10785 SW 78th Ave · Liberty Triangle, FL 34476

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,646 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1990 0.31 ac lot Est $265k · 21% under $121/mo HOA · 7% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home to Palm Cay — Where Lifestyle Meets Comfort! Step inside this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence and experience effortless Florida living. The well-appointed kitchen features stainless-steel appliances, generous counter space, and abundant cabinetry, making it perfect for both everyday meals and entertaining. Sliding glass doors lead to your enclosed lanai, an ideal space for grilling, relaxing, or hosting friends year-round. Located in the highly desirable Palm Cay community, residents enjoy an impressive lineup of resort-style amenities, including a sparkling pool and hot tub, pickleball and basketball courts, shuffleboard, horseshoes, and more. Th

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Pickleball courts
• Basketball courts

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ENCLOSED LANAI
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• HOT TUB
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• BASKETBALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $121 (Heritage Management); Association approval required; Clubhouse; Fitness center; Deed restrictions; Pets allowed; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built using typical residential construction materials
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($454/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Liberty Triangle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 852 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $165k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,612 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,006
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11027 SW 75th Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,625 (-1%)	1mo	$235,000	$145	80
7536 SW 107th Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,545 (-6%)	4mo	$288,615	$187	75
10696 SW 74th Ter	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,485 (-10%)	2mo	$225,000	$152	68
7333 SW 107th Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+2%)	6mo	$320,040	$191	66
10660 SW 73rd Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,745 (+6%)	3mo	$252,500	$145	65
11365 SW 77th Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+5%)	2mo	$235,000	$136	63
11233 SW 73rd Cir	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (-0%)	4mo	$245,000	$150	60
11148 SW 73rd Cir	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,745 (+6%)	5mo	$285,000	$163	60
10361 SW 83rd Ter	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-6%)	5mo	$248,900	$161	54
8004 SW 108th Loop	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,514 (-8%)	4mo	$223,500	$148	53
10804 SW 81st Court Rd	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,421 (-14%)	1mo	$229,900	$162	52
10742 SW 71st Cir	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,816 (+10%)	1mo	$299,500	$165	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-36,972
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-49,779
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34476

• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,826 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,141/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$121
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,778

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $97	+0% $38	+5% $-22	+10% $-81
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-34	+0% $38	+5% $110	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $91	base $38	+0.5pp $-17	+1.0pp $-72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8130 SW 108th Street Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1084	$1,975	$1.82	21d	1	0.42mi
10819 SW 83rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1601	$1,495	$0.93	21d	1	0.59mi
10061 SW 74th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1894	$1,995	$1.05	14d	1	0.75mi
7750 SW 100th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1805	$1,750	$0.97	14d	1	0.76mi
7750 SW 100th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1805	$1,795	$0.99	21d	1	0.76mi
7867 SW 115th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,600	$1.09	21d	1	0.77mi
10441 SW 85th Ct Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,495	$1.37	21d	1	0.87mi
8669 SW 108th Ln Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	1152	$1,250	$1.09	21d	1	0.90mi
8744 SW 108th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,200	$1.36	21d	1	0.93mi
8287 SW 116th St Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1181	$1,550	$1.31	21d	1	1.08mi
8947 SW 108th Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1096	$1,500	$1.37	21d	1	1.18mi
8757 SW 97th Lane Rd Unit C Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$1,600	$1.07	14d	1	1.27mi
8935 SW 102nd Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,500	$1.31	21d	1	1.27mi
8655 SW 98th Street Rd Unit G Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1424	$1,500	$1.05	21d	1	1.33mi
10912 SW 69th Cir Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1169	$1,600	$1.37	21d	1	1.34mi
8670 SW 97th St Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1341	$1,600	$1.19	21d	1	1.38mi
8671 SW 97th St Unit C Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1341	$1,474	$1.10	14d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $121 · $1,452/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   price $210,000
3. 2026-03-26
   price $217,000
4. 2026-03-05
   price $222,000
5. 2026-02-16
   price $227,000
6. 2026-01-22
   price $232,000
7. 2026-01-12
   listed $239,000 Active
8. 2006-08-30
   soldstatus $165,000
9. 2006-05-05
   listed $169,900
10. 1995-12-29
    soldstatus $73,000
11. 1990-10-01
    soldstatus $83,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,141 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$602/yr (+$50/mo · 52.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,141
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,753
• − Management: −$1,753
• − HOA: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,108
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$746
• After-tax cash flow: $1,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Liberty Triangle

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Liberty Triangle, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 26,397
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,997
• Household income: $65,860
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 204.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.22%
• Current HPI: 189.0869
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.57%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+150.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $217,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $222,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $227,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $232,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Listed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-05 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 1990-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $83,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,141 · +25.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.