9611 Quebec St · Lake Erie Beach, NY 14006

$179,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1955 6,000 sqft lot Est $206k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner, rectangular residential lot (approx. 60 x 100); Beach access to a lake

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity available and connected (circuit breakers); Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction; Faces unspecified direction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Copper plumbing; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Oven; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating via forced air; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($764/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Erie Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#836 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Evans-Brant Central School District (Lake Shore) (suburban): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #424 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: A J Schmidt Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 246 students, 54% FRL); William G Houston Middle School (math 15% / reading 43%, grade F, #566 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 503 students, 0% FRL); Lake Shore Senior High School (math 92% / reading 95%, grade A+, #131 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 671 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $180k implies a 291% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $165,000 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.52%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,280
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
255 Kennedy Ave	0.10mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,030 (-5%)	5mo	$190,000	$184	78
163 Rosewood Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,113 (+3%)	11mo	$82,500	$74	58
9744 Lenox St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,072 (-1%)	21mo	$205,000	$191	50
145 Arthur Ave	0.43mi	1/1.0 (-1)	930 (-14%)	5mo	$168,000	$181	48
9364 Lake Shore Rd	0.61mi	2/2.0	988 (-8%)	7mo	$290,000	$294	47
171 Humboldt Ave	0.39mi	2/1.0	960 (-11%)	22mo	$45,000	$47	44
9690 Oak Grove Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+11%)	22mo	$365,000	$304	38
64 Summerdale Rd	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,032 (-4%)	21mo	$325,000	$315	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-25,076
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-16,524
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14006

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,658/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,569

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $115	+0% $64	+5% $13	+10% $-38
Rent	-10% $-67	-5% $-2	+0% $64	+5% $129	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $109	base $64	+0.5pp $17	+1.0pp $-30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9563 Oakland St Angola, NY	3.0	1.0	1352	$1,650	$1.22	45d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $179,900 Active
3. 2013-05-21
   listed $74,900
4. 2007-04-27
   soldstatus $46,000
5. 1996-12-03
   soldstatus $48,000
6. 1994-09-08
   soldstatus $35,151

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,658 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,849 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: +$191/yr (+$16/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,658
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$537
• After-tax cash flow: $1,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Evans-Brant Central School District (Lake Shore)
• NCES district ID: 3616560
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,433
• Composite: 40.89/100
• National rank: #3619
• State rank: #424 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Erie Beach

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #836
• US rank: #16262

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Erie Beach, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,354

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Asian 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Italian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.95%
• Current HPI: 401.7461
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+411.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $179,900 WNYREIS
• 2013-05-21 Listed $74,900 WNYREIS
• 2007-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 1996-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $35,151 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,658 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.