nat'l #11,464/14,009 High Monticello High School C NY #879/1,100 Nat'l #3,973/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

D Composite livability gradescore 54/100

Livability — Smallwood

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1148
• US rank: #23933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smallwood, NY
• County: Sullivan · 68,974 people
• City population: 456
• Population (ZIP): 456
• Household income: $66,406
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own

---

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 35% Romanian 19% Portuguese 11%
• Foreign-born: 28%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 17%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric service by NYSEGCesspool sewerPrivate trash collection
• Home design: Single family residenceOne story
• Construction: Frame and vinyl siding constructionCrawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl sidingFrame constructionShed(s) on propertySloped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorElectric water heater
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heatingWall/window air conditioningSee remarks regarding heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)Eat-in kitchenHas fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $124,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $124,400 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $124,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-17 Listed $129,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-17 Listed $129,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-04 Listed $129,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid