23513 Flickering Sky Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$238,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,642 sqft lot Est $261k · 9% under $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion August 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• 6,642 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Elm Creek HOA) with a $55 monthly fee covering common area maintenance; Community playground, park, pool, and trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 covered spaces, total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces northeast; New construction
• Construction: Built by Lennar; Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Porch; Privacy fencing; Back yard; Front yard; Interior lot; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($-3/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,998 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.00%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,450
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13409 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,575 (0%)	1mo	$248,990	$158	96
13400 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-4%)	1mo	$257,990	$171	83
13324 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-4%)	2mo	$252,990	$168	82
13316 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-4%)	1mo	$250,999	$166	82
23821 Glowing Embers Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+6%)	1mo	$245,999	$148	74
13421 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	1mo	$241,999	$173	73
13405 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-10%)	2mo	$237,990	$169	73
13321 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-10%)	1mo	$237,999	$169	73
23829 Glowing Embers Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+6%)	2mo	$249,990	$150	72
13309 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	2mo	$226,990	$162	70
23501 Firelight Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-10%)	2mo	$228,990	$162	70
23817 Glowing Embers Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-6%)	1mo	$221,990	$151	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $130,475
• Equity at exit: $215,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.75×
• Total profit: $384,906
• Equity at exit: $464,322

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,160 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,160

Max offer price $238,959

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	20d	1	0.16mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	22d	1	0.26mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	17d	1	0.26mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R4 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$589	$0.29	43d	1	0.36mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	16d	1	0.60mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	43d	1	0.62mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	16d	1	0.70mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	24d	1	0.70mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	2d	1	0.75mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	24d	1	0.76mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	43d	1	0.77mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	24d	1	0.86mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	0.87mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	17d	1	0.93mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	24d	1	0.99mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	4d	1	0.99mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	20d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,999 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,999 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,999 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,999 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,999 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $238,999 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $258,999 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $258,999 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $258,999 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $258,999 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $258,999 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $258,999 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $258,999 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $258,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,585
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,074
• − Management: −$2,074
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$4,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$962
• After-tax cash flow: $959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-family home is move-in ready with a modern design and no visible signs of wear or damage. It offers a convenient single-level layout and is estimated to be completed in August 2026.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $258,999 Unlock MLS