3114 Hartsville Rd · Houston, TX 77051

$149,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1961 6,050 sqft lot $118/sqft · 16% below area Est $178k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Solid mid-century 3/1.5 brick home in the heart of Sugar Valley. This 1,260 sq. ft. residence features a functional layout on a spacious 6,050 sq. ft. lot with a large backyard. Located just 10–15 minutes from the Texas Medical Center, Downtown, and Hobby Airport. Enjoy nearby Sunnyside Park (pool, trails, tennis) and the modern Sunnyside Multi-Service Center. Perfect for investors or first-time buyers seeking a high-connectivity location with no mandatory HOA.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Spacious lot
• 6,050 sq ft lot

Tags

• MID-CENTURY BRICK HOME
• LARGE BACKYARD
• SPACIOUS LOT
• HIGH-CONNECTIVITY LOCATION
• NEARBY SUNNYSIDE PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with space for 1 car
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1961; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 13x11, 11x10, 10x10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,859/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $149k implies a 577% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.79%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,097
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -16.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3110 Brisbane St	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,103 (-12%)	3mo	$125,000	$113	74
3018 Elpyco St	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,215 (-4%)	1mo	$187,000	$154	65
10209 Cathedral Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,244 (-1%)	3mo	$180,000	$145	65
10818 Carlton Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,246 (-1%)	2mo	$175,999	$141	64
11018 Long Gate	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,242 (-1%)	2mo	$130,000	$105	64
3034 Corksie St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,225 (-3%)	0mo	$219,900	$180	63
11416 Lucky Falls Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,404 (+11%)	2mo	$291,388	$208	48
2614 Afton Heights Way	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,384 (+10%)	1mo	$279,990	$202	45
2818 Milton Lodge Ln	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,384 (+10%)	2mo	$279,990	$202	45
11418 Lucky Falls Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,422 (+13%)	3mo	$294,262	$207	45
2814 Milton Lodge Ln	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,384 (+10%)	3mo	$279,990	$202	44
10204 Penryn Forest Trl	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,384 (+10%)	1mo	$284,990	$206	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $108,482
• Equity at exit: $134,231

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.39×
• Total profit: $308,149
• Equity at exit: $289,474

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,859 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $2,999/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,384

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $460	-5% $417	+0% $375	+5% $333	+10% $291
Rent	-10% $228	-5% $302	+0% $375	+5% $449	+10% $522
Rate	-1.0pp $450	-0.5pp $413	base $375	+0.5pp $337	+1.0pp $297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	22d	1	0.44mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	5d	1	0.44mi
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	44d	1	0.48mi
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	18d	1	0.54mi
10415 Lancaster Ln Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1937	$2,525	$1.30	21d	1	0.63mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	44d	1	0.96mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	6d	1	1.02mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	44d	1	1.03mi
11806 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,636	$1.48	16d	1	1.16mi
11806 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1107	$1,636	$1.48	44d	1	1.16mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 11857 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,362	$1.54	44d	1	1.17mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,290	$1.46	8d	1	1.17mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,290	$1.46	6d	1	1.17mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,320	$1.49	0d	1	1.17mi
11800 City Park Central Ln Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	885	$1,314	$1.48	11d	1	1.17mi
3020 Gunnersbury Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,499	$0.90	15d	1	1.22mi
4015 Marchant Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	44d	1	1.25mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,228	$1.01	0d	3	1.27mi
2920 Stamford Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,200	$1.30	44d	1	1.28mi
11900 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$1,645	$1.88	0d	25	1.31mi
11900 Oakmoor Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,469	$1.65	3d	12	1.40mi
11906 City Park Central Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,399	$1.35	44d	1	1.42mi
11915 Sanspereil Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,695	$1.30	3d	1	1.42mi
12207 Duane Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,646	$1.06	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $149,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-05-18
    price $171,000 471-char remark
13. 2026-05-04
    listed $190,000 Active 471-char remark
14. 2025-03-13
    soldstatus
15. 2024-04-02
    soldstatus
16. 1994-08-08
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,999 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,999 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,999
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,785
• − Management: −$1,785
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $2,313
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$555
• After-tax cash flow: $3,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+577.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $171,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,999 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.