7405 Harper Rd · Middle Valley, TN 37343

$134,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,358 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1960 0.48 ac lot Est $227k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors and visionaries! This rare Hixson multi-parcel opportunity offers incredible potential for the right buyer looking to renovate, rebuild, or redevelop. The property includes three adjoining parcels. The main parcel features a brick ranch home ready for renovation, perfect for those looking to add value through updates and improvements. A second parcel includes an older structure that may require extensive repairs or possible removal, offering an opportunity for new construction or redevelopment. The third parcel is a vacant lot, providing even more possibilities. With the parcels already adjoining, this property presents multiple investment strategies, whether you choos

Key facts

• Vacant lot
• Brick ranch home
• 0.48 acre lot

Tags

• MULTI-PARCEL OPPORTUNITY
• BRICK RANCH HOME
• VACANT LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Approximately 1,358 above-grade finished square feet
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed; Lot roughly 0.48 acres (approximately 105 x 200) with additional parcels 082K A 018 & 082K A 017

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace; Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.9% in Middle Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#127 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Middle Valley Elementary (math 53% / reading 43%, grade D, #138 of 952 statewide, top 14%, 782 students, 0% FRL); Hixson Middle School (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #162 of 333 statewide, top 50%, 607 students, 0% FRL); Hixson High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #104 of 332 statewide, top 33%, 935 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 459 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $135k implies a 296% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.39%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,786
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7208 Cane Hollow Rd	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,420 (+5%)	4mo	$375,000	$264	70
1153 Coffelt Rd	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,224 (-10%)	10mo	$204,000	$167	66
1050 Hillcrest Rd	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,532 (+13%)	9mo	$250,000	$163	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $19,635
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $67,320
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37343

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 459
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,957 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $559/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,110

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
151 Integra Vistas Dr Hixson, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$1,883	$1.84	14d	36	1.26mi
6553 Old Dayton Pike Hixson, TN	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,695	$1.00	23d	1	1.32mi
825 S Valleywood Cir Hixson, TN	3.0	2.5	1828	$2,000	$1.09	23d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-08
   price $134,900
2. 2026-04-21
   price $139,900
3. 2026-03-31
   price $149,900
4. 2026-03-15
   listed $169,900 Active
5. 1986-02-14
   soldstatus $34,064

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $559 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $958 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$399/yr (+$33/mo · 71.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,489
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$559
• − Insurance: −$1,472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,879
• − Management: −$1,879
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $6,219
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,493
• After-tax cash flow: $6,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

Livability — Middle Valley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #11835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle Valley, TN
• County: Hamilton County · 312,777 people
• City population: 44,572
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 45,101
• Household income: $82,227
• Rent vs Own: 24.0% rent · 76.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1152.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -324.61%
• Current HPI: 260.3778
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+296.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $134,900 GCAR
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $139,900 GCAR
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $149,900 GCAR
• 2026-03-15 Listed $169,900 GCAR
• 1986-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $34,064 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $559 · +20.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.